Strait of Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Halt as Ceasefire Fails to Restore Confidence

By Emmanuel Bobby

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill Thursday, underscoring how fragile the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains and how deeply uncertainty continues to grip global shipping routes. Despite the announcement of a truce, only a handful of vessels dared to pass through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

Data from ship-tracking services showed that just five bulk carriers transited the strait in the first 24 hours following the agreement. Other estimates placed the total at around nine vessels across two days. Even allowing for gaps in tracking—caused by ships disabling or spoofing GPS signals—the numbers represent a dramatic collapse compared to the usual flow of more than 100 ships per day.

The slowdown has fallen far short of the “total reopening” demanded by President Donald Trump as part of the ceasefire conditions. Instead, what has emerged is a hesitant trickle of movement, as shipowners, insurers and crews weigh the risks of navigating waters that remain volatile and politically contested.

Oil Markets React to Lingering Uncertainty

The disruption has sent immediate shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel as initial optimism over the ceasefire faded, replaced by fears that supply routes could remain constrained for an extended period.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. During the conflict, Iran targeted multiple vessels and warned it would strike any ships linked to the United States or Israel. Those threats effectively choked off traffic, leaving dozens of vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Shipping industry leaders say many of those ships are eager to leave—but not at any cost. Jakob Larsen, a senior maritime safety official, noted that operators are waiting for clear guidance from both Washington and Tehran on how to safely navigate the strait. Without such assurances, many companies are unwilling to risk their vessels or crews.

Dispute Over Whether the Strait Is Truly Open

At the heart of the crisis is a fundamental disagreement over the status of the waterway. Iranian officials have signaled that transit is not fully unrestricted, insisting that vessels must seek permission before passing through. They have also suggested that ships could be required to pay fees for safe passage.

A map released by Iran’s navy appeared to reinforce these concerns. It outlined specific shipping corridors for vessels entering and leaving the Persian Gulf, directing traffic along routes closer to Iranian territory than those typically used before the conflict. Large portions of the strait were marked as hazardous, raising fears that mines or other threats may still be present.

Iranian officials have emphasized the need for caution, framing the restrictions as necessary for maritime safety. However, this stance sharply contrasts with that of U.S. officials, who have at times suggested the strait has effectively reopened.

Leaders in the Gulf region have pushed back strongly against that claim. Energy and government officials warn that access to the strait remains controlled and uncertain, not free and unrestricted as global markets require.

Calls for International Intervention

The ongoing confusion has prompted discussions among international partners about how to secure safe passage through the strait. European officials say plans are being finalized for a potential naval escort mission to protect commercial vessels once conditions stabilize.

However, it remains unclear how such an operation would function alongside Iran’s conditions for transit. Any misalignment could risk further escalation or create additional complications for shipping companies already navigating a highly unpredictable environment.

Meanwhile, frustration is growing among countries heavily dependent on the route. European and Gulf leaders have stressed that freedom of navigation must be fully restored without fees, restrictions or political conditions.

Legal Questions Over Iran’s “Tollbooth” Approach

Iran’s suggestion that ships may need to pay for passage has sparked intense debate among legal experts. Some have described the idea as a “tollbooth” system that could set a dangerous precedent for international waterways.

Under widely accepted maritime norms, straits used for global navigation are expected to remain open to transit without interference. However, the legal picture is complicated by the fact that Iran has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which enshrines these principles.

Experts note that while there are limited precedents for transit fees—such as in Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait—those arrangements are based on broad international agreement. Replicating such a system in Hormuz without global consensus would likely face strong resistance.

The situation is further complicated by geography. Parts of the shipping lanes pass through Oman’s territorial waters, and Oman is bound by international law to allow uninterrupted transit. Analysts say it is highly unlikely that Oman would support any system that restricts passage or aligns it too closely with Iran’s conditions.

Shipping Industry Paralyzed by Confusion

Beyond legal and diplomatic disputes, the immediate impact is being felt most acutely by the shipping industry itself. Companies face a maze of unanswered questions: whether permission is required, how fees might be enforced, and whether compliance could violate international sanctions.

Some vessels, including those from major trading nations, remain anchored in long queues awaiting clarity. Analysts say policies have shifted rapidly in recent days, adding to the confusion. Reports of Iran experimenting with different payment methods—including foreign currency and even cryptocurrency—have only deepened uncertainty.

For ship crews, the crisis is deeply personal. Many seafarers have found themselves stranded for weeks in dangerous conditions, unable to leave their vessels or return home.

One such mariner, who recently completed a difficult journey out of the region, described the ordeal as something few had anticipated when they signed up for the job. After navigating multiple countries to reach safety, he said many of his colleagues remain stuck, waiting for the moment when it is finally safe to sail.

A Critical Waterway Still in Limbo

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with no clear timeline for a full return to normal operations. While the ceasefire has reduced immediate hostilities, it has not restored the confidence needed to restart one of the world’s most vital shipping corridors.

Until clear rules, guarantees of safety, and unified international agreement are established, the strait is likely to remain in a state of limbo—its waters open in theory, but effectively closed in practice.