By Ginika Igboke
President Donald Trump says the 2026 midterm elections will largely be decided by voters’ perceptions of prices and economic progress, wagering that easing inflation, lower energy costs, and rising wages will persuade Americans to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
“I think it’s going to be about the success of our country. It’ll be about pricing,” Trump said in a Dec. 26 interview with Politico. “They gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down.”
The comments come as the White House sharpens its affordability message following a series of economic reports showing inflation cooling and growth exceeding expectations. Administration officials say declining price pressures—especially for energy and prescription drugs—are beginning to translate into everyday relief after years of elevated costs.
Inflation Eases, but Cost Concerns Persist
Recent data has strengthened Trump’s argument that inflation is receding. In November, annual inflation fell to 2.7 percent, below market expectations of 3.1 percent. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, slowed to 2.6 percent, its lowest reading since early 2021.
Even so, affordability remains a top concern for voters. Inflation peaked at about 9 percent in 2022, and its aftereffects continue to shape public sentiment. A recent NPR–PBS News–Marist poll found that 70 percent of Americans say the cost of living is not affordable or only barely affordable—the highest share recorded since 2011.
Democrats have capitalized on those concerns in recent off-year elections, outperforming expectations in several races. That dynamic presents an ongoing political risk for Republicans as the midterms approach.
Trump has repeatedly placed responsibility for elevated prices on the previous administration. In a Dec. 17 primetime address, he argued that the national focus on “affordability” only emerged after prices surged under former President Joe Biden.
“When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years,” Trump said, adding that high prices made life unaffordable for millions of Americans. “This happened during a Democrat administration, and it’s when we first began hearing the word ‘affordability.’”
Energy and Drug Costs Central to Strategy
Energy policy has become a cornerstone of Trump’s case that prices are coming down. In the Politico interview, he emphasized declines in electricity and fuel costs, arguing that cheaper oil and gasoline ripple through the broader economy.
“Electricity is down. It’s way down,” Trump said. “When gasoline and oil come down, electricity comes down. It’s all coming down.”
Crude oil prices have fallen about 21 percent this year, helping push the national average gasoline price to roughly $2.83 a gallon, according to AAA. Administration officials say those declines are feeding into lower costs across multiple sectors.
Trump has also pointed to drug pricing as another tangible win on affordability. At a Dec. 19 rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, he highlighted agreements with major pharmaceutical companies to reduce list prices, calling the moves historic and inflation-fighting.
“Your drugs are coming down at levels that nobody ever thought was possible,” Trump said. “This achievement alone should win us the midterms.”
Growth and Political Stakes
Beyond prices, Trump has underscored strong economic growth as evidence of progress. He cited third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3 percent, which exceeded forecasts, as further proof that the economy is on solid footing.
With congressional margins tight—Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House and a 53–47 advantage in the Senate—the political stakes are high. House Speaker Mike Johnson has warned that losing the House could reopen the door to impeachment efforts, while several Democrats have publicly said they would pursue impeachment if they regain control.
As the 2026 midterms approach, Trump is betting that voters will ultimately reward falling prices, steady growth, and improving wages—making affordability not a liability, but the central argument for maintaining Republican control of Congress.
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