By Elsie Kamsiyochi
A temporary sigh of relief following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran quickly dissolved into renewed anxiety on Wednesday, as violence escalated across the Middle East.
Despite Washington and Tehran agreeing to pause direct hostilities, Israel unleashed its most extensive aerial assault yet on Lebanon, while Iran continued striking energy and infrastructure facilities across the Gulf.
The fragile truce—declared late Tuesday evening by U.S. President Donald Trump, just hours before a deadline he had imposed on Iran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz—initially buoyed global markets and ignited celebrations in parts of Iran. But the calm proved short-lived.
Markets React to the Ceasefire, but Regional Tensions Persist
Global financial markets surged on news of the deal, with U.S. stocks climbing to one-month highs and Brent crude falling sharply after weeks of tension-driven price spikes. The oil benchmark, which had soared more than 50% since the conflict began on February 28, tumbled around 16% to below $92 per barrel.
Yet beneath the optimism, fundamental disputes between Washington and Tehran remained unresolved. Both sides proclaimed victory, even as their negotiating positions continue to contradict one another. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil artery, remained closed, with Iran signaling it might reopen the passage only under tightly controlled and conditional terms.
A senior Iranian official suggested that limited reopening could occur as early as Thursday or Friday, but only if a preliminary ceasefire framework is finalized ahead of potential talks in Islamabad. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that both U.S. and Iranian delegations had been invited to the meeting, though Washington has yet to confirm in-person attendance.
Israel Escalates Parallel Conflict in Lebanon
Even as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran paused, Israel intensified its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli forces launched what officials described as their heaviest bombardments of the war, flattening buildings and sending enormous plumes of smoke over Beirut. Witnesses reported the absence of the typical evacuation warnings, leaving residents scrambling amid collapsing infrastructure.
Lebanon’s health minister reported hundreds wounded in the attacks, highlighting the growing humanitarian toll as civilians face unrelenting bombardment.
For Israel, the ceasefire with Iran poses political and strategic complications. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had framed the war as an opportunity to dismantle Iran’s regional influence and potentially destabilize its ruling establishment. Critics in Israel are already calling the emerging agreement a strategic setback, noting that Iran’s nuclear capabilities, missile program, and leadership remain intact.
Iran Continues Strikes on Gulf Neighbours
In a concerning sign that regional escalation may continue despite the truce, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates all reported fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks overnight. The assaults targeted energy assets—including oil facilities, power plants, and desalination sites essential to the Gulf’s water supply.
An oil industry source said Saudi Arabia’s crucial east-west pipeline, one of the few routes bypassing the closed Strait of Hormuz, was hit and is undergoing damage assessment.
These attacks underline Iran’s emerging regional leverage: its demonstrated ability to restrict or halt energy flows through the Gulf, a vulnerability long feared by global markets and Western powers.
Celebrations and Uncertainty in Tehran
Thousands of Iranians poured into the streets to celebrate the ceasefire, waving flags and chanting nationalist slogans late into the night. Despite the jubilation, many expressed skepticism about the truce’s durability.
“Israel will not allow diplomacy to work and Trump might change his view tomorrow,” said Alireza, a 29-year-old government employee. “But at least tonight we can sleep without the sound of explosions.”
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared the ceasefire a historic defeat for its adversaries, claiming that the country had emerged stronger than before—despite facing the combined military pressure of the United States and Israel.
Unsettled Issues Ahead of Negotiations
If talks proceed in Islamabad, negotiators will face two competing blueprints: a 15-point proposal from Washington and a 10-point counterplan from Tehran. Iran’s plan reportedly demands:
- Complete lifting of sanctions
- Financial compensation for war damage
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
Trump described the Iranian framework as “a workable basis for negotiation,” while Israeli officials said Washington had assured them that longstanding U.S. demands—including the elimination of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and ballistic missile program—remain unchanged.
Amid the uncertainty, Vice President JD Vance said Trump had instructed U.S. negotiators to pursue a deal, though he avoided committing to any specific schedule or location for talks.
Source Reuters
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