The Leafs are in absolute SHAMBLES...

The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost five straight games, all at home. They scored nine goals in those games and led in 22. The Maple Leafs are in shambles, and the standings say it too. 8-11-2, seventh in the Atlantic Division, with only Detroit under them. What makes that strange is the power play is seventh in the NHL, and so is the penalty kill. Which means the problem is in special teams, and the numbers tell you exactly where the problem lies. Fans are asking for the new head coach Jim Hiller's job already this early in the season and John Chayka said he could go out and make a blockbuster trade. So is it the goalie, is it the coach, or is it just the roster? And is there still time to fix it? Last night against Minnesota, the Leafs were tied 2-2 after two periods. Then Minnesota scored three times in the third period and Matt Boldy had three goals in the game. Leafs outshot Minnesota 28-26 that night, so this was not a team getting buried. It was the same against Colorado two days earlier. Toronto had 31 shots to the Avalanches 28 and still lost 6-3. Add up all five losses and Toronto had 139 shots on goal to its opponents 147, which is close to even. The difference is what went in. 22 goals on 147 shots is an 8-50 save percentage over the streak. The offense had nine goals on 139 shots, 6.5%, and that's its own problem. November 8th against New Jersey was the low point, a 4-0 loss where the Leafs were outshot 29-23 and Hellebuck stopped all 23 shots for his first shutout as a Devil. They have scored one first period goal in five games and four third period goals, while the other side has scored 10 in the third. That leaves Toronto with 18 points, and Tampa Bay and Montreal have 28, with two fewer games played. Boston is third at 27 points, and the top three teams in the division are the ones that get in without a wildcard. It is not over, but it's time to figure out what is breaking in Toronto. Start with what is working. The power play is at a 27.1%, 7th in the NHL, with 16 goals on 59 chances. That is the best power play in the Atlantic, ahead of Florida at 23.8% and Tampa Bay at 21.2%. The penalty kill is at 85.5%, 2nd in the division behind only Florida, and Toronto has allowed only two shorthanded goals. This is not a team that can't score either. 3.29 goals a game is 14th in the NHL, right in the middle. Now the other side of it. Toronto allows 3.52 goals against a game which is 7th in the league. The only team that is worse than that in the division is the Buffalo Sabers. Boston allows 2.42 a game, and that 1.1 goal difference per night is the gap between third and seventh. Opponents put 29.3 shots a game on Toronto, the most of any team in the Atlantic Division. At 5-on-5, Toronto has 48.6% of the shot attempts, 22nd in the NHL, and 45.4% of goals, 25th. None of this started with the streak. Natural Stat Trick had the Leafs 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals share on October 30th in a Hockey News breakdown. The warning signs were in the numbers before even the first loss and nobody could see it because the pucks kept going in. A team that gives up that many chances a night needs a goaltender to bail them out and that's why this next number is a problem. The Leafs 5-on-5 save percentage is .888, 27th in the NHL. Anthony Stolarz is at .900 on this season and the other half of the tandem, Bobrovsky, is at an .881. Bobrovsky is on $7 million through 28-29 with a no-movement clause, so he's not going anywhere. The slow start makes every save matter more. The Leafs have trailed first in 12 of 21 games and won three of them. When they score first, they have won five of nine, so one goal early changes the entire night. They have allowed 23 first-period goals, fourth most in the NHL. The lineup is thin right now, too. Morgan Riley left the November 7th game with a lower body injury, and he is considered day-to-day. Chris Tanev has also been sitting out games. The team calls planned maintenance, and he said he wants to play. The Leafs are 2-7-2 with John Tavares in the lineup and 6-4-0 without him, which is a small sample, but it is a question the coach has to answer. Through all of it, Auston Matthews leads the team with 29 points and 64 shots on goal, and Toronto is still 8-11-2. The rest of the scoring is thin behind him. Nylander has 22 points, Rozellvic with 20, Cowan with 16, and Murchenkov with 14. And if you want daily breakdowns just like this on everything that's happening around the NHL, where you're home for it here on YouTube, go down below and hit that subscribe button. When a team slides like this, of course the coach is going to get the most heat. Jim Hiller said on November 11th about William Nylander, quote, he's got to be a driver for us. Nylander has 22 points in 21 games, second on the team behind Matthews. The case against Hiller is that the 5-on-5 numbers haven't moved in weeks. 22nd in shot share, 27th in save percentage, and 12 games chasing from behind. The case for him is that the best power play in the division and a penalty kill in the top seven are being coached, and a coach doesn't make the goalie stop the puck. Rob Papetti's take is that he doesn't put much of the blame on Hiller because the roster is pretty weak without Marchenko. The record by period shows how little room this team gives itself. The Toronto is 3-8 when trailing after the first period and 1-9 when trailing after the second. When the Leafs lead after two periods, they are 6-0-1-1, so the team can close a game, it just never gets the lead. So do I fire Jim Hiller? No, I think it's way too early to make this decision right now, but the numbers are definitely scary and things to keep your eye on going forward, because if this doesn't change, then we might have to revisit that. Because obviously right now the power play and penalty kill have been great under Jim Hiller and they've been saving the Leafs in some games. But the 5-on-5 play is definitely what is very scary right now because the Leafs are kind of relying on the man advantage to score their goals. They need to be better 5-on-5 and score more goals that way. And I think maybe getting Marchenko back in the lineup whenever that happens will help that out. And of course, having the 27th worst 5-on-5 save percentage isn't great, and that's not really something the coach can fix. The goalie has to go out there and do a job. And obviously, they have trailed 12 games in this season, so they're going to have to start coming back if that's going to be a trend. And obviously, they've got a big couple of games coming up against Edmonton, Chicago, LA, Columbus, and the Islanders, so if nothing changes during this, this slide could look pretty bad. Chayka was asked on October 26th if he was open to another blockbuster, and he said, quote, yeah. What can they pay with? Colorado's 2027 first round pick, Winnipeg's 2027 second, and their own firsts in 28, 29, and 2030. Their own 2027 first is owed to Philadelphia, so that one is gone. The stars are locked in. Matthews makes $13.25 million with a no-movement clause through 27-28, and Nylander makes $11.5 million with a no-trade clause through 20-31-32. Deon Radish at $8.5 million has a no-movement clause through 20-33-34, and Riley makes $7.5 million through 29-30. Those five contracts with Bobrovsky add up to $47.75 million in 26-27, and almost none of it can move. So the trade is picks and depth, not the big names. So what the trade has to fix is its 5-on-5 defense and goaltending. So what we're looking for for our quote-unquote blockbuster trade is a top-pairing defenseman or a goaltender that can steal a game. And obviously the Leafs have to do this with a first round pick from Colorado and Winnipeg's second round pick and some prospects because they can't move out any of their big guns. And obviously there is some risk involved in here because if you go out and trade for a defenseman, that does not fix the goaltending situation and if the goaltending situation continues to be bad, maybe they would rather go out and get a goaltender instead. And of course they're on a deadline here because every point you drop in this tough Atlantic division is going to see you out of the playoff picture and the Leafs really need to turn it around. It helps to look at who's ahead of them because nobody in the division is running away with it. Tampa Bay leads with 28 points and scores 3.89 goals a game, the best offense in in the Atlantic, but its penalty kill is 71.7%. Montreal also has 28 points with the worst power play in the division at 13.8% and Ottawa has 26 with a power play of 11.8%. That means Toronto's special teams are better than the teams ahead of them and they're still winning anyway. Boston is the one built like a contender. 2.42 goals against the game, the best mark in the division by more than half a goal. Florida has 24 points and the second best penalty kill in the NHL, 86.2%, and Buffalo has 20 points and allows 3.53 goals a game, the only team in the division worse than Toronto. Detroit is last with 17 points because it scores 2.65 goals a game, the fewest in the division. The Leafs' problem is the same as Buffalo's, the defense, and that's the easiest thing to fix in this division. If Toronto goes from 3.52 goals against to 3.0, where Montreal, Ottawa, and Florida sit, the standings look completely different. And it isn't over yet, Leafs fans. I know it looks probably bleak right now, but they still have a lot of hockey left to play this season, and they're only nine points behind who sits in third place. It is nine points back of Boston, and that's the number that matters, because if you have four or five good weeks, you're right back in contention. Buffalo is 6 with 20 points, Detroit is last with 17, and the middle of the division is bunched. That is why every point matters, because if the Leafs win and the competitors start losing, they start climbing the leaderboard. The talent is real, the power play is 7th, and the penalty kill is 7th, and Matthew leads the team with 29 points. The shooting is fine too, 9.8% at 5 on 5, 13th in the league. So the offense has to be the steady part. Nylander is one point from passing George Armstrong for seventh in franchise points, and Riley is three from passing Bob Pulford for twelfth. Anthony Stolarz is 50 saves from passing Jeff Reifs for 24th in franchise history, which is about two games. The next five games are Edmonton on November 14th, Chicago on November 17th, Los Angeles on November 19th, Columbus on November 21st, and the Islanders on November 23rd, and none of them are interdivisional games. A 4-1 week could get the Toronto Maple Leafs back to 26 points and get them right back in the conversation. A fix at 5-on-5, a goalie who steadies, and a trade if the Leafs need one is exactly how they will get back in it this year. So where do you stand? Do you think the Leafs should fire Jim Hiller this early, or do you think they should ride it out? Let me know down below in the comments.