By Anietie anii-bassey
Russia does not currently have the capacity to mount a direct attack on NATO within the next two years, but is preparing for a major military buildup along the alliance’s eastern border that could reshape Europe’s security landscape, according to the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service.
Kaupo Rosin, speaking during an online briefing with journalists ahead of Estonia’s annual national security assessment, said Moscow is laying plans to significantly expand its forces near NATO territory once the future of the war in Ukraine becomes clearer. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no real inclination to halt the nearly four-year-long invasion and still believes he can maneuver diplomatically around Washington while continuing the conflict.
Rosin said Russian military planners envision creating new combat units and expanding troop levels along NATO’s frontier to two or three times their prewar size. How quickly that happens, he cautioned, will depend heavily on negotiations among Russia, the United States and Ukraine over a possible ceasefire or settlement.
For now, Moscow must keep a large portion of its armed forces deployed inside occupied Ukrainian territory and within Russia itself to deter potential Ukrainian counteroffensives, limiting its ability to redirect manpower westward.
“There are not enough resources available at the moment for Russia to attack NATO,” Rosin said, though he added that Kremlin officials are increasingly alarmed by Europe’s rapid rearmament and fear that NATO countries could be in a position to threaten Russia militarily in the coming years.
According to Rosin, Russian negotiators are deliberately dragging out talks with Washington and show little interest in serious cooperation. He said intelligence gathered from what he described as internal Russian discussions indicates that officials in Moscow still regard the United States as their primary adversary, even as public statements emphasize a desire for diplomacy.
Russian leaders have repeatedly insisted they are open to a negotiated settlement, yet they have offered few concessions and continue to press demands that Kyiv and its Western allies consider unacceptable.
Recent U.S.-mediated meetings between Russian and Ukrainian envoys have been portrayed by officials on both sides as constructive, but there has been no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees or Ukraine’s political future.
Rosin said Putin remains convinced that time is on his side. “In his head, he still thinks that he can actually militarily win at some point,” the Estonian intelligence chief told reporters.
The White House pushed back against that assessment, with a senior official saying President Donald Trump’s negotiators have made “tremendous progress” in recent talks aimed at ending the war.
The official pointed to a recent agreement brokered in Abu Dhabi involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia that led to the release of more than 300 prisoners, calling it evidence that diplomatic efforts are gaining traction. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the negotiations publicly.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Washington has urged both sides to reach a settlement by June, part of what he described as an effort by Trump to inject urgency into the process. Trump has previously announced deadlines for ending the conflict that passed without major consequences, leaving uncertainty about how much pressure the United States is prepared to apply.
Fiona Hill, a longtime Russia specialist and a former adviser to Trump during his first term, said the White House is presenting a narrative that casts the president as a peacemaker, which may shape how officials interpret Putin’s intentions. She argued that both leaders appear invested in maintaining their own versions of reality — Putin as the eventual victor in Ukraine and Trump as the ultimate dealmaker.
Hill also questioned how intelligence assessments are being weighed in Washington, saying it is unclear what information reaches the president or how closely it is examined. She noted that Trump relies heavily on his lead negotiators, special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and suggested they may underestimate Putin’s willingness to endure economic damage in pursuit of his goals in Ukraine.
Referring to reports that Witkoff has attended meetings with Putin without a U.S. State Department translator present, Hill raised concerns about whether American envoys fully grasp the nuances of what is being discussed, adding that officials sometimes hear what they want to hear.
Rosin echoed that theme in describing dynamics inside the Kremlin itself. He said Putin is deeply fixated on subjugating Ukraine and that the idea dominates his thinking to such an extent that economic costs take a back seat. In his assessment, the war is likely to drag on for years unless Russia experiences a catastrophic setback either on the battlefield or at home that threatens Putin’s grip on power.
Putin’s confidence, Rosin said, may partly stem from distorted reporting within his own system. While some Russian officials privately recognize the difficulties facing their forces, higher-ranking figures often receive rosier assessments. Rosin said intelligence has uncovered cases in which senior leaders were told that Russian troops had captured Ukrainian settlements when that was not true.
“The lower you go in the food chain, the more people understand how bad it actually is on the ground,” he said, adding that reports delivered to Putin may be tailored to reflect success because subordinates know what he prefers to hear.
Hill suggested a similar dynamic could exist in Washington, where advisers may shape information to match political expectations. In both capitals, she said, leaders could be operating with filtered versions of reality as the war grinds on.
The intelligence briefing came as fighting continued to exact a heavy toll in Ukraine. In the eastern Donetsk region, Russian glide bombs struck residential areas Tuesday morning, killing an 11-year-old girl and her mother, according to regional officials, and wounding seven others, including a 7-year-old child. Overnight drone attacks elsewhere in the country injured at least five people, among them a toddler and two additional children.
Despite Trump’s repeated assertions that Putin is interested in peace, Rosin said he sees little intelligence-based evidence to support that conclusion. From his vantage point, the Kremlin is focused less on compromise than on positioning itself for a prolonged confrontation — one that could reshape the military balance along NATO’s eastern flank long after the guns in Ukraine eventually fall silent.
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