By Emmanuel Bobby
President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a move that could further strain the island as it grapples with a deepening energy crisis.
The order is widely seen as aimed at Mexico, which has become a critical oil supplier for Cuba and has consistently expressed solidarity with the Cuban government. The move comes despite Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s efforts to maintain a cooperative relationship with Trump.
Asked Thursday whether he was attempting to “choke off” Cuba, which he described as a “failing nation,” Trump pushed back on the phrasing.
“The word ‘choke off’ is awfully tough,” Trump said. “I’m not trying to, but it looks like it’s something that’s just not going to be able to survive.”
Cuban officials swiftly condemned the executive order. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called it a “brutal act of aggression against Cuba and its people,” warning that it could subject the population to “extreme living conditions.” He accused the United States of using “blackmail and coercion” to pressure other countries into joining what he described as a universally condemned blockade of the island.
Speculation has intensified this week that Mexico could sharply reduce oil shipments to Cuba under mounting pressure from Washington. Cuba, already mired in an economic and energy crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, has long depended on foreign assistance and oil supplies from allies such as Mexico, Russia, and Venezuela.
Following a recent U.S. military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power, Trump announced that no more Venezuelan oil would be sent to Cuba and suggested that the Cuban government was on the verge of collapse.
Data from Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, shows that it shipped nearly 20,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba between January and Sept. 30, 2025. During that period, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City. Afterward, Jorge Piñon, an energy expert at the University of Texas Energy Institute who tracks shipments using satellite data, reported that exports to Cuba had fallen to roughly 7,000 barrels per day.
Sheinbaum has offered limited clarity on Mexico’s current position. In recent days, she has given cautious and often ambiguous responses to questions about oil shipments and has avoided direct answers during her morning press briefings.
On Tuesday, Sheinbaum said Pemex had temporarily paused some oil deliveries to Cuba but framed the move as part of routine fluctuations in supply rather than the result of U.S. pressure. She emphasized that the decision was a “sovereign” one and reiterated Mexico’s commitment to solidarity with Havana, without specifying what form that support would take.
The following day, Sheinbaum clarified that she had not said Mexico had fully suspended shipments. She said “humanitarian aid” to Cuba would continue and explained that oil deliveries are governed by Pemex contracts.
“The contract determines when shipments are sent and when they are not sent,” she said.
Trump and Sheinbaum spoke by phone Thursday morning. According to Sheinbaum, Cuba was not discussed during the call. She added that Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary had told Rubio it was “very important” for Mexico to continue humanitarian assistance to Cuba and that Mexico was willing to act as an intermediary between Washington and Havana.
The uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s position highlights the pressure facing Latin American governments as Trump adopts a more confrontational posture in the region following the Venezuela operation.
It remains unclear how the executive order will affect Cuba in practice. The island has endured years of economic hardship under U.S. sanctions and an ongoing embargo. Anxiety has already been rising among Cubans, with long lines forming at gas stations this week as drivers wait for fuel, uncertain about what lies ahead.
On Cuban state television, commentator Jorge Legañoa argued that Cuba poses no threat, saying the government is focused on combating gangs and preventing regional drug trafficking through a strict zero-tolerance policy.
Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos F. de Cossio echoed that message on social media, accusing the United States of tightening its blockade after what he described as the failure of decades of economic pressure.
“Under the threat of tariff coercion,” de Cossio wrote, “sovereign states are being forced to decide whether to abandon their right to export their own fuel to Cuba.”
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