Oil Prices Rise as Iran Unrest Fuels Supply Concerns, While Venezuela Exports Limit Gains

BY COMFORT OGBONNA

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as escalating protests in Iran raised concerns about potential supply disruptions from the OPEC producer. However, gains were limited by expectations that global oil markets will be oversupplied this year and by moves to restart oil exports from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $63.39 a barrel by 0433 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 4 cents to $59.16 a barrel.

Oil prices have recently built in a modest risk premium, though markets remain cautious and are yet to fully factor in the possibility of a broader conflict involving Iran. Any escalation could threaten oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global supply route.

Civil unrest in Iran has intensified, with reports indicating that more than 500 people have been killed since protests began. There have also been growing calls for oil sector workers to halt operations, raising fears that the unrest could disrupt up to 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports.

The situation has drawn international attention, with warnings that external intervention remains a possibility if violence against protesters escalates. Senior officials are expected to assess potential policy responses in the coming days.

Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela are easing some supply concerns. Oil exports from the country are expected to resume following recent political changes, with plans underway to transfer as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude to the United States. Oil companies are now racing to secure tankers and coordinate logistics to move the crude from aging ports and offshore vessels, with initial shipments expected within weeks.

Despite these developments, oil prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term unless there is a clear rebound in global demand or a significant disruption to supply. Market expectations increasingly point toward an oversupply environment as the market moves into 2026.

Investors are also closely monitoring potential supply risks linked to Russia, as ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions continue to add uncertainty to global energy markets.