The Congressional Budget Office now projects significantly slower population growth over the next three decades, driven by declining birth rates and reduced net immigration under current policies.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The Congressional Budget Office said Jan. 7 that the United States population is projected to grow by only 15 million people over the next 30 years, a sharp reduction from its prior forecasts, citing persistently low fertility rates and a steep slowdown in immigration.
In its latest demographic outlook, the agency projects the U.S. population will reach 364 million by 2056, up from roughly 349 million today. That figure represents a notable downgrade from the 372 million residents the CBO estimated in January 2025 and the 383 million it projected in its 2024 report.
According to the analysis, population growth is expected to average about 0.3 percent annually over the next decade before slowing further to just 0.1 percent per year between 2037 and 2056. The agency attributed the downward revision primarily to declining fertility and lower net immigration.
For a population to replace itself without immigration, women must have an average of 2.1 births each. The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 births per woman but fell to 1.6 in 2024, the most recent year with complete data available to the CBO. The office projects the rate will decline further to 1.58 births per woman in 2026 and to 1.53 by 2036, stabilizing at that level through mid-century.
Women born outside the United States are projected to maintain higher fertility rates than native-born women, though those rates are also expected to fall. The CBO estimates foreign-born women will average 1.79 births per woman in 2026, declining to 1.66 by 2036. Native-born women are projected to average about 1.5 births per woman by 2032 and remain near that level through 2056.
The agency cautioned that its projections are “subject to considerable uncertainty” and could change if fertility trends or immigration policies shift.
President Donald Trump has pursued several policies aimed at reversing demographic decline, including taxpayer-funded savings accounts for newborns and agreements intended to lower the cost of fertility medications.
On immigration, the CBO said that without net inflows of immigrants, the U.S. population would begin shrinking as early as 2030. Its revised forecast marks a major departure from prior assumptions. In 2025, the agency had estimated net immigration of about 2 million people, followed by 1.5 million in 2026 and an average of 1.1 million annually through 2055.
Under the new projections, the CBO estimates that only about 410,000 immigrants were added in 2025 and forecasts average net immigration of just 330,000 per year between 2026 and 2036. The agency expects net immigration to increase to about 1.2 million annually in the following two decades.
The decline is partly attributed to a sharp drop in illegal immigration during Trump’s presidency. The CBO reported that combined net immigration from three categories — illegal border crossers, visa overstays, and individuals paroled into the country during the Biden administration — fell from 2.4 million in 2023 to 1.3 million in 2024, then dropped to negative 360,000 in 2025.
The agency noted that immigration projections remain especially uncertain, as future congressional action or executive policy changes could significantly alter migration patterns.
Trump and senior administration officials have implemented a range of enforcement measures, including visa bans for certain countries and expanded deployments of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in U.S. cities. Congress also passed, and Trump signed in July, a tax and spending package allocating roughly $150 billion over four years to expand immigration enforcement and deportation operations.
Even if current restrictions are reversed after Trump leaves office, the demographic effects will persist, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
“Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years,” Frey said, “it’s still a demographic shock.”
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