Rep. Thomas Massie enters Kentucky’s Republican primary with leads in recent polling and prediction markets despite a major effort by President Donald Trump and allied groups to unseat him.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Rep. Thomas Massie appears positioned to withstand a high-profile Republican primary challenge in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District as multiple polls and political betting markets show the seven-term congressman leading Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein less than two weeks before Election Day.
Massie heads into the May 19 Republican primary with advantages in both publicly released surveys and online prediction markets, despite heavy opposition from President Donald Trump and pro-Trump political organizations seeking to remove the Kentucky congressman from office.
A Big Data Poll survey released April 8 found Massie leading Gallrein 52.4% to 47.6% after undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward.
The survey, conducted independently through the firm’s crowdfunded Public Polling Project rather than by a campaign, sampled 433 likely Republican primary voters between April 3-4 and April 6-7. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A separate Quantus Insights survey conducted April 6-7 showed Massie with a wider lead, placing him at 46.8% compared to Gallrein’s 37.7%, while 14% of respondents remained undecided.
That poll surveyed 438 likely Republican voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Political wagering markets have also reflected confidence in Massie’s standing.
As of Saturday, Polymarket listed Massie with a 77% probability of winning the Republican nomination, compared to 23% for Gallrein, based on approximately $498,000 in trading volume. Newsweek separately reported that Kalshi markets placed Massie’s odds at 72%.
Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL and farmer, received Trump’s endorsement in October as the president intensified criticism of Massie following several high-profile policy disagreements.
Trump traveled to Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11 to campaign against the incumbent congressman, according to Roll Call, where he described Massie as “a disaster for our party” and “the worst person.”
Trump also escalated attacks through a Truth Social post in March, writing that Massie would “go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress” and would “hopefully lose BIG.”
The conflict between Trump and Massie intensified after the Kentucky congressman repeatedly opposed portions of Trump’s legislative and foreign policy agenda.
According to Newsweek, Massie voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and opposed U.S. military strikes targeting Iran.
Massie also partnered with Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., in a bipartisan effort seeking the release of Justice Department files connected to Jeffrey Epstein.
Gallrein’s campaign has received backing from Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., along with financial support from MAGA KY, a pro-Trump super PAC that has invested millions of dollars into advertising targeting Massie.
Massie, meanwhile, has secured support from Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who has defended the congressman amid the escalating primary battle.
Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District includes northeastern portions of the state, including suburbs surrounding Cincinnati and exurban areas near Louisville.
The Cook Political Report classifies the district as Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18, making the Republican nominee the overwhelming favorite in the general election.
Original article
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