BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Oil markets were thrown into turmoil after traders placed more than half a billion dollars in crude oil bets only minutes before an announcement by Donald Trump triggered a dramatic price collapse.
Exchange data shows that large trades were executed roughly 15 minutes before the U.S. president announced a five-day delay to potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. The announcement suggested that diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran were progressing, raising hopes that tensions in the Middle East might ease and that disrupted oil supplies could eventually resume.
The president had earlier issued Iran a deadline to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk seeing its power plants “obliterated.” However, at 1105 GMT he posted on the social media platform Truth Social that the United States would delay the planned strikes for five days while negotiations continued.
The message immediately triggered a massive selloff in energy markets. Prices for global oil benchmarks plunged within minutes as traders rapidly reassessed the risk of prolonged supply disruptions.
Global benchmark Brent crude dropped as much as 15% in a matter of minutes, while West Texas Intermediate crude also tumbled sharply. The sudden decline reflected market expectations that a potential diplomatic breakthrough could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing millions of barrels of oil currently trapped in the Gulf region to return to international markets.
Data from LSEG shows that between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT traders executed around 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures contracts. Based on standard contract values, that volume represented trading activity worth well over $500 million.
Records also show that selling activity dominated those trades, indicating that some investors were positioning themselves for falling prices before the official announcement. However, it remains unclear who placed the trades or what information they may have had at the time.
The spike in trading volume was highly unusual. In Brent futures alone, the roughly 2,000-lot jump recorded during that minute far exceeded earlier trading activity that day.
Even that burst of activity was overshadowed by the intense trading that followed the president’s announcement. In the 60 seconds immediately after the message was posted, more than 13,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures contracts changed hands — equivalent to roughly 13 million barrels of oil.
Prices collapsed rapidly during the selloff. Brent crude plunged to around $99 per barrel from roughly $112, while WTI crude dropped to about $86 per barrel after trading near $99 earlier.
The exchanges that host these markets did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Brent crude futures are traded on the platform operated by Intercontinental Exchange, while WTI crude contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange owned by CME Group.
Regulators also declined to comment on the trading activity. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission did not respond to questions, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was not immediately available for comment. The White House likewise did not respond to inquiries regarding the timing of the trades.
Despite the sharp drop in prices, oil markets remain under intense pressure due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has temporarily removed roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply from global markets.
As a result, oil prices remain significantly elevated compared with levels before the conflict began in late February. Even after the selloff triggered by the announcement, Brent crude is still trading more than 40% higher than it was before the crisis erupted.
The war has also dramatically increased volatility and trading activity in energy markets. In the three years before the conflict began, daily trading volumes for Brent crude futures averaged about 300,000 contracts.
Over the past month, that figure has surged dramatically. Daily trading volumes have doubled and at times exceeded one million contracts — the equivalent of roughly one billion barrels of oil changing hands on futures markets.
For now, Brent crude is trading just below $104 per barrel as uncertainty continues to dominate the market. Investors remain unsure about how much damage the conflict could inflict on the global economy and whether diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran will succeed.
Adding to the confusion, Iranian officials have publicly denied that they are currently engaged in negotiations with Washington, leaving traders uncertain about whether any breakthrough is actually underway.
Until clearer signals emerge from the diplomatic front, analysts say energy markets are likely to remain extremely volatile, with oil prices continuing to swing sharply in response to political developments in the Middle East.
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