American officials present declassified findings in Geneva alleging a secret 2020 low-yield detonation at Lop Nur and warn Beijing could reach nuclear parity within years.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Senior U.S. arms control officials told a United Nations-backed disarmament forum Monday that China is expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile at an accelerated pace and secretly conducted a low-yield nuclear explosion in 2020, presenting newly declassified intelligence to support the claim.
Speaking before the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Christopher Yeaw said Beijing’s nuclear buildup has proceeded without transparency or defined limits. According to reporting by The Guardian, Yeaw told delegates, “Despite its claims to the contrary, China has deliberately and without constraint, massively expanded its nuclear arsenal without transparency or any indication of China’s intent or end point.”
Yeaw presented declassified U.S. findings asserting that China conducted a nuclear detonation at its Lop Nur test site near Kazakhstan on June 22, 2020. Although China declared a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing in 1996, U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Beijing has violated that commitment more than once.
Details of the alleged event surfaced publicly after members of the U.S. intelligence community disclosed information to media outlets, including CNN, which reported that the explosion, while small compared to modern strategic warheads, generated seismic activity detectable in Kazakhstan and was tied to modernization efforts within China’s nuclear program.
On Monday, Yeaw provided technical specifics, stating, “the estimated yield of the event was a 10-tonne nuclear explosion, or five tonnes conventional equivalent, which assumes the explosion was fully coupled in hard rock below the water table.”
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno previously disclosed U.S. awareness of the Lop Nur event earlier this month. In remarks referenced by The Strategist, DiNanno accused China’s People’s Liberation Army of deliberately concealing nuclear testing activity.
“The PLA sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments. China has used decoupling – a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring – to hide their activities from the world,” DiNanno said.
Both officials stated that the June 2020 explosion was not detected by the body responsible for monitoring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The treaty, which was formulated in 1996, has not been ratified by either China or the United States, though its monitoring organization continues global surveillance for nuclear detonations.
While international observers noted unusual activity at Lop Nur beginning in 2020, U.S. officials said the newly disclosed intelligence constitutes the first definitive evidence that a weapons-related detonation occurred.
The allegations were presented as part of Washington’s broader argument that any successor to the expired New START treaty between the United States and Russia must include China. DiNanno noted that “almost all of the U.S. deployed nuclear forces were subject to New START, while only a fraction of Russia’s much larger stockpile was,” and that “zero Chinese nuclear weapons” were covered.
“China’s entire nuclear arsenal has no limits, no transparency, no declarations, and no controls,” he said.
In comments reported by NBC News, Yeaw described what he called the “greatest flaw” of New START, stating that it “did not account for the unprecedented, deliberate, rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup by China.”
Yeaw added that China’s arsenal could “may achieve parity” with the United States and Russia “within the next four or five years,” challenging Beijing’s longstanding assertion that it seeks only a minimal deterrent capability.
The assistant secretary confirmed he had already met with Russian representatives in Geneva and was scheduled to hold discussions with Chinese delegates. He also stated that China continues to make international verification difficult, including by declining to allow internationally monitored seismic testing near Lop Nur comparable to what the United States permits at its Nevada test site.
Chinese officials rejected the U.S. claims. Ambassador Jian Shen stated, “The U.S. accusation that China conducted a nuclear explosion test is completely unfounded and is merely a pretext for resuming its own nuclear testing.” He added, “The U.S.’s practice of smearing other countries to evade international arms control obligations seriously damages its own international standing.”
The dispute comes amid renewed debate over nuclear testing policy in Washington. In October, President Donald Trump cited concerns over foreign testing programs, including China’s activities and Russia’s reported test of a nuclear-powered cruise missile, when discussing the possibility of renewed American testing.
“Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump said in October following a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He later told reporters aboard Air Force One, according to the BBC, “With others doing testing, I think it’s appropriate that we do also.”
At the same time, U.S. officials signaled openness to renewed arms control negotiations. In a formal statement delivered to the Conference on Disarmament earlier this month, DiNanno said, “Together, we can prevent an unmitigated nuclear arms race, limit the build-up of nuclear arms, restore responsible behavior when it comes to nuclear testing, and, as appropriate, address issues concerning non-NPT nuclear weapons possessing states.”
He added that one of the central questions facing the international community is “how much deterrence is enough,” noting that the answer “will depend, in part, on the success of upcoming multilateral strategic stability discussions.”
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