By Leslie D. Soule

Lithuanian authorities have declared a nationwide emergency in response to balloons coming over their border from Belarus, carrying smuggled cigarettes. This issue is not purely about tobacco, but rather over a concern about organized crime and hybrid threats from Belarus. Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene has condemned the attack as a hybrid attack that poses a threat to national security and civil aviation.

Declaring an “emergency situation” is not quite as escalatory as a “state of emergency” such as that imposed in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it grants the armed forces additional powers to respond to the situation. The president of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, has stated that the balloon threat is a “deliberate action aimed at destabilizing the situation in Lithuania.”

This is the latest in a series of escalations between NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and non-NATO countries Russia and Belarus. The EU is involved in this exchange, as most EU (European Union) countries are NATO members, with the exception of Austria, Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus. The EU has noted threats from Russia in recent months, condemning Russia’s threats as part of a “hybrid campaign” including sabotage, disruption to critical infrastructure, and drone flights near sensitive sites.

Lithuanian officials claim that around 600 balloons and 200 drones have entered Lithuanian airspace this year, which has led to the repeated closure of Vilnius airport. In response, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, has denied orchestrating the incursions, instead stating that this is an issue that has been politicized by Lithuania.

It is worth noting that in World War 2, Lithuania was seen as having a strategic position, that was valuable to both sides, as this affected supply routes, troop movements, and access to the Baltic Sea. Thus, both sides of the war saw Lithuania as strategically valuable.

That strategic positioning will be important if tensions further escalate between NATO and non-NATO countries.

Original article
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