This Is Huge For The Texans...

Last Sunday in Los Angeles, Woody Marks ran for 70 yards, and it was his best game of the season, and the Texans won 44-22. Three days later at practice, his knee started bothering him, and he wasn't even able to finish practice. And yesterday, he didn't practice at all. And the other half of this backfield, David Montgomery, hasn't been on the field since October 11th, when he hurt his groin against Tennessee. And as of today, they're both still listed as questionable for the game this Sunday against Cleveland. That same day, Houston released running back Dare Ogunbowale. Any other week, that's a depth problem that you can manage. The Browns gave up 200 rushing yards in Pittsburgh. And last week, they gave up 160 more in New Orleans. They lost both of those games. And it's the worst that the Browns defense has ever looked against the run this season. The question is whether or not Houston has the healthy running back room this Sunday to be able to do the same thing. Houston at 3-5. Cleveland at 5-4. And whoever loses this game walks away with a problem that it cannot fix before next week. But, we did get some really good injury report news today from our good friend Aaron Wilson. Wilson reported that Woody Marks was at practice today, and he's good to go against the Browns this Sunday. That was a quick turn, because about an hour and a half earlier, Wilson had him being held out for now, and said he was on a wait and see type of deal for Sunday. The official tag is still questionable, and as we know, nothing is official until the game actually starts. So Woody Marks is okay, but David Montgomery is the bigger question. He practiced Thursday and Friday. Both of those were his first two practices back since he got hurt against Tennessee. D'Amico Ryan says he's making progress, but he won't commit to a timeline on when Montgomery is coming back. Offensive coordinator Nick Calipari put it like this. Getting them all ready, giving them all opportunities, and monitoring their reps. Monitoring their reps is what a coach says about a back who has played 5 games and missed 3, when he doesn't know yet who's going to take the 15 carries this Sunday. So, hypothetically speaking, Woody Marks doesn't play this Sunday, and David Montgomery doesn't end up playing, just like we all think he might not. Who ends up getting the lead touches this Sunday? Behind them on the depth chart is Emery DiMercato. He only has 31 rushing yards all season. And 15 of those came with Dallas, before he played for Houston earlier this year. In LA, he had 6 carries for 16 yards. The running back that we just released was our safety net, and now he's gone. Released as Houston has now added another man. And the offensive line in front of them took a hit as well. And left guard, Kalen Rutledge, is unlikely to play this Sunday with the stinger. Which means that Fabichino Waiwu is in line for his first NFL start. A banged up rookie guard, and a banged up running back core. This going along with the running back room that wasn't even doing all too much whenever it was healthy, because Houston's only ran for 87.1 yards a game. That ranks 29th in the NFL. At 3.6 yards a carry, only two teams rank worse. David Montgomery was the veteran who was supposed to fix that, but in his first five games, he averaged just 2.7 yards a carry, and his best day was in the season opener, where he had over 20 carries and did score three touchdowns. Houston has gone 1-4 in the games that he's played, and 2-1 since he got hurt. And it's not all on him. The rest of the offense lost some games as well. But it hasn't really struggled without him being on the field. Since Woody Marks has taken over as the lead RB1, he's been a different running back than we're used to seeing. Of course, as the backup running back in his first three games, he only averaged about 21 rushing yards. Over his last five, he's averaging 55.2. Starting off with a game that Montgomery got hurt in, Woody Marks has carried it at least 15 times every single week since. And he's gotten over 56 yards in every single one of them. Not anything too crazy, but again, pretty serviceable. And that's how he has 341 rushing yards on the season so far. And he has the younger pair of legs. He's only in his second year in the NFL, and last year as a rookie, he ran for over 700 yards. And the third name on that list is our quarterback. Because CJ Stroud has 100 rushing yards on the season, only 38 behind David Montgomery, the guy who was supposed to fix this running back room. That's why Woody Marks' knee injury is a little bit more important than David Montgomery's groin injury. Here's the number that has decided Houston's season so far. When the Texans run for over 100 yards, they're 2-1 on the season. And when they don't, they're 1-4. They've only hit 100 rushing yards in three out of their eight games this season. And the worst day was 60 yards, and it came in a loss against Cincinnati. And even in the best day of the season, With 124 rushing yards against Buffalo in the season opener, they still lost by five. C.J. Stroud can still win games without the run, however. In the last game, he had 384 passing yards in a win over L.A. But a pass-first offense needs just one thing out of its running back room, and that's to slow down this pass rush. Because Cleveland's pass rush is the best thing about their team. The Browns have 26 sacks on the season. That's tied for the fourth most in the NFL. Nick Kaylee called them one of the fastest defenses in the NFL this week. Inside, Mason Graham has four sacks. And Malik Collins has 3.5. And Kaylee's words for them was disruptive. Collins is questionable this week, and if he plays, he's lined up near a rookie guard making his first start. Every handoff that Houston can make work is another handoff where those two can't just pin their ears and chase C.J. Stroud for the whole game. Over the first six games, the Cleveland Browns never gave up more than 130 rushing yards. Then at Tennessee, they ran for 141. Pittsburgh for 200. And then New Orleans for 160. Jalen Warren had 143 of those in Pittsburgh on just 17 carries. Pittsburgh did it with two backs sharing the load. Rico Dowell added 15 yards on just 15 carries right next to him. That's the kind of plan that Houston would love to run with Montgomery and Woody Marks, if they're both healthy. In New Orleans, Odarik SDemon led the Saints with 72 rushing yards, and they won by a single point. And the Browns know it too. Linebacker Carson Schwesinger spent part of the week talking about fixing the run. And for the season, Cleveland's allowed 4.7 yards a carry, more than a full yard above what Houston gets on its own run. On the road, Houston's only ran for 100 yards twice, against Jacksonville and LA. And they won both of those games. But there is one catch. At home this season, Cleveland is 3-0, and they've won every single game by three points. In those games, they held Pittsburgh to 92 rushing yards and Baltimore to just 87. But a month later, in their own stadium, Pittsburgh ran for over 200 rushing yards. So Cleveland's defense is different at home. And at a three-point game, that's the kind of game where the run game needs to be working the most, when you need a quick first down to end the game. And if you're following the Houston Texans with us every single day, make sure you press that subscribe button. We're currently at 3,400 subscribers, and I appreciate each and every one of you. But let's talk about what a loss costs Houston now. Houston is 3-5 on the season, and they're currently 11th in the AFC. The last playoff spot belongs to New England at 5-4, and Cleveland is right behind them, also at 5-4. That puts the Texans 1.5 games out of the playoff spot, and they're playing a team that sits just ahead of them. Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 6-2. So the division is a long way away, but the wild card is still a real way in. Win this game, and Houston's only half a game behind the Browns. With the head-to-head win in their pocket. Lose, and they're 3-6. 2.5 games behind Cleveland, with the tiebreaker gone. And the strange part about this season is where they've won. Because the Texans are 0-4 at their own home, but 3-1 on the road. A road game is the one place where this team actually looks like itself. And ESPN's FPI still believes in them, with a 46% chance to make the playoffs. But in order to make the playoffs, Houston has to start winning games now. And thankfully, they're playing a team that just came off of two straight losses. And a loss leaves no time to recover. The Colts come into Houston on Thursday night, just four days after this Sunday's game. Indianapolis is 2-7 on the season, and they've lost five in a row. After that, Baltimore comes to Houston on November 29th, and the Ravens have lost four straight. Win Sunday and the next two games, and you're sitting at 6-5 on the season. A real chance at being able to make it to the playoffs. But just a four-day turnaround from this Sunday to this upcoming Thursday is not enough time for a sore knee or a groin injury to fully heal. And the run defense has problems of its own. The Giants ran for over 188 yards in Houston three weeks ago, and even in a 22-point win last week. LA still ran for 138 rushing yards, and Cleveland's side of this is just as tight. The Browns start off the season 5-2, but they've lost the past two straight, 27-6 against Pittsburgh, and 23-22 in New Orleans. In Pittsburgh, they ran for 34 yards as a team, and when their own run game is stalling, there isn't much else to work with. Lose Sunday, and they're officially going to lose three straight. And they also have two weeks to sit on it, because after this week against Houston, they enter their bye week. Las Vegas and Baltimore are both 4-5. So a Browns loss lets either one pull level with a win before Cleveland plays again. ESPN's FPI gives the Browns an 11.6 chance to make the playoffs, the lowest of any AFC team with a winning record. A big reason is the offense. Cleveland runs for 97 rushing yards a game. That's 25th in the NFL, and still above Houston. Kinshawn Jenkins leads the team with 385 rushing yards, and he had 96 of the Browns' 183 in Tennessee, their best day on the ground all year long. And Deshaun Watson is set to start after missing last week with a concussion. So Cleveland has its own injury wrinkle with the key spot. Houston is 4.5 favorites, which makes the Browns underdogs in a building that they haven't even lost at all year long. They've covered their spread six out of their nine games, and the Texans have only covered it three out of eight. And both of these teams need a win this Sunday more than just the standings make it look. It comes down to three numbers. Woody marks 55 rushing yards a game over his last five. A Browns team that has lost two straight In a Texans run game that's only averaging 87 rushing yards a game, my call, Houston is going to win this game if the run game shows up early in this game, but it has to show up early and often to establish itself. The reason why? Because although Houston's run defense has not been that good elsewhere, at home it is still very good. And the numbers prove it. They're 2-1 when they rush for over 100 rushing yards, and they're 1-4 whenever they get under 100 rushing yards in a game. It's pretty simple for Houston. The doubt? They're 3-0 at home. They keep on winning these close games at home. Houston has only three wins on the season, and Houston is going to start a rookie guard against a very good defensive line. We need to wait and see if David Montgomery is going to play this Sunday, because if he is, that can definitely help the running back room establish itself very early. I've got Houston winning on the road again, and I also have Woody Marks getting over 70 rushing yards, which is so far his season high. But what do you guys think? Who wins this game on Sunday? Woody Marks on the ground, CJ Stroud through the air? Let me know in the comments. And I'll see you guys after the game.