BY Ginika Igboke
Tensions between the United States and Iran remain elevated as President Donald Trump seeks additional security concessions from Tehran.
The administration’s primary objective is limiting Iran’s nuclear activities, though broader demands—ranging from missile development to regional proxy support—may complicate efforts to reach a deal aimed at easing the standoff.
While diplomatic talks continue, Trump has increased U.S. military deployments near Iran and warned of potential military action if Tehran does not make sufficient concessions. Iranian officials, in turn, have threatened to target U.S. military bases across the region in response to any new attacks.
Factors Driving the Dispute
A central source of friction remains Iran’s nuclear program. In 2015, the United States joined a multinational agreement designed to curb Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief.
During his first term, Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, arguing it failed to adequately address Iran’s ballistic missile program and its backing of designated terrorist groups in the Middle East. U.S. sanctions were subsequently reinstated, alongside calls for negotiations on a stricter framework.
After returning to office in 2025, Trump renewed efforts to secure a broader regional security agreement. Talks stalled in June when Israel launched surprise strikes targeting Iranian military leaders, nuclear facilities, and scientists. On June 22, Trump ordered U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.
The administration later said Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been significantly degraded and shifted focus to other global issues. However, unrest inside Iran last month—sparked by economic grievances and escalating into deadly clashes—drew renewed attention from Washington.
In a Jan. 13 post on Truth Social, Trump encouraged Iranian protesters and suggested assistance was forthcoming. He has since warned of possible additional military measures and ordered further force deployments to the region.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is operating in the Arabian Sea, and Trump has indicated a second carrier group may be deployed.
At a Feb. 12 White House press conference, Trump said negotiations would continue for roughly another month. When asked the following day about regime change in Iran, he said such an outcome “would be the best thing that could happen.”
Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has urged international backing for a political transition. He is the son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whose rule ended with Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Trump has expressed uncertainty about Pahlavi’s domestic support.
Scope of Negotiations
Iranian officials have signaled openness to discussing nuclear matters but have resisted expanding talks to include other issues.
On Feb. 4, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations should also address Iran’s missile program, its handling of domestic protests, and its support for regional proxy groups. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that missile capabilities are not negotiable.
Following a round of discussions in Oman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump in Washington. Trump said the Feb. 11 meeting yielded no definitive conclusions.
Before departing Washington, Netanyahu emphasized that any agreement must address not only nuclear issues but also ballistic missiles and Iranian-backed proxy forces. After Israel’s June strikes, Iran retaliated with missile barrages that strained Israeli air defenses.
Risks of Escalation
Iranian leaders have warned that further attacks could trigger broader regional conflict. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said earlier this month that while Iran does not seek war, it would respond forcefully to aggression.
After U.S. strikes in June, Iran launched ballistic missiles at a base hosting American troops in Qatar. Trump said Tehran provided advance notice, allowing U.S. forces to intercept the missiles without casualties.
Sen. Chris Coons, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warned that any renewed military action could make it difficult to avoid U.S. casualties.
Rep. Jason Crow, a U.S. Army veteran serving on the House Armed Services and Intelligence Committees, expressed confidence in military preparedness but questioned the administration’s long-term strategy.
Rep. Dan Meuser described Iran’s leadership as deeply problematic and voiced support for those seeking political change, while acknowledging that transforming entrenched regimes can be challenging.
As negotiations proceed alongside military preparations, the risk of miscalculation remains a central concern for policymakers on all sides.
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