Assessing China's growing military strength

On June 17, 2022, China launched its third and most advanced aircraft carrier from a shipyard in Shanghai. A 2021 Pentagon report stated that the Chinese Navy is now the largest in the world with approximately 355 ships, exceeding the U.S. Navy's 296. Has China overtaken the U.S. Can China defeat the U.S. militarily? The dramatic rise in naval vessels does point to a very worrisome trajectory. But one-on-one, the answer is most likely no. Nonetheless, for the foreseeable future, war with China needs to be taken very seriously given our rapidly shifting world. Today, we'll consider this important question from two angles that you may not be aware of. Let's first go back to the naval stats. If we only look at the number of ships, China does have the largest navy. However, many other factors are needed to evaluate total strength. Rapid expansion of China's armed forces started soon after Communist Party leader Xi Jinping came into power in 2012. Because Chairman Xi is eyeing a Taiwan takeover, he's invested primarily in the Navy and Air Force. In 2021, China's estimated military spending reached $270 billion. That's still less than half of the U.S.'s total expenditures, but nearly four times that of India's, the world's third-largest military. But because China prepares to fight right in its backyard, it invested mostly in smaller ships. In terms of total vessel size measured in tons, the U.S. fleet has a great advantage. More tonnage correlates to more weaponry, bigger crews, further travel capabilities, and greater ability to absorb damage. China's new aircraft carrier, Fujian, does herald a significant milestone to be sure. It's China's first home-designed carrier and a major upgrade from its other two. The first carrier was purchased from Ukraine in 1998. It was a two-thirds-built, rusting vessel that hadn't been touched since the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. But by 2011, the Chinese Navy had completed construction and began sea trials. Two years later, construction of a second carrier based on that same Soviet design began, but it has rarely left port since its completion in 2018. Experts question if either of these can stand the test of a real battle. As for the new carrier, Fujian, its real power remains a question mark. Its top feature is an electromagnetic catapult launch system, but sheds keep the world from knowing how complete it is. A similar system on the USS Ford took eight years of sea trials before being certified as combat-ready. So, on the aircraft carrier front, the U.S. is well ahead with 11 vessels. But more important than armaments to any military are the people who run them. Under Xi Jinping, China doubled its naval personnel in the past decade. Training this many people properly in such a short period of time, especially people with no modern war experience, is incredibly difficult. And besides this, China's military is arguably one of the most corrupt in the world. From its early days, the People's Liberation Army has been plagued with greed and corruption. In the early 1940s, when the Chinese government's army was fighting Japanese invaders, the CCP's army cleared a forest to make space for a profitable marijuana farm. Fast forward to 1985. To expand a thin defense budget, Deng Xiaoping decided to allow the military to conduct commercial activities that would cover 40 percent of their total expenditure. This, almost overnight, turned the military into a money-making machine. In no time, thousands of military-owned businesses were established in all sectors, from aviation and telecommunications to financial services and nightclubs. At that time, the military research institutions all turned their eyes to civilian industries. For example, the Harbin Aircraft Manufacturing Company established the Hafei Automobile Group and focused on civilian vehicle manufacturing. In another case, a radar manufacturing facility, codenamed Factory 780, became Changhong Electronics to make televisions. Military personnel also turned to trade. China Poly Group is among the biggest of such companies. And if the name sounds familiar, that's because it's recently been added to a U.S. list of sanctioned companies. Poly Group was once China's top ammunition manufacturer and overseas seller. Over time, it expanded into real estate, entertainment, telecom, financial services, and even a fine arts auction house. It's now a Fortune 500 company. The company was founded and is still led by children and relatives of top PLA leaders. These connections give cover for lucrative illegal operations, such as smuggling. In 2001, the Philippines' National Security Advisor, Roilo Gólez, told the BBC that about a billion dollars' worth of methamphetamines were smuggled in from China each year. These drugs were manufactured by Chinese military-run pharmaceutical companies. In 1995, the corruption had gotten so bad that the CCP attempted to rein in these businesses, which then numbered around 15,000. At least on paper, many of these businesses disconnected from the PLA. Health care, though, was a notable exception. Military hospitals did not stop offering paid services to the public until 2017. Many of these hospitals were leading the charge in China's large-scale organ harvesting from living prisoners of conscience. These were primarily Falun Gong practitioners, but also ethnic and religious minorities, as well as political dissidents. According to incomplete statistics, by September 2014, Chinese military hospitals had harvested at least 11,000 livers per transplantation, also other vital organs. Actual numbers are believed to be much higher. Another remarkable example of corruption is this Chinese general. It's a great privilege for me to introduce to you General Xu and welcome him to CSIS and to the policy community of Washington. General Xu. In October 2009, the Washington Think Tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, welcomed General Xu Caihou. General Xu eventually climbed to the number two position in the PLA and he oversaw anti-graft and disciplinary enforcement. Ironically, only five years after this CSIS speech, Xu is taken into custody for corruption. He died before a military court proceeding in 2015, but charges included taking bribes from high-level appointments. He appointed a total of 83 generals and each of these may have made him between 3 and 4 million US dollars. Hong Kong media at the time reported that in the basement of one of his luxury mansions, investigators found piles of international currencies that weighed a total of one ton. The room was also filled with jewels and other valuables that filled 10 military trucks. The general was hardly alone in getting cash for making appointments. In the past 10 years or so, China has arrested 160 high-level officers on similar charges. In fact, before Xu Caihou died, he told investigators that among the military leadership, only two officers did not bribe him. So what does this mean? Many of China's military leaders are where they are because of connections and money and not because of talent or experience. When it comes to an actual war, China may find that its military leadership is very incompetent. Of course, none of this is to say that the world should let down its guard. A bellicose dictator with the dangerous weapons behind him should keep us on our toes. The best way to prevent China from taking dangerous military action is to maintain unquestionable military superiority and to consistently message our determination to ensure peace and protect innocent people. And thanks for joining us at Eye on China. I'm Liam O'Neill.