By Ginika Igboke
Brent crude oil futures opened higher late Sunday, climbing past $111 per barrel amid mounting concerns that the conflict involving Iran could intensify in the coming days.
The price movement follows a volatile week in energy markets. On March 31, crude prices peaked above $119 per barrel before plunging to around $98 by Wednesday. Prices then rebounded to more than $109 on Thursday before markets closed for Easter Friday. By late Sunday, oil reached a high of $111.89 and was trading near $110.73 as of 9:50 p.m. ET.
The renewed surge reflects growing uncertainty tied to a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had warned Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime corridor responsible for transporting roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas—by April 6.
Trump previously indicated that failure to comply could result in U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure. In an April 5 post on Truth Social, he issued a stark warning, suggesting that significant action could occur if the deadline passes.
Escalating Threats and Military Posturing
Iran has responded forcefully to the warnings. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cautioned that any further attacks on civilian infrastructure would trigger a more expansive and intense response.
Tensions have already escalated following a U.S. strike on April 2 that destroyed the recently completed B1 bridge linking Tehran to the nearby city of Karaj. A U.S. official said the strike was aimed at disrupting a planned military supply route supporting Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities. Iranian authorities condemned the move as an attack on civilian infrastructure.
Trump has also indicated that deploying U.S. ground forces remains a possibility if Iran does not comply, further heightening market anxiety and geopolitical risk.
Market Volatility and Energy Supply Concerns
Analysts warn that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil markets may not stabilize quickly. ING Bank noted that restoring pre-conflict conditions would take time, citing delays in restarting production, rebuilding inventories, and normalizing global supply chains.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned that disruptions to refining capacity could prolong high fuel prices worldwide. He also pointed to additional pressure from ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, which could further constrain supply.
U.S. consumers are already feeling the impact. The national average price for regular gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon on March 31 for the first time since August 2022. As of April 5, the average stood at $4.11 per gallon, up sharply from $3.25 just a month earlier. Prices have exceeded $5 per gallon in several states, including Nevada, Washington, Hawaii, and California.
OPEC+ Moves to Boost Output Amid Uncertainty
In response to rising volatility, the OPEC+ alliance agreed on Sunday to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day starting next month. The decision was made by key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
The group emphasized that it would continue to closely monitor market conditions as the situation evolves.
An OPEC+ committee also raised concerns about the vulnerability of global energy infrastructure, warning that attacks on key facilities or disruptions to major shipping routes could have lasting effects on supply.
“Any actions undermining energy security—whether through infrastructure damage or interference with maritime transit—risk increasing volatility and weakening efforts to stabilize the global oil market,” the committee said.
As geopolitical tensions persist, energy markets remain on edge, with investors closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East.
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