By Rosemary
Germany, France and several other European nations reaffirmed their steadfast support for Ukraine on Monday, as diplomatic efforts intensified to finalize a fresh round of sanctions against Russia and secure a massive new financial lifeline for Kyiv ahead of the fourth anniversary of the war.
Nearly four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, European leaders marked the grim milestone with renewed pledges of solidarity, even as internal divisions within the European Union threatened to complicate the bloc’s response. The war has exacted a devastating toll, with estimates suggesting that around 1.8 million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, wounded or remain missing.
In Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the conflict as “four monstrous years of war” during a pro-Ukraine gathering, urging European partners not to waver at what he characterized as a decisive moment for the continent.
“I appeal again to our European partners — do not let up in your support, in our common support, for Ukraine,” Merz said. “We are standing at a crossroads that could decide on the well-being of our whole continent.”
Merz acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the war’s trajectory, noting that no one can predict whether fighting will cease in weeks, months or even longer. Still, he stressed that European governments are working relentlessly to hasten an end to the violence while maintaining pressure on Moscow.
In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron echoed that determination, declaring that France’s commitment to Ukraine remains unwavering. Hosting Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Macron underscored the importance of unity among European allies as they seek to increase the economic and political costs for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Stubb argued that Russia’s invasion has turned into a strategic, military and economic setback for Moscow. He pointed to mounting Russian casualties and the strain on the country’s economy as evidence that the war has not delivered the swift victory the Kremlin may have anticipated. Yet, he added, Putin appears unwilling or unable to pivot toward peace negotiations.
While public statements in Berlin and Paris projected unity, behind closed doors EU diplomats in Brussels grappled with resistance from Hungary, which has threatened to block both a new sanctions package and a proposed €90 billion ($106 billion) loan intended to support Ukraine’s military and economic needs over the next two years.
The loan had previously received Hungary’s backing, but Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shifted course over the weekend, tying his government’s approval to the resumption of Russian oil deliveries to Hungary. Budapest argues that disruptions to oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline have jeopardized the country’s energy security.
Hungarian officials say Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia were interrupted after drone strikes damaged sections of the pipeline that runs across Ukrainian territory into Central Europe. Kyiv has rejected allegations that it is deliberately blocking supplies.
Orbán went further on Monday, accusing Ukraine of orchestrating what he described as an “oil blockade” and even alleging that Kyiv seeks to undermine his government. Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, insisted that no country has the right to endanger Hungary’s energy stability, as he fielded questions from journalists in Brussels.
Hungary and Slovakia stand out within the EU for maintaining substantial imports of Russian oil and gas despite the bloc’s broader push to curb reliance on Moscow’s energy exports. Both countries were granted temporary exemptions from the EU’s ban on Russian oil imports, reflecting their landlocked geography and dependence on pipeline supplies.
European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas signaled that consensus on the 20th package of sanctions may not be reached immediately, underscoring the delicate negotiations underway among the EU’s 27 member states. The proposed measures are expected to target Russia’s so-called shadow fleet used to circumvent oil export restrictions, as well as additional energy revenues that help finance the war effort.
Several European leaders argue that increasing economic pressure is the surest path toward ending the conflict. Merz emphasized the need to “dry up Moscow’s war financing,” contending that the war will only conclude when Russia sees no further benefit in continuing its aggression and when the financial and human costs become unsustainable.
Since 2022, the EU has provided nearly €195 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine, while imposing sweeping sanctions aimed at weakening Russia’s economy and constraining its military capabilities. Yet the persistence of the conflict has tested Europe’s unity and resolve.
Domestic politics in Hungary appear to be complicating matters further. With parliamentary elections approaching in April, Orbán has launched a forceful anti-Ukraine campaign at home, accusing the opposition Tisza party of conspiring with Brussels and Kyiv to install what he calls a pro-Ukraine government aligned with EU leadership.
Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, suggested that Hungary’s veto threats may be driven as much by electoral strategy as by policy concerns. He expressed disappointment at what he described as a lack of solidarity with Ukraine, the victim of aggression.
“The ruling party managed to create a climate of hostility towards the victim of aggression,” Sikorski said, arguing that such rhetoric is now being leveraged in the heat of Hungary’s election campaign.
Adding another voice to the debate, Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, stressed the urgency of releasing the agreed loan funds, noting that Ukraine urgently requires sustained financial support to maintain its defense and stabilize its economy. Estonia, which marks its independence from Soviet Russia this week, has been among Ukraine’s most vocal backers.
As the war enters its fifth year, Europe finds itself balancing commemorations of resilience with the hard realities of political negotiation. While leaders in Berlin and Paris project confidence in their shared purpose, the coming days will test whether the European Union can maintain the unity that has defined much of its response to Russia’s invasion — or whether internal divisions will blunt the next phase of pressure on Moscow.
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