Kim Jong Un's Mysterious China Visit: What Was Really Going On?

Hello everyone, welcome. Well, this is a Monday night special because I usually don't do programs on Mondays. I took the weekend off and didn't do any programs, but one story caught my attention. Kim Jong-un's sudden visit to China. First, he was rumored to be dead. Then he showed up in China. I thought to myself, something doesn't seem right here. So I decided to look into it. And the more I dug, the stranger the trip seemed. And so I decided to do a special program tonight. I know it's one hour earlier than our usual time, but you won't be disappointed. Okay, let me tell you what I found. First of all, the rumors about Kim Jong-un refused to go away. You would think his public appearance would put them to rest. But instead, his sudden visit to China raised even more questions about his health, his grip on power, and his relationship with Beijing. And above all, why did he go to China and why now? Here's what I found particularly intriguing. He arrived in China just two days before the CCP's fifth plenum, one of Beijing's most important political meetings, which actually already started. Day one has already finished day one. So was that coincidence? Excuse me, my voice. Was that a coincidence or was it or his trip was connected to something happening inside the Chinese leadership? So to help you understand, let's go back and revisit the death rumor. So it started on October the 18th. It was a sensational rumor circulating in the overseas Chinese community, which says that Kim Jong-un was dead. It was released by a Chinese dissident living in the U.S., and he claimed that Kim had suffered a massive brain hemorrhage, being rushed to Beijing for emergency treatment, and died there. His body had been secretly returned to North Korea. There was no evidence to support the story, but it spread like a wildfire because within days, international media outlets, including Britain's The Sun, America's New York Post, and India's Economic Times, and there may be a few others, they were reporting on the allegations. Now, when this many foreign media outlets report a baseless Chinese rumor, it looks a little suspicious to me. And I'll explain that later. And then the speculation quickly escalated. There were even claims that Kim's powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, had secretly taken control. But people wonder, What about his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Joo-Ai? Kim Joo-Ai, yeah. Would she succeed him? Because she is the chosen heir. And what role would Beijing play in a possible leadership transition? Well, North Korea responded by releasing photographs and videos, or video footage, showing Kim attending an apparel, a clothing and footwear exhibit. in Pyongyang on October the 19th. And he appeared to be conducting business as usual. And he was with his wife and daughter. So the message was clear. Kim was alive and still in charge. But because the footage came from North Korea state media, people, not everyone was convinced because the exact date couldn't be verified. It could be an old video or an old picture. And then on the 23rd, South Korea's National Intelligence Service reportedly dismissed the death rumors as false. You would think that would settle the matter. But the very next day, Kim Jong-un crossed the border into China. And what happened next was anything but routine. Instead of traveling to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, Kim went to Dandong, a Chinese border city. He was received by Wang Huning, China's fourth ranking leader, and then Kim returned to North Korea just a few hours later. Now, the official explanation was very straightforward. Kim came to commemorate the 76th anniversary of China's entry into the Korean War. Both Beijing and Pyongyang said so, but his visit only fueled more speculation. Was Kim already in China for medical treatment? Was this a carefully staged appearance to dispel the death rumors? Or was he facing a political crisis at home and urgently seeking Beijing's help? And what about the upcoming APEC summit? Could Kim have been coordinating with China ahead of important diplomatic meetings? Those are all possibilities worth examining. But I think there's another explanation that's been largely overlooked. Why did Kim choose to visit China at such a politically sensitive moment just two days before the CCP's fifth plenum? And could his visit have had less to do with what was happening in North Korea and more to do with what was happening inside China or Beijing specifically? Before I share my analysis, I want to show you six unusual details about his visit. So let's look at them one by one the first one was that there was no advance announcement normally when a foreign head of state visits China Beijing announces the trip days or even weeks in advance but this time neither Beijing nor Pyongyang announced anything beforehand kim simply showed up in Dandong the visit had all the appearances of a last minute arrangement second kim didn't go to beijing and he didn't meet Xi Jinping. Now, you have to understand he had visited China five times before. On every occasion he met Xi Jinping, four of those meetings took place in Beijing. The only exception was May 2018, when Kim returned to China just two months before he was in Beijing earlier. And this trip was timed before his historic summit with Donald Trump. That time he met Xi Jinping in Dalian, a coastal city in northeastern China. Xi Jinping was already visiting Dalian, and the location was convenient for Kim as well. So even though he didn't go to Beijing, Xi Jinping personally received him. Now, you have to understand, Kim Jong-un isn't a leader who has many countries to visit. Since taking power, there are only three countries that have hosted him on formal bilateral visits. And they were China, Russia, and Vietnam. He also traveled to Singapore for his summit with Donald Trump, but that wasn't a state visit. So for Kim, a visit to China is a major diplomatic occasion, and it's not something he undertakes casually. But this October visit was very different. For the first time since taking power, he visited China without meeting Xi Jinping and without going to Beijing. Instead, he settled our meeting in a border town. That was the second unusual point. Third, he traveled by car. Kim Jong-un is famous for his heavily armored train. That's his preferred mode of transportation for long-distance journeys. Of his previous five trips to China, he traveled three times by train and twice by private aircraft. But this time, he crossed the border by automobile. It was the first time he had entered China by car as North Korea's leader. Now, traveling by car offers one obvious advantage, flexibility. Arranging a trip by armored train or aircraft requires extensive advanced coordination, including security arrangements along railway lines or flight routes. A car trip across the border can be organized more easily. So could that suggest the visit was arranged on relatively short notice? Okay, fourth, it was his shortest visit to China. His previous five visits lasted between two and four days. This time, he spent only a few hours in Dandong before returning to North Korea on the same day. So no trip to Beijing, no extended bilateral summit, no overnight stay. He came, met with Chinese officials, visited a few locations and left. And that raised another question. What was so important that Kim needed to cross the border personally, yet could apparently accomplished in just a few hours, right? It's contradictory. for a communist leader like Kim Jong-un. All right, my fifth point is he visited an automobile factory. Now, this is an interesting detail many people have ignored. In December 2017, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2397. It prohibits member states from supplying automobiles and other transportation vehicles to North Korea. China voted in favor of that resolution. Yet one of Kim's stops in Dandong was an automobile factory. Why would Kim visit a factory making items he can't really legally get? It's almost like a man with drinking problem who is ordered not to get close to alcohols now go to China to visit a winery. Even if Kim is attached to this quote-unquote alcohol and insists visiting, his host, Beijing, should know it's very sensitive. Now, visiting an automobile factory doesn't violate UN sanctions, but given the restrictions on vehicle exports to North Korea, the choice of his activity in Dandong is certainly worth examining. Okay, my last point is that he was received by Wang Huning, not Xi Jinping. This may be the most interesting detail of all. Now, according to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Kim was originally expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang. And then on the 24th, South Korean lawmaker, I think his name is Yoon Kung-young, he even announced that Kim had met Li Qiang. But later that day, he issued a correction, the South Korean lawmaker. South Korean intelligence had received additional information. Li Qiang was supposed to travel to Dandong, but the arrangement had changed. Instead, Kim was received by Wang Huning. So what happened? Did Beijing change its plans at the last minute? or this trip was so ad hoc that it caught Beijing's CCP leadership off guard that the plan to arrange someone to meet him at the last minute was not easy. We don't know. But there's something else worth considering. Now, if Xi Jinping wasn't available to meet Kim, who would be the most appropriate Chinese official to receive him? Li Qiang is China's premier and oversees government administration and economic affairs He would have been a logical choice for an economically focused visit But he is not someone who is, how to say, he's not someone who would receive a head of state from a communist country Because like Xi Jinping, Kim is the leader of the Workers' Party of Korea He's the party secretary So when it comes to party-to-party relations Cai Qi, Xi Jinping's closest political aide Should have been the CCP official to receive Kim Jong-un Because Cai Qi oversees CCP's central secretariat And coordinates important party affairs Yet, neither Li Qiang nor Cai Qi appeared. Instead, Beijing sent Wang Huning. Of course, he's somewhat important because Wang Huning is a longtime political strategist who has served three CCP leaders, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping. Sometimes he's called Xi Jinping's political makeup artist The man who helps package and satisfy Xi Jinping's political ideas or image But he's not responsible for economic management, foreign relations Nor is he the official who normally coordinates parties' daily operations So why was he chosen to receive Kim? Was it simply because one was available in the scheme of things? Or was there something else on the agenda? Okay, I do not know. So let's step back. So what do these six unusual details tell us? Here's how I interpret them. Taken together, they suggest that this trip was arranged, or at least finalized, on a relatively short notice. Think about it. Neither side announced the visit in advance. Kim didn't travel to Beijing. He didn't meet Xi Jinping. He didn't use his customary armored train or private aircraft. Instead, he traveled by car. He spent a few hours and then returned home. And also the Chinese official who received him wasn't the one South Korean intelligence had originally expected, suggesting that Beijing may have changed its arrangements at the very last minute. All of this raises an important question. Was this an urgent meeting arranged outside the usual diplomatic schedule? That's a fair question to ask. Now, there's one complication. South Korean reporting suggests that preparations for Kim's visit may have begun weeks earlier. Of course, discussions about a possible visit to China could have been ongoing for some time, but that doesn't rule out the possibility that timing or the timing agenda or arrangements changed shortly before October the 24th. So that brings us to another question. Who really wanted this meeting? Who really initiated this meeting? Beijing or Pyongyang? My suspicion is that the initiative didn't come from Beijing. Here's why. If Beijing had urgently requested a meeting with Kim, I would have expected Kim to make demands about the arrangements. After all, he would have been doing Beijing a favor. He could have insisted on meeting Xi Jinping as he had on his previous five visits, or at least demanded a more substantial reception in Beijing instead. But he didn't get that, right? Of course, that doesn't prove Beijing wasn't the initiator. The visit could have been mutually arranged, and the Korean War commemoration provided a legitimate reason for the location and timing. But consider the optics. Kim Jong-un is the supreme leader of a highly centralized regime. He rarely travels abroad, and his previous visits to China involved considerable diplomatic preparation. This time, he made a brief trip to a Chinese border city without meeting Xi Jinping. So why would Kim accept such an unusual arrangement if Beijing asked him to come for a meeting? So let me flip the question and ask, did Kim Jong-un urgently need something from Beijing? Or was he trying to communicate a message that couldn't be delivered through normal diplomatic channels? And that brings us to the question I really want to explore. What could have been so important that Kim Jong-un needed to cross the border into China personally, yet Xi Jinping didn't meet him? First, you have to understand the timing. October 24th was an extremely inconvenient day for Beijing to receive a foreign leader. It was just two days before the fifth plenum when more than 200 members and alternate members of the party's central committee would gather in Beijing to discuss the country's political direction and the future of party leadership. Officially, the meeting was about strengthening party governance and discipline. But with the 21st Party Congress approaching next year, questions about Xi Jinping's political future and succession would inevitably loom over the gathering. So in my view, the different political factions will be busy negotiating, maneuvering, and preparing for what could be a major political showdown. And Xi Jinping was certainly busy And this was hardly the ideal moment to host Kim Jong-un Now you have to understand something about Kim's relationship with Beijing Even though North Korea has moved much closer to Russia in recent years Kim still depends heavily on China economically Beijing still remains Pyongyang's most important trading partner And a crucial source of economic support So China could simply have told him let's finish the fifth plenum first then we'll arrange a proper visit for you but Kim came anyway he didn't get his usual red carpet reception he didn't travel aboard his armored train he didn't visit Xi Jinping I mean he didn't meet Xi Jinping so why was he willing to accept such an unusual arrangement right Well, let's consider a few possibilities. First, and the foremost, he was trying to dispel the rumors about his death or health. That's what most people think. That's certainly possible, and it's very possible. But if his only purpose was to prove that he was alive and healthy, why go to China? North Korea could have arranged another highly publicized appearance in Pyongyang. Kim could have attended a military event, delivered a speech, or appeared before a large crowd. He didn't need to cross an international border to do that. So I'm not convinced. Second, was Kim facing a political crisis at home? Remember, when the rumors of his death spread, there was also speculation that his powerful sister had secretly taken over. But here's something interesting. Pictures from the visit, from his visit, showed that the sister, Kim Yo Jong, was part of the delegation accompanying his brother to Dandong. Now, if she really were leading an effort to remove him, would Kim have brought her along on an overseas visit? that wouldn't be possible, right? And there's another detail. Unlike Kim's September 2025 visit to Beijing, he didn't bring his daughter, the 13-year-old Kim Ju-ai, who is widely regarded as his successor. This matters because some Chinese commentators speculated that Kim had come to China to, in Chinese, what they call, Basically, it's an act to entrust your young heir to Beijing's protection in case something happened to him, to the father. But if securing China's support and protection for his daughter was the urgent purpose of his trip, why leave her behind? You would think that he would bring her along. Now, neither his sister's presence nor his daughter's absence proves that everything is stable in Pyongyang. But I think these details weaken the more dramatic theories that Kim was fleeing a family power struggle or urgently arranging protection for his heir or successor. In fact, if you think about it, the fact that he left his presumed successor at home while he traveled abroad also suggests to me that he wasn't particularly concerned about an immediate threat to her position, that home is relatively stable and in control. So if we put aside the unsubstantiated health rumors and speculation about an immediate succession crisis, what else could explain the visit? Well, there's another theory, which is that Kim worried about the upcoming APEC summit. That's another possibility. The APEC leaders meeting is scheduled for November 18th and 19th in Shenzhen, China. And Donald Trump has already said that he would attend. There has been a lot of discussions about a high level, a possible high level diplomatic meeting involving Russia. So a potential meeting among Trump, Xi and Putin will certainly attract enormous international attention. And Kim has every reason to pay attention to that meeting. He would want to know what Beijing, Moscow, and Washington might discuss, especially if North Korea's nuclear program or the possibility of renewed U.S.-North Korea negotiations were on the agenda. Now, here's my problem with that explanation. APEC is still more than three weeks away. Why couldn't Kim wait until after the fifth plenum, then visit China before APEC? Why choose one of the most politically sensitive moments, in Beijing's calendar, right? And why would Beijing agree to that? Beijing could have said, well, you wait, you know, just wait a few more days. So that brings us to my theory, my own theory. I think Kim's real concern may have been the Fifth Plenum itself, not AIPAC, not the rumors about his health. He was concerned about political developments inside Beijing and Zhongnanhai. Think about it. Kim has enormous stake in who controls the Chinese Communist Party and what direction its leadership takes. China isn't another diplomatic partner for North Korea. It's Pyongyang's economic lifeline and an indispensable political backer. A significant change in Beijing's leadership or even a major shift in the balance of power within the CCP could have enormous consequences for Kim and his regime. So with the Fifth Plenum just two days away, Kim may have already heard something, or even way before that, and perhaps he was very eager to find out exactly what was going on. Was Xi Jinping's authority secure? Were important personnel changes being discussed? Was there a struggle over the party's future leadership? These are questions Kim would have every reason to care about. And if he believed something consequential was about to happen, waiting until the meeting was over might not have been good enough for him. He would want to know before the decisions were made public. And he might have believed that sending a representative to Beijing wouldn't get him the information he needed. He would have to go himself for a confidential high-level briefing. And so that brings us to Wang Huning, the official who met him. Now, Wang isn't another senior official. Like I said, he is one of CCP's most senior political strategists. If Kim wanted insight into Beijing's internal political calculations, there was no need to send Cai Qi or Li Qiang, because both could be very busy at the moment. Wang Huning could deliver the message. Now, I want to be clear, we don't know what Kim and Wang discussed privately, and we have no direct evidence that Kim came to China to ask about Xi Jinping's political future. But this interpretation could explain several unusual aspects of the visit. Why there was no advance announcement, right? Why Kim came at such an inconvenient time? Why he was willing to meet Wang Huning rather than Xi Jinping? Kim, why the meeting took place in Dandong near the border rather than Beijing, and why the entire trip lasted only a few hours. Maybe Kim wasn't there for a ceremonial visit, but he came for information, a brief confidential exchange with someone who understands the inner workings of CCP's leadership. And once he had what he needed, he went home. But you may say, well, what about the automobile factory, right? Well, that was presented as part of the diplomatic program highlighting economic operation. I find it difficult to believe that touring a car factory was the urgent reason Kim personally crossed the border just two days before the Fifth Plenum. I think it's largely for show, for cover-up, and precisely because the local activities in may not have been the main purpose of the visit. Perhaps the people arranging the itinerary didn't give every detail sufficient thought. Remember our analogy about taking a drunken man to visit a winery? That's how I see the automobile factory visit. Given the UN sanctions restricting vehicle exports to North Korea, it was a very odd choice of destination for Kim. I believe it may be a small oversight caused by the last minute nature of the arrangements, because I suspect the real purpose of the visit was the private conversation, not the public itinerary. All right, having said all that, you may have another question. If Beijing's top leaders were so busy preparing for the Fifth Plenum, why agree to receive Kim at all? And that brings us back to the death rumors. Remember, the original rumor claimed that Kim had been, whatever, he was dead and he was secretly brought, or no, actually before that, it says that he was sick, he was extremely sick, and he was brought to Beijing for emergency treatment, and he died there. And that rumor started in the Chinese-speaking communities, right? So I think that rumor of Beijing might have been drawn directly into that story. By receiving Kim publicly in Dandong, China could help demonstrate that he was alive and the relationship between the two countries remained normal. I mean, China has a need to clarify the rumor as well. So that gave both sides a reason to publicize the visit. Kim could counter the rumors about his death or health. Beijing could demonstrate its continuing relationship with Pyongyang. Here's another possibility I've been considering. What if the death rumors themselves help make this unusual meeting possible? Remember, like I said, the rumors originated in the overseas Chinese community. If Beijing was uncomfortable with such a rushed visit, it may have worried about the international speculation the trip would generate. A sudden, hours-long meeting between Kim and one of China's most powerful political figures just two days before the plenum would naturally raise questions. What were they discussing? Why the urgency? Was something happening behind the scenes? Was something developing between the two countries? But once the rumors of Kim's death were circulating worldwide, his sudden appearance in China could be interpreted very differently. Now, instead of focusing entirely on the political significance of this urgent but short meeting, much of the attention would go to Kim proving he was alive. That leads to an even more provocative possibility. Could the rumors have been deliberately encouraged to provide a convenient public explanation for Kim Jong-un's sudden visit? And if so, could someone on the Chinese side have had a role in spreading them? I think it's a political possibility. It's something, I think, worth examining. Those of you who follow China News or study CCP politics should include that possibility in your study. Now, I mentioned how Western media outlets quickly reported the rumor. Here's my thinking. They're not supposed to be covering this crazy rumor. Western media outlets generally do not cover Chinese political rumors until they can be proven. So whenever they do cover these crazy rumors, I suspect some forces in Beijing is involved. Mark my word. Yes. Every time, because I didn't even believe the rumor. I'm sure these Western media outlets don't believe the rumor as well. But why do they report it? It's not just one. They're everywhere. So whenever that happens, something is happening. that is because there is a secret force in beijing behind to push the rumor forward okay so next time when you see western media outlets all of a sudden talking about a crazy chinese rumor you know it's some forces within the ccp want that rumor to be spread yeah and they're pushing western media to do that uh think about it without the rumors okay let me put it this way Without the rumors, such a short, unusual visit by Kim Jong-un might have attracted even more attention to the private meeting itself. With the rumors, the public narrative became much simpler. Kim Jong-un was alive. He had appeared in China, and the two countries arranged the meeting to show that the rumor was false. at the cost of the credibility of those Western media outlets. So that narrative could have been useful to both sides, regardless of who started the rumors. And given today's complicated geopolitical environment, Beijing might well have preferred that explanation to speculation about secret political coordination with Pyongyang. That's what they prefer. They don't want the spotlight on this meeting, given the current geopolitical environment. So here's how I put the pieces together. The anniversary explained the occasion. The death rumors explained the publicity and may have even provided political cover. But the fifth plenum and CCP's power dynamics may have been what Kim Jong-un was really interested in. And because Kim has always been in the family, in the communist family, Beijing has an obligation to keep him in the loop. When the little brothers say, hey, I need to know what's happening in the family. I need to know. I'm entitled to know because I'm in the family. Then Beijing has to, to some extent, you know, give him an update. So if that's correct, if my theory is correct, then the most important part of Kim Jong-un's visit wasn't the ceremonials, the memorial ceremony, the bridge, the bridge crossing, or the automobile factory. It was what Kim Jong-un and Wang Huning may have discussed behind closed doors. That's the most important part. Okay, so this is everything I've gathered for you about Kim's sudden but mysterious visit to China. I didn't know I was gonna find so much. I thought about it. I had a lot of questions. The mainstream media outlets' coverage of this rumor did not make any sense to me but when i put all the pieces together i somehow start to understand this this visit so that's that's what i have found all right let's see what do people say oh i have a if i'm live animal there are there are artillery being deployed by North Korea at the DMZ. I think that could be, that's in response to South Korea, I think. Yeah. That's more of a South Korean issue. Yeah. Yeah. If it's a normal diplomatic visit, Kim could wait. Yeah. Anyway, that's, that's just my, I mean, I could be wrong. I'm not saying this is one theory of many theories. There could be many theories. And I'm not saying that mine is the only one or the or the one that's correct. There could be many other possibilities, but I think this is a unique angle for you to consider in your political analysis because it's so strange. This trip looks so strange. The timing, everything does not make sense. And yeah, that's what I have. All right, I'm not going to do any Q&A because this is Monday night and I have other things waiting for me to handle. I thank you very much for joining me wow there are quite a number of people here and I'll be back tomorrow for a program oh the fifth plenum has started and it's very interesting and I'll talk about it tomorrow okay there's no official report no official pictures or videos being reported the news release was very brief and whenever Xinhua's news a press statement becomes extremely short it means it's serious when it's long when it's that's all for tonight thank you very much i'll i'll be back tomorrow with more information about the fifth plenum bye