Houston Still Has A Chance...

Last November, the Houston Texans fell 18-15 at home against the Denver Broncos and fell to 3-5 on the season. They didn't lose another regular season game all year. They won their last 9 in a row and finished 12-5. And they went into Pittsburgh in January and won a playoff game 30-6. And yesterday, this year's Texans went into Los Angeles and beat the Chargers 44-22. That win puts them right back to where they were a year ago, 3-5. But this time, nobody is betting on a comeback. Before Sunday's game, DraftKings had the Texans at minus 240 to miss the playoffs. Before Sunday's game, the Texans were minus 240 to miss the playoffs. At that price, they roughly have a 1-3 shot to get in. And Jacksonville is already 2-6 and at the top of the division. So is this the same team who pulled it off last year? Or is this just another 3-5 team that's just 3-5? Houston woke up this morning to being 11th in the AFC. And closer than 3-5 makes it sound. The 7th final playoff spot belongs to New England right now, and Cleveland is tied right behind them. That's a 1.5 game gap with 9 games left to play, with only 3 teams sitting between Houston and that line. Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Baltimore. Las Vegas and Baltimore are both 4 and 5, half a game ahead. Houston plays Cleveland and Baltimore over the course of the next 3 weeks, so it doesn't need help to pass them. It just needs the win. Last night's game against the Chargers was their first since coming back off the bye. And it showed that they can still win. C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns, with four different receivers catching a touchdown pass. Keishawn Booty led everybody on the team with 125 yards on just four catches, and he got his first touchdown of the season. Houston put up 44 points and 485 yards, the kind of day this offense hasn't strung together all season long. And the defense sacked the Chargers eight times, which Aaron Wilson report ties the franchise record for the most in a single game. And the cherry on top, Los Angeles went 5 for 17 on 3rd down. Yes, the Chargers haven't won a game all season, and I know, a good supposed playoff team is supposed to do that against them. But just for one Sunday, the Houston Texans look like the old Houston Texans from last season. One playoff model had the Texans at 24% last week, when they were 2-5. After that, A-Z Sports has them at a 34% chance. That's 10 points for just one win, and it means that the model sees them missing 2 out Two out of three times. A model only has the record for this season, though. History, however, has a different record for teams that are 3-5. Since 1999, 156 NFL teams have been 3-5 after 8 games. Only 18 of them made the playoffs. That's about 12%. Most of them were chasing 6 playoff spots in their conference, not 7. Since the league added the 7th seed back in 2020, 7 of those 35 teams then started 3-5 and got in. That's 1-5. And 2023 alone had 3 of them. The Rams, the Packers, and the Bucs. Four of those seven teams went on to win at least one playoff game as well. The 2021 49ers started off 3-5 and played in the NFC title game that season. The last team on that list is the 2025 Houston Texans. Last year's run started at home on a 36-29 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The same Jacksonville Jaguars that the Houston Texans already beat earlier this year. Because back in October, Houston went in Jacksonville's home away from home in London and beat Jacksonville. 34-31. So nobody in that locker room needs to be told that it's possible. They did it just 12 months ago. What they need is a number to chase. And right now, that number is 10. In each of the last three seasons, the lowest win total of any AFC playoff team was 10. Nine wins kept the AFC team home four years in a row, from 2021 to 2024. Back in 2022, Pittsburgh went 9-8 and still watched the playoffs from home. From 3-5, Getting to 10 wins means going 7-2 the rest of the season. Through 8 games, they've won 3. Now they need to fix that and win 7 out of the next 9. On the record, that sounds like a different team. But, according to their games, they seem like the ones to do it. The Texans started off the season 0-4. In those 4 games, they scored roughly 21 points a game and gave up roughly 27 a game. Since then, they've gone 3-1, scoring 31 points a game and only giving up roughly 21. And four out of their five losses came by six points or fewer. If we look at the four losses, we see Buffalo was by five, Indianapolis by two, Dallas was by four. And before the bye week, they went against the Giants and lost by six points in overtime. But I'm sure you guys all know the Giants won hurt the most at home in overtime with Cam Scadaboo, who didn't have a carry the week before, have 124 yards. But the only win that really got away from Houston was that one to Cincinnati, where they lost 20 to six. Flip two of those close ones, and Houston is 5-3, ahead of New England at 5-4. That's why Houston's point differential looks nothing like a 3-5 team. They're plus 17. New England, the team holding the 7th seed right now, is just plus 4. Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Baltimore are all below them, with Cleveland having a minus 35, Las Vegas having a minus 30, and Baltimore having a minus 47. Every team between Houston and that 7th seed have been outscored this season, while Houston has not. Put that next to the seven teams that climbed out of the 3-5 hole since 2020. At that point of the season, the 2021 49ers were minus 17, and the 2023 Rams were minus 9. Only one of those seven teams had a better point difference after eight games than this year's Texans. And it was last year's Texans, at plus 47. So the closest match to this year's team's profile is our same team, just from last year. And a lot of that runs through our quarterback, CJ Stroud. In his first three games, Stroud threw just one touchdown pass on average a game. In his last five, that's up to 2.6 a game. He's averaging 281 passing yards a game with just two interceptions all season long. On the other side, Will Anderson Jr. already has 9.5 sacks through eight games, and he leads the NFL in sacks. That's more than Danielle Hunter and Sheldon Rankins combined, who each have four. Over a full 17 games, that's on a pace of about 20 sacks. The teams ahead of Houston in the AFC, Don't have that kind of proof. And they've played more games too. New England, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Baltimore have each played nine games. While Houston still sits one game behind at eight. That's a game in the hand of every team between the Texans and the seventh seed. Look at the loss column. And most of the gaps slowly start going away. Houston is one game behind New England and Cleveland. And level with Las Vegas and Baltimore. So three of those four teams have to get through each other over the course of the next few weeks. Cleveland hosts Las Vegas two weeks after it plays Houston, and Cleveland and Baltimore still meet up later this season. Every one of those games hands somebody a loss ahead of Houston. Cleveland also plays Cincinnati twice, and Baltimore plays Pittsburgh twice, with both of those teams being 6-2. And Las Vegas still has to play Denver twice, the AFC's only team with 7 wins, and it finishes the season playing against Kansas City. The race in front of Houston is going to thin itself out. Houston just needs to win its own games. The nine teams left on the schedule have a combined record of 34-42, plus a tie. And five of them are under .500 right now. Indianapolis, Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, and our division rivals in the Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis is now 2-7, and it's still the same team that beat the Houston Texans by two back in September. The season ends at home against Tennessee, a 1-7 team that Houston already put a whooping on 26-3. Five of the nine games are on the road, including Pittsburgh in December and Green Bay in January, with Pittsburgh and Green Bay having a combined record of 12-5. Christmas Eve is a road game as well, in Philadelphia, but the Eagles are 2-7 and they don't have Jalen Hurts. New England, the team holding up the spot, has it worse. Its last eight opponents are a combined 34-30. That includes teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Denver, three of the top AFC seeds right now in the top six. Of the five teams fighting for the last spot, Houston has easily the easiest schedule left. The stretch that decides all of this starts Sunday. They have three games in 15 days. First, Cleveland on the road, a team sitting 1.5 games ahead of them. Four days later, Indianapolis comes to Houston on a Thursday night, with only three days of rest in between the Cleveland game. Then Baltimore, at home on November 29th, a team half a game ahead of them. Be Cleveland and Baltimore, and Houston wins the head-to-head with both of them if they end with the same record at the end of the season. Lose both, and a 10-win season means you have to win every single game left on your schedule. And if you want the Houston Texans playoff race broken down for you every single day, make sure you hit that subscribe button. We are currently at 3,300 subscribers, and I would love you here for the whole run. There's a longer path that opens up too, and it runs through the division. Jacksonville is up three games in the AFC South. The Jaguars come into Houston on December 20th, and a sweep gives the Houston's a tiebreaker, just in case the teams finish with the same record. Jacksonville is also plus 108. Though, the point differential is in the AFC, so nobody should count it on falling apart. The wild card is the railroad, and it runs through Cleveland and Baltimore. My call? They get in. Either the 7th seed, or better, but I'm banking on the 7th seed. The reason why? Plus 17. 0-4, but just in games that they fell just short by 6 points. That plus the 3-1 recently? I'm going to take the Houston Texans to get in. That plus CJ Stroud averaging 2.6 touchdown passes in his last 5 games. And only having two interceptions across the whole season to show for it. The doubt is Houston having five road games. That includes teams like the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both two teams that have proved that they are playoff caliber. But it starts this Sunday against Cleveland. If Houston wins, then that 7-2 record in the last nine looks very doable. Last season, this team needed nine straight wins to make it into the playoffs. This season, they just need seven out of their next nine. And it starts this Sunday against Cleveland. If Houston does it again, nobody's going to be calling this a fluke. So let me know in the comments, Are the Texans making the playoffs, yes or no? Thank you guys so much for watching, and have a blessed day.