By Elsie Kamsiyochi
The alliance is preparing to raise oil production targets once again, even as escalating conflict in the Gulf continues to choke off supply routes and destabilize global energy markets.
According to sources familiar with internal discussions, key producers have reached an agreement in principle to increase output quotas in June—marking the third consecutive monthly hike.
However, despite the decision on paper, the বাস্তব impact of this increase is expected to be minimal for now. Ongoing hostilities tied to the have led to the closure of the vital , one of the world’s most critical النفط transit chokepoints. As a result, several major exporters are unable to move additional crude to global markets.
Symbolic Increase Amid Real Constraints
Seven leading OPEC+ members—, , , , , , and —are expected to formalize the increase during an upcoming policy meeting. The planned boost is estimated at roughly 188,000 barrels per day.
Yet, industry insiders caution that the increase will remain largely symbolic until shipping lanes reopen. With the Hormuz passage blocked, exports from major Gulf producers—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait—have been severely curtailed. Even before the conflict, these nations were among the few capable of ramping up output quickly.
Complicating matters further, —also part of the broader OPEC+ grouping—has seen its own exports restricted by a U.S.-led blockade imposed earlier in April.
UAE Exit Reshapes Production Dynamics
Adding another layer of uncertainty is the recent departure of the from both OPEC and OPEC+. The UAE had been one of the key participants in monthly quota decisions and a significant contributor to production flexibility within the group. Its exit means the upcoming quota increase excludes its share, slightly reducing the overall حجم of the planned hike.
Despite this, the decision signals that OPEC+ intends to maintain a “business-as-usual” approach—at least in principle—demonstrating readiness to increase supply once geopolitical conditions stabilize.
Oil Prices Surge as Supply Tightens
The disruption has already sent shockwaves through global markets. Oil prices have surged above $125 per barrel, reaching their highest levels in four years. Analysts warn that if the الأزمة persists, the world could face jet fuel shortages within one to two months, alongside renewed inflationary pressures across major economies.
Executives and traders say that even if the reopens soon, it could take weeks—or even months—for supply chains to fully recover and for production increases to translate into actual exports.
Production Already Under Pressure
Recent data highlights the scale of disruption. Total crude output across OPEC+ members dropped sharply in March, with production falling by millions of barrels per day compared to February levels. The steepest declines came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, both heavily reliant on Gulf export routes.
Outside the region, Russia has also been forced to scale back output following infrastructure damage from ongoing conflict-related attacks.
Uncertain Outlook for Energy Markets
While the planned quota hike suggests confidence among producers, the broader outlook remains highly uncertain. Much will depend on how quickly the Gulf الأزمة can be resolved and whether key النفط corridors can be restored.
Until then, the gap between policy decisions and physical supply is likely to persist—leaving global markets volatile and increasingly vulnerable to further shocks.
Source Reuters
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