By Chinonyerem Emmanuel
The death toll from Iran’s ongoing anti-government protests has surpassed 500 people, according to a U.S.-based human rights group, as the Islamic Republic’s leadership issued stark warnings to the United States against any military intervention.
The unrest, now in its third week, represents the most serious challenge to Iran’s clerical establishment since nationwide demonstrations erupted in 2022 and has intensified fears of a wider regional conflict.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which compiles data from activists both inside and outside Iran, at least 490 protesters and 48 members of the security forces have been killed since demonstrations began on December 28.
The group also reported that more than 10,600 people have been arrested during the crackdown. Iranian authorities have not released official casualty figures, and Reuters said it was unable to independently verify the numbers.
Economic Anger Turns Political
The protests initially broke out in response to soaring prices and economic hardship, but quickly evolved into broader demonstrations against Iran’s clerical rulers, who have governed the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Chanting crowds, nighttime marches, and clashes with security forces have been reported in major cities including Tehran and Mashhad, despite an internet blackout imposed by authorities since Thursday to restrict the flow of information.
Videos posted to social media and verified by Reuters show large groups of demonstrators filling streets, clapping and chanting slogans late into the night.
In Mashhad, footage captured smoke rising from street fires, debris scattered across roads, masked protesters, and the sound of explosions echoing in the background.
Iranian state television has aired images of dozens of body bags at the Tehran coroner’s office, describing the deaths as the result of actions by “armed terrorists.” The broadcaster also showed grieving families gathered outside forensic medical centers, waiting to identify loved ones.
Tehran Warns Washington Against ‘Miscalculation’
As the violence escalates, the standoff between Tehran and Washington has sharpened. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that the United States could intervene if Iranian authorities continue to use force against protesters.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump was expected to be briefed by his advisers this week on a range of options, including military strikes, cyber operations, expanded sanctions, and increased online support for anti-government voices.
Iranian leaders responded with blunt threats. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, warned the United States against what he called a dangerous “miscalculation.”
“Let us be clear,” Qalibaf said. “In the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target.”
Iranian officials have accused both the United States and Israel of orchestrating the unrest. State media reported that authorities had called for nationwide rallies on Monday to condemn what they described as “terrorist actions led by the United States and Israel” inside Iran.
Israel on High Alert
The unrest has also put Israel on heightened alert. Three Israeli sources familiar with weekend security consultations said the country’s military was closely monitoring developments amid concerns that U.S. intervention could trigger Iranian retaliation.
An Israeli military official described the protests as an internal Iranian matter but said Israel was prepared to respond “with power if need be.”
The warnings come less than a year after Iran and Israel fought a 12-day war in June, during which the United States briefly joined Israel in attacking key Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran later retaliated with missile strikes against Israel and a U.S. air base in Qatar.
Government Denounces Protesters, Urges Calm
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking in a televised interview, accused Israel and the United States of masterminding the unrest and claimed foreign-backed “terrorists” were responsible for acts of violence, including attacks on mosques, banks, and public property.
“Families, I ask you: do not allow your young children to join rioters and terrorists who behead people and kill others,” Pezeshkian said. He added that the government was willing to listen to public grievances and address economic problems, even as security forces intensified their crackdown.
State television broadcast funeral processions for security personnel killed in the unrest, including ceremonies in western cities such as Gachsaran and Yasuj. Officials said dozens of members of the security forces would be buried in Isfahan, while six others were killed in clashes in Kermanshah.
Opposition Voices and U.S. Signals of Support
Trump has continued to signal support for the protesters, posting on social media over the weekend: “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the possibility of U.S. intervention in a phone call on Saturday, according to an Israeli source. Netanyahu later told his cabinet that Israel was watching events closely, adding, “We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny.”
Prominent opposition figures echoed those sentiments. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, praised protesters for their “indescribable bravery” and urged them not to retreat.
Maryam Rajavi, leader of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, said demonstrators had “asserted control of public spaces and reshaped Iran’s political landscape.”
Uncertain Outcome, Lasting Consequences
Despite the scale of the unrest, some analysts remain cautious about predicting regime change.
Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, said it was unlikely the protests would immediately topple the government.
“I think it more likely that it puts these protests down eventually, but emerges from the process far weaker,” Eyre said, noting that Iran’s ruling elite still appears cohesive and that the opposition remains fragmented.
As protests continue and rhetoric hardens on all sides, Iran finds itself at a volatile crossroads facing deep domestic unrest, growing international pressure, and the looming risk that internal turmoil could spill into a broader regional confrontation.
Source CNBC
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