By Ginika Igboke
U.S. freight markets are beginning to reflect a shift toward domestically driven industrial activity, with truckload volumes rising sharply across the Midwest even as import-related freight remains weak, according to new data and industry analysis.
Truckload volumes are up roughly 8 percent year over year, fueled by increased activity in traditional industrial corridors tied to the auto and heavy machinery sectors, said FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller in a Feb. 9 video commentary.
In contrast, freight tied to imports and port-adjacent distribution hubs has declined. Activity in Southern California’s Inland Empire—a key gateway for imported goods—is down about 17 percent, highlighting a growing divergence within the freight market.
Fuller described the year-over-year increase in truckload volumes as “significant,” noting that the gains are concentrated in domestic industrial regions rather than import hubs.
“It’s not what you would expect it to be,” Fuller said. “Imports are actually not really participating in this volume surge. It’s happening in the Rust Belt, the traditional industrial Midwest, focused on autos and heavy machinery. We’re not seeing it at the ports.”
The pattern marks a departure from the import-led freight cycles that have dominated much of the past decade, including during the pandemic-era surge in goods demand. Instead, current trends suggest strengthening domestic supply chains, with growth concentrated in middle- and last-mile freight rather than containerized imports.
“Last year, the auto market was quite weak, and industrial machinery was quite weak,” Fuller said. “We’re starting to see that come back.” He pointed to cities such as Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Detroit; Kansas City; and Cleveland as significantly outperforming other regions on a year-over-year basis.
According to Fuller, those markets are gaining share, a development he linked to re-industrialization efforts encouraged by President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Trump has pursued measures such as tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains and reviving domestic manufacturing. Freight and transportation data are often viewed by analysts as early indicators of economic turning points, as the movement of raw materials and finished goods typically shifts ahead of broader measures like gross domestic product, employment, and construction spending. Research suggests freight trends have historically led U.S. growth cycles by four to six months.
Factory Surveys Reinforce Freight Trends
Recent manufacturing surveys largely support the signals coming from freight markets. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index returned to expansion in January, rising to 52.6 from 47.9, while S&P Global’s U.S. manufacturing PMI increased to 52.4, marking the fastest pace of factory output growth since mid-2022.
S&P Global reported that industrial production accelerated sharply in January, though demand remained uneven and export orders continued to decline. Chris Williamson, the firm’s chief business economist, said manufacturers cited reduced import competition due to tariffs and expectations of stronger domestic demand as factors supporting output.
Despite the positive signals from freight and surveys, official data show that manufacturing construction spending—a key measure of re-industrialization—has cooled from a peak reached last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Even so, spending remains near record levels, and analysts are closely monitoring the trend.
In a Jan. 21 address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he expects factory construction to “skyrocket” in the near future, citing expedited permitting and what he described as trillions of dollars in pledged foreign investment.
“Car plants are moving back to the United States,” Trump said, adding that companies from Canada, Mexico, Japan, and China are building facilities domestically to avoid tariffs.
Meanwhile, regional Federal Reserve surveys, covering activity in late 2025, present a mixed picture. The Chicago Fed reported that capital expenditures dipped slightly but said contacts expect an increase in the year ahead. The Cleveland Fed noted stronger orders for light vehicles and agricultural equipment, with expectations for modest growth in nonresidential construction.
One developer cited in the Cleveland Fed’s report said above-trend industrial demand could support stronger activity in 2026.
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