By Chinonyerem Emmanuel
U.S. President Donald Trump sharply escalated tensions with Cuba on Sunday, declaring that no more Venezuelan oil or money will be allowed to reach the island and urging Havana to strike a deal with Washington “before it is too late.”
The warning marks a dramatic new phase in U.S. policy toward the longtime communist adversary and comes amid sweeping geopolitical changes following recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
Venezuela Oil Flow to Cuba Comes to a Halt
Venezuela has long been Cuba’s most important energy lifeline, supplying the Caribbean nation with heavily subsidized crude oil and fuel that helped keep its power grid, transportation system, and basic services running.
However, shipping data shows that no Venezuelan oil cargoes have departed for Cuba since early January, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and the imposition of a strict U.S.-led oil blockade on the OPEC member.
Last year alone, Venezuela supplied Cuba with an estimated 26,500 barrels per day of crude and refined products, covering roughly half of the island’s oil deficit.
The sudden cutoff has raised alarm among analysts who say Cuba already struggling with blackouts, shortages, and economic contraction is especially vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply.
U.S.–Venezuela Deal Moves Forward as Cuba Is Isolated
While oil flows to Cuba have dried up, Washington and Caracas appear to be moving rapidly in the opposite direction. U.S. and Venezuelan officials are progressing toward a $2 billion agreement under which Venezuela would supply up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, with proceeds deposited into U.S. Treasury-supervised accounts.
The deal represents a significant test of the evolving relationship between Trump and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez, and signals a dramatic realignment in regional energy and political dynamics.
Trump has said the two countries are working cooperatively to rebuild Venezuela’s oil and gas infrastructure, with American energy companies expected to play a major role.
Cuba Responds Defiantly
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected Trump’s warning outright, responding with defiant language that framed the dispute as another chapter in decades of U.S. hostility toward the island.
“Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do,” Díaz-Canel wrote on X. “Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the U.S. for 66 years. It does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.”
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez echoed that sentiment, insisting that Cuba has the right to import fuel from any country willing to sell it and denying claims that Havana received financial compensation in exchange for security services provided abroad.
Economic Strain Mounts on the Island
Even before the loss of Venezuelan oil, Cuba was grappling with severe electricity shortages, aging infrastructure, and dwindling refining capacity.
Rolling blackouts lasting hours have become routine across the island, including in Havana, paralyzing businesses and daily life. Shortages of food, fuel, and medicine have worsened public frustration and fueled a record-breaking exodus of Cubans, many fleeing to the United States over the past five years.
U.S. intelligence assessments describe Cuba’s economy as deeply strained, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture and tourism.
While those assessments stop short of predicting an imminent collapse, officials acknowledge that losing Venezuelan energy support could significantly complicate governance for Díaz-Canel’s government.
Mexico Emerges as a Partial Alternative
With Venezuelan supplies cut off, Mexico has emerged as a limited alternative oil supplier to Cuba. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that her country has not formally increased shipments, but acknowledged that Mexico has become an “important supplier” given recent political upheaval in Venezuela. Analysts caution, however, that Mexican volumes remain too small to fully replace Venezuela’s lost supply.
A Broader U.S. Strategy in the Hemisphere
Trump’s latest move underscores what senior administration officials have described as a determined effort to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other top officials have openly suggested that the U.S. intervention in Venezuela could destabilize Cuba’s leadership and force political concessions.
Although Trump did not specify what kind of deal he envisions for Havana, his message was unmistakable: the era of Venezuelan-backed economic support for Cuba is over, and Washington is prepared to use energy leverage to reshape regional alliances.
As oil flows are redirected and diplomatic pressure intensifies, Cuba now faces a stark reality one in which its longtime benefactor has been neutralized, its economic vulnerabilities are exposed, and its future relationship with the United States hangs in the balance.
Source Reuters
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