2025 is Your LAST CHANCE to Sell Your Home at the Top of the Market!

The housing market is shifting fast. I mean, we have been at crazy prices for the last couple of years. But could 2025 be the last time that you're going to be able to sell your house at the top of the market? It probably will be. And in this video, I'm going to explain to you whether your state has a lot of inventory or a little inventory. What that means for you and when you need to sell. In addition, that answer is going to be completely different whether you are in a blue state or a red state. So let's get into it. So I sell real estate in both the Chicagoland area and the Northeast Florida area. And so I have a completely different perspective in these two different locations on what's happening with the market. And I found this very, very interesting graph, this very interesting data that I want you to take a look at. If you don't want to follow along on screen, you can certainly download my seller's playbook because I have updated my playbook again. And you will see that this information and all this data is going to be in there as well. So we found this amazing graph. It's from Altos Research, and it is going to show you the increase and decrease in inventory since 2019. Now, as you guys know, a couple of years ago, the inventory was down across the whole country. Now it seems that there are 10 states that have inventory greater than 2019. So that is a shift in 2025. Now, did you notice something that I noticed in looking through this? Maybe. The homes that have the tightest inventory, that has the least amount of homes after 2019, are Democratic or blue-leaning states. It's kind of interesting, isn't it? I mean, I thought everybody wanted to move out of a blue state, right? And when you look at the states that have the most inventory after 2019, all but one of them are Republican-leaning states. So now what does this mean? Does it mean that prices are up only in the blue states or prices are down in the red states? Well, I'm going to go through this and explain to you kind of how this is happening and why this is happening. So now this list that I am giving to you, if you guys want to go back and look at it in the Sellers Playbook, it doesn't mean that if you are in a blue state or a red state that this video necessarily applies to you. What it means is that if you have a lot of inventory or a little inventory, you need to be looking at what I'm going to be talking about. I don't do politics in my videos, and this is not a political video. That's not what I'm talking about. So now because I'm boots on the ground, I want to share with you from my agent perspective, my very local agent perspective on what I think is happening and why this happened. I'm going to first start talking about Illinois, which I know extremely well. Now, Illinois is its own unique being. So when I'm talking about it, I'm talking about what commonalities or generalities some of your other states may have. And I want you to see if it kind of is similar. It's not going to be the exact same, but I want you to kind of look at the commonalities. So now if we go back to the beginning of 2020 as an agent who's working boots on the ground, I mean, when COVID hit, who thought that everything that would have happened, happened? I didn't. I mean, I was definitely wrong numerous times in what was happening, but you could not sell enough homes. Like there were so many people who wanted to move out from the city to the suburbs and the market was crazy and prices went absolutely crazy. I mean, at the beginning, we thought prices were going to go down and the market was going to die because of COVID and that is absolutely not what happened. So then when all of the schools were shut down for longer than a couple of months, there became this rush to move. Now, not just move out of the city into kind of a rural area, but to move out of the state or to move to another location just to do remote school. And for those of you who don't know, Illinois had an incredibly stringent lockdown for years. It was very, very draining on the kids, on the families. And so the people who already were sort of on the fence with wanting to leave Illinois, who could, they were like, we're out of here. We're done. We're not staying. So a lot of people did make moves during that time. They upgraded, they moved to a better location that might've been more conducive for their environment and what they wanted for their families. But then many people actually did leave the state or they bought a second home outside of the state. So now after COVID was over, the inventory got really, really tight in Illinois, like none. And if you look at our list, it is right up there with one of the states that has the tightest inventory, the least amount of inventory. Now that then caused prices to completely skyrocket. So in Illinois, the homes were going for astronomical amounts of money. The first day it would go on the market, I mean, you'd have 50 showings. I had one condo that had 30 offers on it the day it went on the market. So the inventory in Illinois, into the Chicagoland area especially, has not gone up. It is still very, very tight. And then when interest rates went up, again, we thought that prices were going to go down because interest rates went up. And that was absolutely not true either. Prices continue to go up because buyers really did need homes. So they continue to go up and there still is no inventory. Now, why is that? If everybody is saying they want to leave the state of Illinois or they want to move around, there's so much going on, why are people not moving? What is the reason? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Now in 2019, before COVID, NPR did a research study that said 61% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state. Now, from being an Illinoisan, I would agree with that. Like the taxes, the lockdowns, the stifling, the corruption. I mean, it was very, very intense when you got into COVID. But even prior to COVID, you had 61% of Illinoisans saying they wanted to leave. So again, why isn't there more inventory? Now recently, 51% of Illinoisans said they would leave if they were the opportunity. This was a 2023 poll by Echelon Insights. Illinois actually lost 141,000 residents on net to other states from July of 2021 to July of 22 alone. So Illinois is facing a serious out-migration issue. So the top reason that they say they want to leave the state are taxes, crime, cost of living, and of course, the weather. So again, you're saying, why is there no inventory if everybody wants to leave the state of Illinois? So I have a couple of theories. I divided all the people up into four basic categories. I'm looking at this from the North Shore of Chicago. So I'm going to say the Chicagoland area. Inside of the city is going to be a little bit different, and the Southern parts of Illinois are going to be a little bit different. But I'm going to call this the Chicagoland area. There are four types of people. The first type, they have to stay for their children. Maybe they have grade school or high school students, and they have to stay. They do not want to cause an issue for those children. The second reason people have stayed is because of work, their jobs. They have to stay in Illinois because of their jobs. It's just not feasible for them to move. Now, the third group of people, and I know a lot of these people are literally only in the state of Illinois because their family lives there. There's a lot of people like that too. So now we have three of the four groups. What is the fourth group? The fourth group are people who love Illinois, people who love the Chicagoland area. They love everything about it. They don't care about the weather, and they think it is fantastic. So those are my four groups of people. Three groups want to leave, and one group wants to stay. So now you're still saying, why isn't there more inventory if everybody wants to leave the state of Illinois? Well, I'm going to get to that. But I also want to talk about the fact that there's not a lot of people coming into Illinois. So the population gain in Illinois has been minimal. In fact, since 2020, Illinois has lost 418,000 people to domestic migration, the third highest loss in the country after California and New York. Again, you're saying, if everybody wants to leave Illinois, and it's that bad, why is nobody selling their home? So this is where a local real estate agent can tell you specifically what's going on. And I'm going to tell you this, and then I'm going to talk about Florida as well. Like I said, it has increasing inventory. A local agent knows at a real grassroots level what the feel is on the ground. They know, like are people coming to the house? Are they making appointments? Is nobody making appointments? What is the feedback that they're getting about the price? I'm always looking at national data, but I kind of take it with a grain of salt because you cannot take national data, like this one chart, and then apply it to every single location. Because I want to explain to you why I think right now is probably the best time to sell at the top of the market in both states that have inventory and states that don't have inventory, and what's going to happen in the future if you wait. So there will be a tipping point. There absolutely will be a tipping point in both locations, but they are going to be different. And that tipping point is when the interest rate gets to 5%. Now, at least it has a 5% in it. Now, what does that look like for the foreseeable future? As of right now, that doesn't necessarily look like it's going to happen this year. Rick Sharga of CJ Patrick Company said, I don't expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5%. So he's saying the low 5%, that's a tipping point. And as you can see, mortgage rates going into 2025, it really does not look like you're probably going to get below 6.33% on average. Now, is that correct? We're not real sure. We're not sure exactly what the new administration is going to have in store for the economy, so we don't know. But the people out there are saying, yeah, you know what? It doesn't look like it's going to come into that low 5%. So now what that means is that tipping point may not happen. But if it does, you need to be ready because you need to understand how that's going to affect the home sales in your specific market. So now let's talk about why that's such a tipping point. As you know, being a homeowner, many, many people refinanced when they had their homes. 2%, it's just that it's high for people who have 2% and 3% rates right now. So when somebody with a 2% rate is thinking about moving maybe to an upgrade or maybe they're downsizing something, they're enhancing their lifestyle, they are not going to save any money. And with interest rates higher, and especially in Illinois, property taxes soaring, the prices of homes and the affordability of homes is out of control. So now the real reason homes are sitting, and I'm saying this in Illinois, could be a blue state, it could be a state with no inventory. I want you just to look at this. The real reason homes are sitting is those people have no place to go where it's going to be affordable for them to go. That's really the main issue. So those rates when they come down is going to make more people feel like, okay, we can kind of take this and do this. We can work with this price. It's maybe a little bit more, but we can't afford it. Now you have to keep in mind that if your state has increasing property taxes, what that's going to do, because then the affordability may not be there. So even if rates are coming down in some of these states that have really high property taxes, those people may still be staying put. Now when, when, I'm going to say when the interest rate comes into the fives, even the low fives, what you're going to see is you're going to see prices go, especially if there's no inventory. Now, if there's a lot of inventory, we're going to talk about that in a minute, but if there is low inventory, those prices are going to go up because those buyers now have more money that they can spend or throw at homes. So inventory goes down, prices are going to go up again, and especially in these areas that have tight inventory. So if you are in Illinois, there is tight inventory. Not a lot of people are moving. Interest rates go down. Prices may still go up, but how long is that going to happen? So when the interest rates fall, you have more buyers who enter the market. Prices increase. Homeowners list homes. That makes more inventory available, which means that prices will come down. And don't forget in Illinois, there are 51% of Illinoisans who currently want to leave the state. Now, don't think they're not going to when their children graduate from high school or when their family passes along, or maybe if they get a new job, they will leave the state. So there will be then more of an increase of inventory. So as inventory goes up, prices will come down. For the short term, when interest rates go down, prices will go up, but that will stop as more buyers enter the market. That's why it's so critical that you understand what hitting that tipping point in the interest rates is going to do in your specific market. So for those of you in Illinois, I want you to understand what that interest rate drop could do, and I want you to be prepared. So if you are thinking about moving out, you need to be preparing now. This may also happen in other states that have low inventory. I don't know. You really have to get in and talk with an agent who understands your local market to see if what I'm saying about Illinois pertains to your state as well. Now, there is an increase in Florida inventory, and that is for a couple of reasons. I want to explain kind of why that is and what sort of happened is we know during COVID, a lot of people flocked to states that were more open. Typically, those were the Republican states that had less stringent guidelines. Many people bought second homes or they really relocated when they realized that remote school was going to be a the future. So they would move to these states. Now, many of these states also have better weather. So that's one thing also that you're tying in with it. Better weather, they could go outside, things like that. Many of these homes that were bought in these other states were second homes. The home we actually bought in Florida was bought by somebody during COVID and it was their second home. They had a home in Kentucky and they wanted this home as their COVID home. So they came in and they paid a lot of money for the house and they put work into it. They put money into it. They repaired a lot of deferred maintenance and then they decided that they weren't using the house very much as their state opened up. So then when they went to sell, they couldn't sell it for what they paid for it, plus all of the money that they put into it. So they actually took a loss on it. So now as I watch the homes in my neighborhood, I am watching homes that are sitting on the market a lot longer than they were a couple of years ago. And that's because people are no longer flocking to these states. A lot of people who, for example, wanted to move out of Illinois already moved. Those people are already in Florida. So there's not this excess amount of inventory of buyers coming into Florida right now. So now when I'm talking about Florida, I'm also talking about specifically where you are in the state because it is different in various parts of the state. We refer a lot of agents, especially in South Florida, to a lot of different people down there. I'm talking to a lot of sellers as well. So I'm hearing in Sarasota that it's very rough. There are a lot of issues from the hurricanes to the insurance costs to the condo safety rules that have been put in place. So as many of you know, when the condo building did collapse in 2021, Florida took some serious action to ensure that it never happens again. So they put some new laws in place about keeping condo residents safe. HB 7069 was passed by the Florida legislator in February of 2022. And this is about more inspection requirements for condos that are over three stories. So they also said that reserve funds are now required for these condos as well, not only the inspections. So repairs have to be made on these condos, which means these costs are being handed over to the residents of these condo buildings. So now not only do you have the hurricane issue coming at people, especially on the Gulf Coast, you've got the special assessments. Now we also have a condo investment that we have, and this investment cost us $18,000 in special assessments. I look at our condo building and I think, wow, some of these people have been here, you know, 30 years. They bought these condos when they were $115,000. These people don't have $18,000 sitting around in order to pay out of pocket. In addition, the association did not break this up into payments. It was really a lump sum payment. So many of these people were forced to sell their condos. So in our condo building where there had only been two condos on the market for two years, this past year, there were 12. And that's because these people could not afford the condo assessments. That was an unintended consequence of that, but that in conjunction with people not really moving into the state has also increased the inventory. So right now you do have a lot of inventory, especially in Florida and probably some of the other red states that were open. People just are not flocking to it. Now you need to look at your specific local market again to really understand. The area that I'm in in Florida, in St. John's County, in St. Augustine, that area is doing still pretty well compared to the rest of the state. So it does depend on your local market. And that's why I really, really, after this video, I want you to make sure that you're talking to a solid agent who knows your market really well, who is experienced to be able to say, Hey, I feel like this is going to happen. So now if you are in a state that has increasing inventory or has a lot of inventory, I'm going to tell you, you have to price your home under the market. The last thing you want to do is to be riding the market down. So you need to look at all those numbers that I put out on what your state is and does it have increased inventory or decreased inventory? If you have increased inventory or in your state, or it's starting to get to that point, you have to price it under the market. Otherwise, if you price it above the market and the market's going down, you are going to be riding that market down and you will not catch up to it until it's really low. So you've got to go and do a big price reduction under the market. Now I want you to keep in mind, and I want you to think about this. Prior to 2019, was your house worth what it's worth right now? Probably not. It was probably worth less. So you're still at the top of the market. Maybe it wasn't what you were looking at a year ago or two years ago, but you were still probably at the top of the market. I don't want you to get greedy. I want you to sell the house if you have to sell it for what it's worth in this market today. Because remember, you also have to be watching those interest rates, especially if you're in a state with a lot of inventory. Once those interest rates go down, there is going to be buyers who are coming out, but you're also going to get those sellers who have been on the fence because they haven't been able to have anything else to purchase. There will be even more inventory that comes on. So keep in mind, if you are in a state that has a lot of inventory or a little inventory, that interest rate is going to really, really be the tipping point for you in understanding what the market's going to do when you go to sell. So the three things I want you to know in order to sell your home successfully. Number one, you have to have a great local agent who can talk to you about the market, can talk to you about, are these other homes getting showings? What is happening with the buyers? What are they saying? Are you seeing more inventory coming on? You've got to make sure you understand that local, local market. So this is why I have offered up my services to help you find a real estate agent. We referred out over 400 million in volume in just one year alone. That's because sellers like you who don't know where to go or don't know who to trust are looking to me to help you find somebody that you can trust. And we're going to put three agents in front of you. We're there through with you until the end. Had a lot of sellers reach out that are seriously very scared and lost, and they don't know what to do. We handhold you through the whole process. When you get a referral agent from us, I am there for you to email me or to call me or to text me for me to help you make that decision, to make sure that you're maximizing your dollar amount and to make sure you're minimizing your stress. You can use the QR code right there on the screen, or you can go to the link at profitable.homes, and we'll go ahead and help you find somebody right away. Second thing you need to know in order to make sure you're selling your home at the top of the market is you have to stage and make sure the house looks great. I have a ton of videos on this. I talk a lot about this all the time. I want to make sure you subscribe because we are looking to hit 50,000 subscribers and we want your help. We need to have this video pushed out. If you think that this is a great video, you can share it, like it, and make sure you subscribe. And then the third thing you have to make sure you're doing is you have to make sure you price the home correctly. Now I have a great pricing video that's going to kind of walk you right through it. It's going to show you exactly how to price your home, and it's going to make sure that you're pricing it maybe just a touch under the market if you're in an area with a lot of inventory or right at the market so that you can maximize your price if you are in a market that has no inventory. Sellers in states with limited inventory. So tight inventory keeps prices high. Yep. If you are in a state with no inventory, your prices are probably still going to stay high. That's great. Number two, selling your home is going to protect your equity. You need to make sure you get out when you can, okay? I don't want you holding on thinking, oh, maybe we'll get an extra $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 out of it. If you think the time is right and you need to get out and you want to protect that equity, you probably need to think about selling in 2025 before those rates go down. And number three, local matters. You have to be talking to an agent on the ground. I have talked to you about Illinois. I've talked to you about Florida. I've talked to you specifically about the location that I was in and my general knowledge of the whole state. However, an agent who is in Southern Illinois or Sarasota, Florida is going to tell you something different, and that's why you have make sure you're getting that local, local knowledge. To sellers who are in a state with a lot of inventory, or it's possibly rising, three things you need to know. Rising inventory will soften prices. Your timing is critical as those rates drop, especially when they hit that 5%. You've got to be worried that the inventory is going to increase then and the market will go down. And number three, you have to price it correctly under the market to sell. Now, as I've talked about for everybody, no matter what state you're in, it may affect you a little bit differently. You've got to be watching for that interest rate reduction. Doesn't look like we're necessarily going to hit it in 2025, but we might depending on what happens. So you have to be prepared. You need to talk to a local agent right away. And you guys know you can always reach out if you need me. I'm here for you. But before you go, I want to make sure you watch this next video about how to price your home in any market. Thanks for watching.