Win or lose, Netanyahu could remain in power for months after Israeli election as Iran tensions loom

Israel heads to the polls today in what is already seen as one of its most consequential elections in years. It's the country's first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of the 7th of October 2023, and comes after three years of war, growing political divisions and mounting questions over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. But could the outcome reshape not only Israel's political future, but also the balance of power across the Middle East and its relations with the wider world. To talk about all this, I'm now joined by our correspondent, Sasha Vakulina. Good morning, Sasha. So, is this essentially a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu? In a nutshell, yes. But, Stefan, let's face it, every election is a referendum to the sitting government and the sitting prime minister. But, of course, in Israel, this vote carries particular weight. Now, covering this election and in the run-up to the vote today, I've heard every description of this vote from the experts and the politicians in Israel. They called it pivotal, they called it crucial, they called it the most consequential, which gives you an idea on how important the vote is, of course, and what is at stake for Israel, for the region, and for the global politics as well. Now, the turnout is expected to be very high. Reportedly, at least 70,000 people have flown to Israel to cast their votes from abroad. So you have this big anticipation happening. Netanyahu is, of course, as you say, Israel's longest serving prime minister, and the voters are being asked to assess and to judge on his leadership, specifically after the Hamas-led attack of the 7th of October 2023, and also the wars that have followed afterwards. Now Netanyahu, according to the latest polls, he is in near neck and neck race with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot for the prime minister job. And now Gadi Eisenkot is seen as one of the leaders of this election campaign. But, you know, for Israel, a lot comes to security, of course. And for Netanyahu, he will be judged on those aspects and, you know, on all these conflicts on multiple fronts for Israeli government. on its stake on Gaza, on its stake on the occupied West Bank and the tensions there. And, of course, on Lebanon and now the Israel and the U.S. war in Iran and the possible escalation that we have been hearing over the past couple of days that it might renew the tensions there. And then, of course, the investigation that never took place on October 7th. Sasha, you mentioned October 7th several times. Is this date still the defining issue of this election campaign? Very much so. even today on the voting day their families are the people and the families of the October 7th hostages and the victims are gathering the so-called hostage square what they call vote for accountability this is very much a big issue for Israeli society and the voters they want to have this independent investigation the investigation that did not take place because for them it's all about the responsibility and the accountability and who is going to take the who's going to be responsible for what is widely seen as the biggest security failure in Israel's history, Stefan. We're talking about 1,200 people killed in one day, 251 hostages. And this is something that Israelis, the voters, do need answers for. And this is what I discussed with Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow and a professor at Chatham House earlier. The one demand that unites all the opposition, and I suspect mainly from the coalition as well, or those who support the coalition, it's a state commission of inquiry. It's impossible in a democracy, when such a failure that cost a life, in one day 1,200 people were killed, that there is no state commission, an independent one, to ask all the right questions, not only to find who's to blame, but also how to prevent it. in the future the more the government rejects the idea the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide professor could the change of government bring let's say a meaningful shift in Israel's policy towards Gaza towards the West Bank and now also towards the war and the possible escalation of Israel U.S. war on Iran a new government will bring change if it's formed by by by the opposition parties. What we'll have to look at after a government is formed is the trajectory in which direction a new government is taken. When it comes to the Israel democracy, I think it's a big question whether parties that represent the Palestinian citizens of Israel, as the Arab parties, are going to be included in such a government. If it cooperates more with the Board of Peace when it comes to Gaza, negotiate with the Lebanese government on founding security but also beyond this arrangement in Lebanon that Israel can withdraw there's so many issues and of course the core issue is the Palestinian issue if a two-state solution is not going to happen overnight but if we start seeing steps towards is the harshness and oppressive nature of the occupation towards a political solution. There is growing speculation about the renewed military action against Iran after the US mid-term elections on the 3rd of November. How realistic do you see that prospect and would a change of government in Israel make any meaningful difference to this approach? If there is a new government, one would expect to reconsider if the only way to move forward is by using military force. It's also a week after the election in Israel, the midterm in the United States, and between the two it can determine whether the war in Iran is resumed or not. There is no new government in Israel the day after the election. It might take weeks and months, and in the time in between Netanyahu is in the government as an interim government with exactly the same composition of the government and at the same time though not elected with all the power include to go to war it's make it more volatile and more dangerous do you see Netanyahu trying to trying to push for another attack on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections I think we're entitled to be suspicious of the motivation of Netanyahu because his policy are very much intertwined with with his corruption trial and retaining power so creating a crisis is not beyond the realm of possibility including with Iran at the same time in such a volatile regions such as the Middle East with so many fronts still open you can manufacture crisis in different places