BY COMFORT OGBONNA
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed increasing signs of strain on Friday, just one day before both sides are scheduled to begin negotiations in Pakistan. The situation has become more complicated as Washington accused Tehran of failing to honor commitments regarding the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, while renewed military actions in Lebanon added further uncertainty to the already delicate truce.
At the center of the dispute is Iran’s continued restriction of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor that typically handles a significant portion of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Despite the ceasefire agreement, there has been little indication that Tehran intends to ease its near-total blockade of the passage. Iranian officials have pointed to ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon as a major obstacle, arguing that continued strikes undermine the broader spirit of de-escalation.
Donald Trump voiced frustration over the situation, criticizing Iran’s actions and accusing it of failing to meet expectations tied to the agreement. In a public statement, he suggested that Tehran was not doing enough to allow energy shipments to resume through the strait, emphasizing that such restrictions contradict the understanding reached between both sides. He also expressed confidence that oil flows would eventually resume, though he did not outline specific measures the United States might take to ensure compliance.
The early hours of the ceasefire highlighted the severity of the disruption. Only a handful of vessels were able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz within the first day, a dramatic drop compared to normal traffic levels, which typically include around 140 ships daily. This sharp decline has intensified concerns about global energy markets and the potential for prolonged supply instability if the situation is not quickly resolved.
Meanwhile, fresh violence in Lebanon has further complicated diplomatic efforts. Israel confirmed it had carried out strikes targeting rocket launchers after projectiles were fired toward its northern regions. The Iran-backed group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for attacks on Israeli infrastructure, including targets in the city of Haifa. Although Israeli defense systems intercepted incoming missiles, the exchange underscored how quickly tensions can escalate beyond the core U.S.-Iran framework.
A key point of disagreement revolves around whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire terms. The United States and Israel maintain that the truce applies only to direct hostilities involving Iran, excluding the Lebanese front. However, Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators insist that Lebanon is an integral part of the agreement. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf emphasized that Iran’s regional alliances, including its support for Hezbollah, cannot be separated from any meaningful ceasefire arrangement.
Adding to the tension, Mojtaba Khamenei issued a strong warning, signaling that Iran would pursue retaliation for damages suffered during the conflict. His remarks reinforced Tehran’s position that accountability and compensation remain central demands in any long-term resolution.
The ceasefire itself was brokered under intense pressure, coming just hours before a deadline set by Washington that threatened significant military escalation. The prospect of expanded U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure had raised fears of a broader regional conflict, making the truce a critical, if temporary, pause in hostilities.
Attention is now turning to upcoming talks in Pakistan, where officials hope to lay the groundwork for a more lasting settlement. Iran has already presented a detailed proposal outlining its conditions, including maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of its nuclear program, the lifting of economic sanctions, and a comprehensive end to hostilities across the region, including in Lebanon.
On the Israeli side, Benjamin Netanyahu indicated a willingness to explore diplomatic options, even as military operations continue. He signaled that future negotiations could focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing more stable relations between Israel and Lebanon. However, these ambitions face significant resistance, particularly from Hezbollah, which has rejected the idea of direct negotiations and insists that any talks must begin with a full ceasefire.
Behind the scenes, diplomatic activity is intensifying. Lebanese officials are pushing for a temporary halt in fighting to create space for broader negotiations, while the United States is preparing to host additional discussions aimed at sustaining the ceasefire and expanding it into a more comprehensive agreement.
Despite these efforts, the situation remains highly volatile. Conflicting interpretations of the ceasefire terms, continued military actions, and unresolved geopolitical tensions all threaten to derail the fragile progress made so far. As negotiations approach, the coming days are likely to prove decisive in determining whether the ceasefire can evolve into a lasting peace or collapse under the weight of competing interests and ongoing conflict.
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