Is There a Housing Supply Crisis Heading Into 2025?

Hey folks, Dan Ferrier here with our final broadcast back for 2024. So it is 2025 tomorrow. So what should we be expecting next year? So let's first talk about where rates are. Rates are basically stagnant over the last couple days. I think basically the markets are waiting right now for the Trump administration to get sworn in and then also see a lot of the things that are gonna transpire during that administration. So I think that's what is happening right now in the equity markets, we're seeing the same things. Well, I'm just gonna show you at the latter part of this video, it's just a little sneak peek of what we're gonna talk about in our housing videos and our rate videos coming up this week. And we're gonna look back and how we would, our forecasts, how they did in over the last maybe two or three years. And I'm gonna have to give us a thumbs up on most of that. And then what our forecasts are in 2025. What I will do is I'll make sure I put forecast, my forecasts in the titles and thumbnails, so you know it's my actual forecast. But without further ado, let's look at what's happening right now. The markets are basically stagnant. So thanks for watching this video, right? Also be hours before the ball drops, let's get to it. Okay, so mortgage rates stagnant today. They kind of petered off the latter part of the day right through here, the bond markets, it was up most of the day and then kind of the market was ready to close. I think just traders just went in and like, I'm just dumping my stuff. I'm getting out of here for the day and just calling it a year. So I think that's what happened today. So don't read anything into that piece of the puzzle. The equity market's the same thing. It's the Dow, the Dow is eight points, 15 points, 106 on the NASDAQ, which is still on the NASDAQ. It's really nothing. We have the Russell 2K at three and the VIX down as well. So it really not bad news there. Okay, so now let me talk about one thing. Here's what the headlines are gonna be. You're gonna start seeing all these other forecasts of the housing market's gonna crash again in 2025. I know it didn't do it in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 when everybody predicted it. And then 2024 was supposed to be that point even when rates went to 8%, still didn't crash the market. So now they're saying, well, there's a five-year lag effect or something like that. So here's what you're gonna start seeing. The housing market is heading into 2025 with worrying supply trends. Okay, so let me just show you this. Here's what you see on the context. And it says active listings were up 12% and they're up the highest level since 2020 and so forth. Let me just give you a little sneak peek. Folks, I don't pull punches. I just give it as it is. Here's the data. Here's what the content is telling us. Do your own research. That's the biggest advice I can give you. I don't care where in the country you are. These are national details. You know what I'm saying? The market's up, this one right here, it says right through here. The market also ended the year up 3.6%. And a lot of people are gonna say, well, these numbers are fake and whatever. But let me just show you one thing. Here's our housing inventory. Does this look like it's skyrocketing? Well, yeah, but I'm just showing you a little clippet of all the data. So if you look at this data, you're gonna say, my goodness, there's so many houses on the market, it's gotta crash. And if this was the case, I'd be on your bandwagon. Let's get over, that's a one-year supply chain. Get down to a five-year. Let me get my head out of the way so you can see the whole context of this thing. Okay, so here we go. You're right through here. Here's now a five-year chart. So if you look at this, it's like, okay, five years. What do we go back to? 2000, let's go to 2020. Well, okay, that was during the pandemic. Wasn't a ton of people buying, depleting our inventory. Okay, well, let's go to a 10-year chart. Now we get the picture. Okay, so now we get the picture. Here's where inventory is now. Let's go back to 2019 pre-COVID before everybody started buying houses at two and 3%. It was right through there. So in July of 2019, there was 1.2 million. Where are we at now? 950. So are we just blowing away the inventory numbers? No. So folks, this is why I do my videos on a daily basis. You need to understand how a lot of people just cherry-pick their data. They'll pick a city or a little county or something like that to prove their points. Look at it at a national level. So what I want you to understand is all that matters to you guys is your situation. Where do you live? What kind of home are you buying? What neighborhood are you getting into? That's where we can help you. So the first step of buying your first house, maybe in 2025, you need to get pre-qualified. That's what I can do for you. So I'll just jump into what I do and who I am. My name is Dan Frio. I do this report two times a day. I'm gonna give you information in the beginning of the day, where the markets are going, where interest rates and so forth. I'll give you housing data. Mostly it's all housing data, some equity stuff in there as well, but my whole goal is to educate you guys on real estate. Okay, so that's what we do. So go visit me on my website. It's therateupdate.com, and there's three things we'd like you to do here. First, if you wanna put in your application, you could do that. Just click right there, and you're gonna launch it out there. I really don't want you to do that. What I want you to do is either one, schedule a consultation with us, or call us, okay? You should be vetting us. What do we do? Who do I work for? What kind of programs do I have? What states do I cover? It's pretty simple. I'm in all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico. I'm set up with over 40 different banks and lenders, so I can offer you basically any product that's out there. I have, and I also work at ServBank, the number 10 largest mortgage servicer in the entire country. So we also have mortgage products here. So just think of it, one application, one credit pool, and we're gonna shop your loan to over 40 different lenders. So to get started, like I said, just hit the Apply Now button, schedule a consultation with me, Allen, or David right through there, or the best choice, I would say, is just give us a call. There's our number, it's 844-775-5626, or you can reach me personally at Dan at TheRateUpdate.com, and it is me, folks. And also, if you have a question or you want me to call you back, just add your phone number in there. I'd love to give you a call so we can chat over what you're looking to do. So thanks for watching, guys. God bless, have a fantastic evening, and happy new year to you. Be safe out there and responsible. See you here tomorrow morning. Bye.