Freight data is showing an economy that has split into two tracks. Shipments tied to data center construction and other industrial projects are rising, while consumer activity is weakening. What does that divide tell us about how the economy is doing?
Freight often shows changes in economic activity before they appear in official reports. That makes the gap between industrial and consumer shipments important to watch.
Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, has spent his whole life around the trucking industry. His company tracks how goods move and what it costs to move them. He joins us to explain what falling grocery volumes are signaling about American consumers. ----- 00:00 Intro 01:07 Why Freight Tells the Truth 04:17 Proof the AI Boom Is Real 08:16 The Real Impact of Tariffs 11:20 The Diesel Price Illusion 13:45 Why Trucking Lost Its Drivers 18:52 Why Freight Never Trades Down 22:05 The Weird Drop in Food Sales 27:31 America's Industrial Rebirth 31:39 The Great Freight Recession 35:41 The Truth About the Tesla Semi ----- Let's Stay in Contact: • Substack - https://substack.com/@themarketinsidershow • X (Twitter) - https://twitter.com/MktInsiderShow • Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/company/market-insider-show/ ----- 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘈𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘢 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴.
The trucking activity can be a good indicator on the health of the economy.
It can also give us details of which sectors are doing it well and which sectors are not.
Today we sit down with Craig Fuller, who's monitoring the activity of truckers through
his company Freight Waves. He will tell us that he's seeing a shift currently in the economy and
what this shift is about. One of the things that we're seeing right now is this really interesting
shift in the economy away from really what I call consumer-led activity to more industrial-led
activity. And this is a pretty substantial shift. You don't see a slowdown despite the cost being
a lot more, like 25% higher. You either are going to move stuff or you're not. And it's not like
other types of purchases. Price can continue to go up and people will pay to move it because they
have to. I'm Siamak. Welcome to Market Insider. Craig, it's great to have you on. Welcome.
Thanks for having me.
We want to talk to you about what's going on in the transportation industry,
especially with the diesel prices being so high. Is there still demand? What are you seeing out
there? Yeah, it's really interesting because the freight industry is oftentimes the best barometer
of the overall U.S. economy. And because of the way supply chains work, freight moves earlier than
a lot of the consumer activities or even shows up in government data, certainly, or even Wall
Street. Freight gives you an advanced look at the economy because people are not moving products
unless they have demand on the other side. Ultimately, people are moving freight because
there's some need to move those products from point A to point B. And so one of the things that
we're seeing right now is this really interesting shift in the economy away from really what I call
consumer-led activity to more industrial-led activity. And this is a pretty substantial shift
and, frankly, has probably not existed in our economy for at least over a decade.
And so the industrial economy is doing actually quite well. You can see this in the ISM data.
You could see it in the railroads. They put out weekly rail reports. That data is very promising.
But then the consumer actually doesn't look great. And it might reflect what consumers are feeling
personally is things feel a little off for consumers. Prices are a concern. But I think
the noise is also a concern, the noise being all of the questions about the war, higher gasoline and
diesel prices. All of that is wearing on consumers. And then in the background, the primary driver of
economic activity is AI. And yet we're told it's going to end humanity or has a chance of
ending humanity. So it's like this wonderful gift to the economy is actually causing a lot of
distress. And so now consumers and people are sort of fighting. And whether they're doing it
out in public, protesting, or online, or just feeling uneasy with so much of this activity,
I think that's sapping consumer confidence. At the same time, the consumers are told that
they're not going to have jobs also if AI doesn't destroy humanity. They're not going to have a job.
The degrees of it's Terminator, and we're all going to end, and the machines are going to take
over is sort of one extreme. And probably the highest risk, right? The fact that that's even
mentioned is sort of scary. And then everything in between, including your job is going to be
eliminated. These data centers are sapping all the power and water in my community.
So the noise is not helping. I think what you would otherwise suggest is probably one of the
greatest economic impacts and capital infrastructure build outs in human history. And so it is such an
interesting place to look at it to say, this economy is confusing because it is unprecedented.
Now, Craig, what are you seeing in the truckloads? We've covered the fact that we have
trillions of dollars of investments is supposed to come to the U.S. from different countries.
But a lot of people have doubt whether if this is real or not. What kind of data are you seeing
that is telling you that the build out is stronger than the consumer economy?
Well, it's definitely happening. I mean, I can tell you, again, one of the great things about
freight data or one of the elements that we track is volume of goods moved and people do not move.
You can have a lot of manipulation in commodity markets, energy markets, financial markets.
Even if it's not manipulation, these algorithmic trading patterns that you see
can oftentimes outstretch reality, which is why commodity traders are always looking at
the fundamental data and the technical data and sort of treating them differently. Technical data
helps you make a lot of money sort of short term. Fundamentals help you make money and
preserve money long term. And so the thing about freight data is it is all fundamental data,
like you're ultimately looking at the economy and goods movement. And so we know that the
industrial economy is doing quite well relative to what it's been. And the reason we know that
is we look at the commodity shipments. It's things like steel. It's things like aluminum.
It's things like the chemicals, the petrochemicals that are shipping is absolutely happening.
Materials are happening. So when we look at trucking data and rail, because both of those
are really important metrics in industrial activity, we are seeing record volumes in what
we call flatbed trucking. The flatbed is the stuff where it's stacked. You're driving down the highway
and you're looking at these big steel beams, there's lumber. And so that is what we call a
flatbed. That is the wheel, the generator, the workhorse of the industrial economy.
No one is receiving flatbeds to their house for consumer goods. If you're building a home,
that's usually been the stuff that would be on flatbed is a single family homes. It still is,
but it used to be the primary engine of flatbed activity. Housing, I think everyone knows how
weak housing is. It's sort of sitting this round out, but yet the flatbed industry is receiving
record activity, record demand, and that is all industrial activities. So then we ask ourselves,
okay, what is really happening in the economy that's creating industrial activity? And if you
sort of look at the components of the data in terms of individual commodities moving,
it is largely related to data center related activity and defense related activity. So it's
data centers, power generation, I sort of loop those in together. You could argue that power
generation, energy infrastructure should be separate and perhaps they should be, but really
it's a combination of AI data center built out, power transmission, energy, because U.S. energy
supplies are so robust. We are just globally in terms of output, if you include the United States
in that, the world's largest energy suppliers, but we're also now an exporting nation and that
is driving a lot of investment in energy infrastructure. And then defense is also
one of the biggest generators. So those things are really what we're seeing. And then we sort of
go back to the consumer. When we look at the containerized freight, which tends to be much
more sensitive around consumer activity, it's relatively weak to what you would expect with
the GDP numbers being as robust as they are. Can you see in the data, so it might be hard to
actually track this, but is there a way to tell how much of the industrial, is there a component
of manufacturing, or is it kind of mixed together with the data center? You cannot tell how much of
it is data center built out, how much of it is manufacturing, because there were some thoughts
of some of manufacturing coming back. Well, I think it is coming back, and I do think tariffs
show up in the data, particularly around some of the metals, steel and aluminum are probably the
best examples of where tariffs are certainly encouraging investment. But tariffs, while they
create an enormous amount of noise short term, they don't necessarily create a lot of activity
in terms of big capital investments. And so it's hard to really point to a tariff saying the reason
that this is happening is strictly because of tariffs, I would be stretched. I would actually
suggest that tariffs have done more damage to short-term industrial activity, and you can see
that in last year's data, is that there was so much happening that last year was a relatively
weak freight market, particularly around industrials. And I think what was happening is there wasn't a
lot of new production and new plants. It's very hard to do that when you have a set of
fluid tariff policies. It is the level of unpredictability, which I think the administration
would argue is a feature, not a bug, created some industrial pullback, some investment pullback,
as companies had to recalibrate and figure out where they're making investments. I think the
courts certainly played a little bit of havoc on that in terms of a lot of questions of what's
going to hold up, what doesn't. And I think we saw a pretty substantial pullback in investment
in the industrial sector last year that has, in many ways, this year has come back quickly,
but it's come back in shape quite different than what perhaps you would expect. There's no toy
companies producing toys in the United States. The stuff that was being tariffed was a blanket
instrument, very blunt, across the economy. It didn't necessarily change patterns. I'm using toys
as an example because the vast majority of toys are imported. They're very low value goods,
and we're never going to see toy plants pop up in the United States. Maybe Lego, because of the
premium nature of it, could get away with putting a plant in the US. But generally, toys are one of
those categories that are going to find the lowest cost producers. And there's really very little,
despite the tariffs, to go put production. Apparel, you could link to that as well. The
stuff that is coming back is the higher value industrial goods that you would see in a data
center build out, again, energy infrastructure. And we know that from the commodities being
moved. When we look at steel and aluminum and plastics and chemicals, we know who are the
consumers of those products. And therefore, we can derive something substantial as pulling
on those product categories. And you look at where those products are going. That's the great
thing about freight data. As you look at location, you can see that they're going into an AI data
center build out or into that ecosystem, into that supply chain. Now, diesel prices are a record,
and I'm sure this has an impact in your industry. And do you see that having an impact on freight
rates? And how does the freight rates look right now? And is it impacting both of these sectors?
How does it impact the consumer goods and then these industrial goods?
Well, it certainly is having an impact. But we look at so diesel isn't as correlated to
transportation prices as perhaps you would naturally assume. Only about a third of the
price of freight can be answered in energy movement. I'm far to the price of movement in
freight. So you can have two very disparate prices. One is what we call line haul, which is
the transportation from point A to point B that has nothing to do with energy. And the other is
the fuel surcharge or diesel surcharge that's tapped on top of it. And you can strip those out
to sort of get an understanding of what is the underlying transportation cost, if diesel was
flat, if it was basically not an effective price was not moving. And what we know from the data
is that prices for transportation are going up despite or in addition to diesel. But transportation
prices will be going up regardless of what's happening in diesel. It's just another input
that's part of that equation. So really, if you are buying transportation services,
you're getting hit from two cost inputs, tighter capacity, I want you to think about freight as a
commodity, which is always hard to do, because we think about commodities and things that we
can tangibly hold. But ultimately, freight is a price driven market, where people will always
go to the lowest cost providers or orientated to the lowest cost providers. And therefore,
it trades, not necessarily in a futures market, but is bought and sold like a commodity price
moves substantially, even when you take the price of energy out of it. And what we know
is the price of transportation is moving up regardless of the price of energy. However,
energy is also moving up, which is creating a compounding effect for buyers of transportation
services. And how much is it moving up? What have you seen? So transportation, I'm going to
take what we call the line haul portion, which is the transportation itself without energy in that
equation. And that is up about 25% year over year if we're talking spot markets. So and what is
driving that now that is trucking, I want to be very clear when I'm talking about it's trucking
rates, not ocean because ocean is also a factor in here. Those rates are up as much as 300%
year over year. And so when you look at what's driving it is there's less capacity.
Why is it less capacity? The US, the federal government under this administration
has put a lot of energy, no pun intended towards enforcement of truck driver registrations,
regulations. And so what they're saying is over the last two decades, there's been this massive
influx of unregulated, unregistered, and then their argument, and there's data support this
unsafe drivers entering the market. It's been a free for all. And what's happened is you've
ended up with a safety, security and economic crisis for trucking companies all at the same
time. And I want you to think about the fact that trucking labor drivers is the capacity
constraint in the freight market. It's not the number of trucks, the truck manufacturers can
produce more, they'll never stop producing more if they thought there was demand, they will open
up new plants, they'll run more shifts. That has never been the capacity constraint. It's been can
you get truck drivers to sit in those seats and drive those trucks. And that is the constraint
in the market. And so over the last two decades, a very large percent of the truck drivers that
entered the market are immigrants, both legal immigrants that are properly documented,
very trained and amazing workers, and undocumented or illegal immigrants that,
in some cases can be great drivers, but don't have the necessary regulations or paperwork to
or permits to even drive trucks. And then you have this really bad group of actors, which
are both undocumented, and are unsafe. And they're the ones that are driving a lot of the
attention. And unfortunately, those immigrants that, you know, are doing hard work or amazing
workers are getting caught up in that as well. And I think that is causing a pretty substantial
amount of pressure on capacity. Because new entrants are not new drivers are not entering
the market. Immigrants largely are exiting the trucking industry, or at least that's we have a
large number of exits. And there's no new entrance coming in. Again, I want to remind everyone that
immigration is a an enormous labor pool, both legal immigration and illegal, you know, illegal
immigration. And because of these pressures, even legal immigrants are sort of staying away from
the trucking industry. And I think, rightfully so, they don't want to get caught up in it. They
don't want to deal with the hassles, they're finding alternative work. And as we see more
immigration enforcement, they're finding alternative work, you probably have noticed, we've been in Uber
lately, the majority of your Uber drivers are former truck drivers, ask them, what were you
doing before you took this job? I always like to do that. And it's interesting how many are
former truck drivers. And these are people who were not born here in the United States.
What's the impact on the costs? So this 25% of freight rates have gone up. Does that include
the diesel costs or the diesel costs on top of that is on top of that freight rates, the line
haul rates are up 25%. Diesel is an additional input or an additional cost input and diesel
prices on a year over year basis, or, you know, in some cases have doubled. Over the past year,
we've seen diesel prices double on the national average. And that is certainly showing up in the
data and is impacting consumer prices, but also core output prices. Is it a significant portion
of the transportation costs? Or is it like 10-20%? Is it 30%? Do you have any thoughts?
So diesel as a sort of percent of total mile per gallon, what we would translate in terms of price,
today, represents about a third. Okay, you mentioned it was a third. Yes, yes.
In a in a market like a year ago, it would represent, you know, as low as, you know, 12 to
15% of the overall cost of transportation. So it moves because these are independent variables,
the line haul rate, which is the underlying movement of point A to point B net of fuel
is also moving up, but diesel has moved up faster relative to line haul. And therefore,
it today represents about a third of that cost. Now, you don't see a slowdown, despite the cost
being a lot more like 25% higher. Trade is one of those things that is not it's not a discretionary
cost, like you either are going to move stuff or you're not. And it's not like other types of
purchases. Consumers will sit out and not buy a new car because it's expensive. Maybe interest
rates sort of tell them, hey, it's not a good time to go make these big investments. They will even
trade down from say, you know, maybe maybe they skew steak and they go to chicken. When you look
at Costco's data, they publish this data, where they talk about consumers trading down, they went
from buying steak to buying chicken to buying, you know, more now processed meats. Trading down
is a big piece of it. But freight is not one of those things you trade down for you either buy it,
transportation services, because you have a reason to move it or you don't. And the only reason you
should buy transportation services because you need to move something. And so there is no element
where somebody says it's a very elastic market, and the sense that price can continue to go up
and people will pay to move it because they have to. And so that's one of the great reasons that
it's such a barometer for economic activity is because it's not something that people opt in
and out of. They're not going to delay the movement of goods by because transportation
prices are high. Now there's going to be some edge cases and some anecdotes and I'm sure somebody
will comment on the comments about, well, I didn't do that. But generally, people are not
looking at transportation or shipping costs and opting out for something when we're talking about
at the macro level. And so the prices are sort of irrelevant in terms of telling us whether or not
consumers are purchasing these goods or not. They're really more of a reflection of supply and
demand. And that's why I love the data because it tells us the truth and oftentimes and is not
manipulated. People can manipulate the financial markets related to oil. And you'll see this where
they'll take these financial contracts and get pretty sophisticated and they'll take positions
and that changes the forward curve and therefore we look at the price of oil dropping or increasing
based on sort of the financial manipulation that's going on. And it's all legal when I
say manipulation. It's just the way the financial markets work. In freight, it has nothing to do
with that. It's either there was somebody buying something to move or moving something that they
bought or not. It's the actual data. It's the real data of people doing what they're doing.
That's right. And what we know is that demand in the industrial economy is actually quite high
and consumer activity is dropping. Now, let's parse a little bit of the consumer activity
because I think this is a fascinating piece of data. Oddly, is consumer packaged goods,
particularly food and beverage, is the weakest part of the consumer. Now, we'll put housing
aside for a second. But the weakest part of consumer activity is in consumer packaged goods,
food and beverage. Now, the interesting thing, if you go back to 2008 during the financial crisis,
food actually increased. We saw consumption of things like snacks and beverages increased,
not lower. And yes, inflation is a part of that. We hear that from soda companies talking about
aluminum prices. It's showing up in their data. It's costing them more. We do know that inflation
is a factor in some of it. But the types of stuff that we've seen a drop is not... Consumers will
trade down. So think about this from a perspective of your own life, is when a price sort of shocks
you, you go to a restaurant and you're like, oh my gosh, that restaurant was... The meal that used
to cost $20 now costs $60. And I've had price shock too, where I'm just like, I can't believe
that this has gotten so expensive. Interesting enough is that grocery, bought at grocery stores,
tends to be a lot less, a lot less inflation and tends to move more product. But yet we're
seeing grocery volumes drop. It is not a price standpoint. Consumers are still consuming the
same amount. Conceptually, if it was just price, then consumers may trade down to a cheaper go
from filet to flank steak or flank steak to chicken. They're still consuming a unit of a
volume. So for my world, goods, I don't really care what the price of the goods moved. I just
care about the volume. And what's interesting is that something else is slowing consumption
of food and bed. So now we have a more interesting question. If it's not inflation, which I don't
believe the food and bed situation in terms of the volume of goods purchased is necessarily
inflationary related, because actually the high volume goods tend to be highly processed.
And it tend to be the lowest vet, like lowest cost items in the grocery store.
But those are the ones that are dropping something else in the data is telling us that consumer
behavior is changing right before our eyes. And so we would attest that there's a couple of things
that benefits have been cut. That would explain some of it for sure. Population. Again, we're
looking at units consumed, not dollars consumed. Population is dropping. We can see it in the
grocery data. There are just fewer consumers buying groceries. Therefore, it's there. But
we also believe that GOP ones and the whole health movement, whether you believe that Kennedy
is the smartest guy in the administration or he's not at all, the whole awareness on health
and consumption, the Maha movement, even if you're not a diehard Kennedy guy, that noise out there,
consumers are becoming aware of the stuff that's in their food. This highly processed food
is changing. Consumers are eschewing highly processed foods. And they may be trading up
or trading down to something else. But they're just they're staying away from sort of these
high snack categories. And so that tells us that something else is really, really happening. And we
it's again, SNAP benefits, population, and GOP ones and health generally are dragging down
consumer consumption of food and bev. So it's not the economical issues. I think, look, the economy
is certainly there. Inflation is there. It's certainly having there. But consumers are still
at the end of the day, you got to eat. And you wouldn't cut eating, you would cut other things.
Yeah, if you're trading down, maybe you don't buy the, you know, the name brand ice cream,
but you buy the grocery store ice cream, by the way, Walmart, you know, I go to Walmart,
I might shift from Breyers to the great value, great, great value, ice cream is really good.
And it's like half the price. So you may decide to trade down, but you're still buying a unit of
one ice cream. I'm on a GOP one, I've lost 50 pounds. And what's interesting is I forget to
eat, I skip entire meals. And I have to ask myself, did I even eat today? Because you don't
notice it. And they and you look at the data. Walmart has a fantastic set of data, where they've
compared their pharmacy, which they're one of the largest pharmacies in the United States,
they've compared their pharmacy data, subscription or prescription data to consumer purchases that
are also the one of the largest grocers in the United States, they have the benefit of being
able to take those two data sets and compare consumption patterns based on drugs that
someone's prescribed. And what they've determined is that if there's a GOP one
prescription in the house is that the consumer is less likely
or they consume less calories, they purchase less calories. And I think if it's a male
prescribed prescription on a GOP one, they're buying 10%. The entire household is spending 10%
less calories purchased, which I think is an astounding fact. When you look at the size of
our economy, and in our business, the trucking business, we measured about 2 million truckloads
lost just in terms of GOP ones alone. Fascinating. Now going to the industrial
side of the economy, you're seeing a significant increase. Can you tell us more about that? And
where is the freight going? Yeah, so it's again, I we would say that there's three sort of horsemen
of the industrial economy right now. AI data center build out is one of those energy
infrastructure, you could divide that between electricity, I'd probably put AI, the power
generation is more of an AI story than it is anything, but you could sort of loop those
together. Energy infrastructure is a little different than we're just talking about power
and transmission. It's things like natural gas and oil. I mean, one of the great things about
the war, whether you love it or hate it, is that the United States or the Americas and let's loop
Canada, Mexico, and even Venezuela now, as the Americas broadly, it's the safest place to buy
energy. Like you think about it, it's the not only non contested part of the world that has energy
surplus. The Middle East, that's in a contested zone, Russia, Ukraine, contested. And so what's
really nice about where we sit in the Americas, is that so far, and I hope that this stays, we
don't ever have to contend with military conflict in the United States, is that our refiners are
ships, they're very safe, they can come get oil and energy and energy derivatives, and ship it
around the world without having obstructions or dealing with pirates like you have off of the
coast of Africa, drone attacks like you have due to Iran and the conflict that's taking place there.
And so we're a very safe place to source energy and industrial chemicals. And I think that's what's
really driving some of this. And I think over time, we will continue to hear new manufacturing
investments and plant expansions, not because of tariffs, but because of energy. And energy and
power is far more important. I mean, you look at heavy duty industrial, the largest input cost is
the cost of power or energy. And it's far more important than labor. And I think you can look
at Germany, the mistakes that you've seen in Europe, particularly Germany, of decommissioning power
plants in this sort of quest to be green, has really destroyed the industrial plant of this
very mighty country. I mean, Germany is still today, but every day is less so an industrial
powerhouse. And what's happening is that because they have decommissioned their energy infrastructure
so severely, they've made it prohibitively expensive and substantial gaps just in terms of
access for industry to produce any type of real heavy manufacturing there. And so it's moving
outside of Germany and Europe broadly. And the Americas has become a very attractive place for
that. So I think we're going to see more of that happening. And look, whether you love tariffs or
hate them, they are an instrument that is used to drive activity. I think probably the best thing
for tariffs has been the idea that you're changing trade. There's a balancing of trade. You could
the administration has won some concessions, but it doesn't really impact the short-term
industrial economy to the degree that perhaps some folks would want it to happen. You put a tariff
and all of a sudden a big manufacturing plant shows up in your city or in the country. That
just doesn't work that way. It takes years of planning, particularly how bad NIMBYism is in
the United States. Even if tariffs could do this, trying to build something is a years-long
process because of all the NIMBYism. Getting into your industry a little bit, we have had truckers,
I host another show called California Insider, we have had truckers on the show and California
truckers have been in depression based on what they've told us. It was the truck is not doing
here. Is it getting better for the truckers? Much better. The great freight recession,
which started in 2022, was the longest and deepest downturn in trucking history. In fact,
I would argue worse than the great financial crisis. It was very confusing because it wasn't
as if the economy had rolled over so deeply that it would suggest that this would be worse than
the financial crisis. California is sort of ground central for this. This massive influx
of immigrants into the labor force, into the driver force. There was a movement of deregulation
to make it easier to become a truck driver. What was happening is the larger companies,
because this is sort of part of that story, the larger companies thought they were doing
themselves. As it became harder and harder to recruit American truck drivers or licensed and
legal immigrants into the industry, because that was sort of you the old days, is you had the sort
of prototypical truck driver 30 years ago, which tend to be, if you go back 60 years ago, these
old trucking movies that were sort of old white men, then we shifted into a black and Hispanic
Latino sort of second generation immigrants. Then over time we shifted into legal immigrants,
became a big source of freight, of truck drivers, and then we kind of ran out of legal immigrants.
And so we started as an industry bringing in illegal immigration to fill the seats,
to handle all the freight. And that's where things went awry because you went from high quality
immigrants who were excited to be here, who had done all the work and had all the training,
had all the certifications, had the work permits. And then you said, wait a second, as an industry,
and I'm not talking we as in freightways, but as an industry, the industry said, hey, we still have
to have new drivers. We have this driver shortage problem and we can't find them in these pools.
Let's make it so easy that anyone could join the industry. And that was really happening at the
same time that the Biden administration opened the borders sort of completely open. And you got
this massive surplus of illegal immigration, in addition to refugees and people who were sort of
maybe legitimately allowed to be here, happening. And trucking, because it doesn't require,
you know, a lot of sort of education, skilled labor. It is very easy to learn to truck,
especially when you've lowered the training requirements, which also happened. And so the
industry eroded its own barriers to entry because the larger motor carriers thought, hey, we want
to make it easier to hire drivers. Now, the motor carriers did not realize, the ones that were
pushing for this, they thought that they would all be legal immigrants that would join the workforce.
And that was what their intention. They want to make it easier. What they didn't realize was that
the bad actors, many of them foreign owned, some of them owned by organized crime syndicates
overseas, California is sort of a ground center for this, using their sort of own ethnic communities.
And some of it was human trafficking. And I'm not talking sexual human trafficking. I'm talking
worker human trafficking. They would recruit people from these countries overseas and offer
them a life in the United States. Pay would be better. Remember, a truck is a moving apartment.
You actually don't have to find a place to live. You could drive and live in a truck. And that's
exactly what happened. And that's what the administration has been trying to crack down on.
And I think the industry is genuinely supportive. One last question about EV trucks. And there was
just an announcement from Elon Musk, and there's been a lot of push in California to do that.
But there's a new one that can go 500 miles with 30 minutes charge. Do you think that's
going to get fully adopted in this space? It's such an interesting question. So our reporter was
actually out at the release last week, road and track, didn't have a CDL driver. So they asked us
to our reporter who or editor who does have a CDL to drive the truck. He's been a truck driver for
decades. And he was very skeptical of the Tesla Semi as most truckers are. But I've heard this
from him and heard it consistently. And look, I was pretty skeptical to be frank, when Musk came
out with the introduced the Tesla Semi in 2017. As many things with Elon Musk, he loves to tease
things well before they're in production. Sometimes he's like, hey, we're gonna have this,
you know, in a year or two. And look, as a co founder, as a founder, I also get caught up in
that where this is my idea, I'm gonna do it. The timeline is always a little weird. What's
interesting is Tesla over the last nine years has really refined the product to where it is a
very, very roadworthy product. Adam Wingfield, who we have on Freightways, the editor,
said he was astounded and really impressed with how good it drove, how much better of a product
it is for the driver. And so from a driver perspective, I think there's going to be a lot
of enthusiasm for the product. But let's be very clear, range is your biggest problem. Eventually,
the technology will catch up. But even at 500 miles, that is still a defined range for that
truck, it will be good in places like California, where you have government incentives to help fund
it around the ports. And the sort of local California transportation, it's the perfect
application. When you talk about long haul trucking, it's, it's got, it's, we're not there
yet. And so probably within the next decade, the Tesla semi and electrification, the battery
technology and charging technology and infrastructure will have caught up to where the vision is,
but we're still in a very, I wouldn't call it a niche, because it's actually quite large. We're
still in a very specific type of trucking, which is local and sort of super local trucking within
200 miles is probably the from point A to point B, it's probably the right range. And that gives
you the ability to pick up the product, deliver it and then come back to home base within a day.
And that's those are the ideal applications. Now, Craig, you are very passionate about this
space. And you have your publication. Tell us about the publication and how you got involved
with it. And why? So I've been around the industry my whole life, my dad started what
became the fifth largest trucking company, United States, my uncle started what is now the eighth
largest truck company, United States, rival companies, by the way, it competed. So I'm a
multi generational trucking brat. My grandfather was one of the first guys to put two drivers in
a truck and drive cross country. So I've got it in my blood. I've got diesel in my blood.
And I've been around it. And then in 2017, I had this idea of starting a
business media business, I think inspired by the Bloomberg Terminal, of taking real time high
frequency data, but also a media business and creating a business of freight, which is we call
freight waves, which covers high frequency news stories and data about the industry. So we're on
the front lines. We are the market category king in that high frequency world of news and information.
So if you're trying to find out what's happening in the freight business, we are really the primary
source for both people in the industry, but also outside the industry.
Craig Fuller, it was great to have you on Marketing Insider. Please come back and update
us in the near future. Have a great day. Thank you.
Yeah, appreciate it. Thank you.
Tell us what you think about this conversation with Craig. Do you see a lot of trucks on the
road? And do you see industrial development in your communities? Make sure to tell us in the
comments. And make sure to tell us where. I'm Siamak. This is Marketing Insider. We'll see you next time.