BY MIRABEL ODETA
Iran and its network of allied militant groups could attempt retaliatory attacks against the United States after the reported killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in coordinated Israeli and U.S. strikes on Saturday, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment reviewed by officials familiar with the matter.
The February 28 threat assessment, prepared by the Office of Intelligence and Analysis within the Department of Homeland Security, concluded that while a large-scale, coordinated physical assault on U.S. soil remains unlikely, Iran and its proxies “probably” present an ongoing risk of targeted attacks inside the United States. The document suggests that Tehran could respond asymmetrically, relying on indirect methods and affiliated actors rather than conventional military force.
According to the assessment, the most immediate concern centers on cyber activity. Intelligence analysts warned that Iran-aligned “hacktivist” groups are likely to conduct low-level but disruptive cyberattacks against American networks. These actions could include website defacements, distributed denial-of-service attacks, and other forms of digital sabotage designed to create alarm, disrupt services, or signal retaliation without escalating into open warfare. Such cyber operations have historically been used by Iranian-linked groups as a means of projecting power while maintaining plausible deniability.
The report further stated that although a sweeping physical attack is considered improbable in the near term, Iran and affiliated organizations likely pose a persistent and evolving threat. Analysts warned that retaliatory activity — or public calls encouraging violence — would almost certainly intensify if definitive confirmation of the Ayatollah’s death continued to circulate. The assessment emphasized that symbolic retaliation, lone-actor violence inspired by events abroad, and coordinated cyber operations remain key concerns for homeland security officials.
In response to questions about the assessment, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said she is working closely with federal intelligence and law enforcement partners to monitor developments. She stressed that agencies are actively evaluating potential threats and coordinating efforts to prevent attacks within the United States.
Iran formally confirmed on Sunday that Khamenei had been killed in a strike carried out the previous day, an operation that had initially been announced by Israel and by U.S. President Donald Trump. The confirmation marked a dramatic escalation in tensions across the Middle East and heightened fears of a broader regional conflict.
The Department of Homeland Security assessment also projected that Iran would likely continue directing attacks against U.S. and allied interests throughout the Middle East. Analysts indicated that Tehran would almost certainly blame senior U.S. officials for unrest or protests triggered by statements from Washington, particularly comments advocating regime change in Iran. Such rhetoric, the report noted, could serve as a rallying point for both state-backed actors and independent sympathizers.
Meanwhile, the air conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran expanded beyond initial targets. Israel carried out strikes in Lebanon after exchanges of fire with Hezbollah, while Tehran continued launching missile and drone attacks aimed at Gulf states that host American military installations. The widening theater of operations has increased concerns about regional spillover and the possibility of miscalculation among heavily armed actors.
Within the United States, authorities are also scrutinizing whether global tensions may inspire domestic violence. On Monday, investigators examining a deadly shooting at a bar in Austin, Texas, that left at least two people dead said it was too early to determine whether the suspect was motivated by events related to the conflict in Iran. Law enforcement officials cautioned against drawing premature conclusions as the investigation remains ongoing.
The suspected gunman, who was killed during a confrontation with police, was photographed wearing a shirt bearing the Iranian flag with “IRAN” displayed across the front in green, white, and red. He was also reportedly wearing a sweatshirt with religious wording referencing Allah, according to a U.S. law enforcement official briefed on the matter. Authorities are working to establish whether the clothing reflected ideological motivations connected to the broader geopolitical crisis or was unrelated to the violence.
Federal agencies continue to assess the evolving threat environment as tensions remain high. Intelligence officials have emphasized that while the probability of a large-scale domestic attack appears low at present, the risk of targeted violence, cyber disruption, or isolated retaliatory acts cannot be dismissed amid the rapidly developing international situation.
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