By Emmanuel Bobby
Public opinion in the United States regarding Israel and the Palestinian territories has changed dramatically in recent years, reflecting a political shift that is reshaping debates within the Democratic Party and influencing key primary elections.
Recent polling shows that more registered voters now view Israel negatively than positively—a notable change from just a few years ago. The shift has been particularly strong among Democrats and independent voters, a trend that could have major implications for congressional races in 2026 and the party’s presidential primary contest in 2028.
When asked which side they sympathize with more, 40% of registered voters said they align more closely with Palestinians, while 39% said they sympathize more with Israelis. This represents a dramatic change from 2013, when 45% of voters sided with Israelis and only 13% with Palestinians.
Deepening Divide Between Democrats and Republicans
The polling highlights a growing political divide between the two major parties.
Among Republicans, roughly two-thirds say they sympathize more with Israelis, a level of support that has remained relatively steady for years. Democrats, however, have shifted significantly in the opposite direction, with about two-thirds now saying they sympathize more with Palestinians.
Views of Israel itself have also changed. Nearly 60% of Democrats and almost half of independent voters now say they have a negative view of Israel—an increase from surveys conducted shortly after the October 2023 attack by Hamas.
At the same time, perceptions of the Palestinian territories have become somewhat more favorable among those groups.
Young Voters Driving Much of the Change
One of the most striking changes in opinion has occurred among younger voters.
Among registered voters under 35, skepticism toward Israel has grown rapidly. In 2023, 26% of younger voters viewed Israel positively and 37% negatively. More recent data now shows nearly two-thirds of voters in that age group hold negative views of Israel.
About 60% of younger voters say they sympathize more with Palestinians than Israelis, underscoring a generational divide that could shape future Democratic leadership and policy priorities.
Gaza War and Its Aftermath Influence Public Opinion
The shift in attitudes is closely tied to events that followed the October 2023 attack by Hamas, in which approximately 1,200 people were killed in Israel and more than 250 others were taken hostage.
The subsequent military campaign by Israel in Gaza has caused widespread destruction and significant loss of life, with local health officials reporting more than 72,000 deaths.
Supporters of Israel argue the attack demonstrated the country’s ongoing security threats and the need for strong American backing. Advocacy groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have emphasized solidarity with Israel while also warning about rising antisemitism.
For example, Wesley Bell, a Democratic representative from Missouri, has publicly expressed strong support for Israel, describing it as a key U.S. ally.
Bell won his congressional seat in 2024 after defeating progressive incumbent Cori Bush in a Democratic primary that attracted millions of dollars in outside spending from pro-Israel groups.
Progressive Democrats Increasingly Critical of Israel
At the same time, many progressive Democrats have become sharply critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Some lawmakers and activists have described Israel’s military campaign as a genocide and have called for restrictions on U.S. military aid. Dozens of Democratic members of Congress now support placing conditions on arms sales to Israel.
This divide has fueled heated debates within the Democratic Party, especially in competitive primaries where candidates are debating how strongly the U.S. should support Israel.
Political strategists say the issue has become a defining ideological fault line between establishment Democrats and the party’s progressive wing.
Millions in Political Spending Intensify the Debate
The debate has also been amplified by massive political spending from advocacy groups.
Organizations aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, including the United Democracy Project, have spent more than $100 million on federal elections in recent cycles, backing candidates who support a strong U.S.–Israel relationship.
Progressive groups, meanwhile, have responded by forming rival political organizations aimed at countering that spending and supporting candidates who are more critical of Israel’s policies.
These financial battles have become especially visible in Democratic primaries in states such as North Carolina, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Chicago Primaries Highlight the Party’s Internal Divide
In Chicago, several open congressional seats have turned upcoming primaries into major contests over the Democratic Party’s future direction on Israel policy.
Candidates in these races have adopted varying positions—from strong support for Israel to calls for a Palestinian state and restrictions on U.S. military aid.
Among them are Daniel Biss, who supports maintaining close U.S.–Israel ties while advocating for a Palestinian state; Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian American activist who has strongly criticized Israel’s war in Gaza; and Laura Fine, who supports Israel while also calling for humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Several super PACs have poured millions of dollars into these contests, intensifying debates over the role of outside political spending in Democratic primaries.
Issue Likely to Shape Future Democratic Elections
Political analysts say the shift in public opinion means that Democratic candidates must now navigate the issue of Israel in ways that were rarely required in previous elections.
While Republican voters remain strongly supportive of Israel, independent voters have also shifted significantly. Positive views of Israel among independents have dropped sharply in recent polling, while negative views have risen substantially.
Because of these trends, strategists believe debates over Israel and Palestinian rights will remain central in upcoming elections—especially the Democratic presidential primary expected in 2028.
The changing attitudes among voters suggest that U.S. politics surrounding the Middle East may look very different in the coming years than it has for decades.
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