James Kaufman reports on an escalating space weather event as of April 15, 2025. Earth is currently experiencing a G1 geomagnetic storm, with a G3 storm predicted for April 16. This activity is attributed to a combination of Earth-directed solar flares from April 10 and multiple filament eruptions on April 13 and 14, potentially creating a \"cannibal CME\" effect.
James Kaufman, World News Report today,
April 15th, 2025.
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All right, ladies and gentlemen, we have a possible cannibal CME,
maybe 1-2, maybe a 1-2-3 punch forming here.
You're looking at a G3 geomagnetic storm watch.
I believe we're in a G2 geomagnetic storm currently.
Now, we've only seen a G1 on the KP index because,
of course, that's a lagging indicator.
Here we have a G3 for tomorrow, the 16th,
which literally starts in three or four hours.
And they say that this was caused by coronal mass ejections
that left the sun on the 13th of April.
Well, if you all recall,
we had 10 at least solar flares that were Earth-directed.
On the 10th of April, and if one
of them didn't actually become a CME that was Earth-bound
with an Earth component, well, it would be astonishing.
Meanwhile, we had the filament eruption on the 13th,
followed by another large filament
eruption on the 14th,
so I believe we have lots of things at play here, and that's the
reason we're getting hit a day before they thought that we would.
It's the actual solar flares and CMEs from the 10th,
which I will show you.
It's the two filament eruptions that I showed you in a movie yesterday.
All right, taking a look at our KP indexes.
This really tells us what we're
experiencing here on the ground on Earth.
And we're under a geomagnetic storm currently,
but it's just a G1, KP5 here.
I would expect the next print to be a G2, KP6.
But I've known to be wrong, for sure.
None of the other indexes are showing much of anything.
Wow.
Now, ladies and gentlemen, here is the 13th,
where we had a large filament eruption,
very large filament eruption,
and also 10 Earth-facing M-flares,
the largest being a fairly strong flare,
an M, maybe 3-something.
I know we had a much stronger one today that took it out.
So we had some M flares that were all earth facing,
we also had a filament eruption here,
and yesterday we had a stronger M flare and another filament eruption here.
So what is going to happen there? All of this activity you see here,
being the solar flares and CMEs
and the filament eruptions that turn in coronal mass ejections,
are going to be balled up and it could be a rough couple of days.
I personally am hurting.
Jumping over to Space Weather Live.
This is just coming from that departing sunspot, 4055.
But things should be around the limb by now.
They picked up an M4.28.
It must have been an X flare.
It's a delta-class sunspot.
You can tell by the red color.
Currently only a 15% chance
of an X-class solar flare, 80% chance.
of an M-class flare and that ship has sailed.
Today we have the M4.28. Shows up here
it peaked about 9.34 UTC time.
So that's going to be 2.30 in the morning other side of the planet
for us. Over to the HMI Intensigram.
There she goes 4055.
Currently we have six. If you count
4055, I just think it's gone.
We have five earth-facing sunspot groups.
We have another one that should be named fairly soon.
Proceed.
4062 is looking ugly, may I say personally.
All right, these are two of the Halo CMEs.
They're actually going to show us.
They said these were created by those huge filament eruptions.
You can see both of them are on the 13th here, according to this.
So this is...
Pretty impressive.
This is just going to be one of them or two.
Hard to tell.
But this is our culprit, or at least one of them.
And, ladies and gentlemen, there she blows.
Nothing too complex.
As I said, this is about the most complex thing we have to worry about.
A coronal hole trying to form here.
Nothing much to be said.
This is GOES solar ultraviolet 165 angstroms.
And here's a close-up of the actual impact.
It was a solid impact, we'll say that,
and we'll translate that over.
This comes from Discover.
We're going to show you how easy it can be to nail these things.
All right, over to real-time solar wind.
Now, I know this looks like it just happened a few hours ago,
but these are several hours here.
This was last night.
Just about wiping me out.
We had winds jump from 386.
It's a quick jump.
Up over 514, and they're still going up currently.
No, we do have a reading over 600, believe it or not, which is one.
So solar winds are rising.
Like I said, this could be a cannibal CME situation.
Look at the plasma jump up from four
and go up to areas like 49 here.
Unbelievable.
Drop off like nothing was there.
That wasn't a very large CME.
Would it last about an hour and 10 minutes?
Was there something pushing on it?
Very weird.
But it looks like it's headed back up.
Not even the space weather levels of 10 centimeters cubed yet.
Our shields have gone down just when we needed them to.
Temperature is going up.
And we talked about solar winds.
All right, over to our GOES electron flux.
You know, I've never seen us in an electron storm this long.
It must be that they've turned, well, turned back on.
I don't know, but we're in an electron storm that won't go away.
You have to go search for this one, but it's worth it.
It's the longest one I ever remember.
Three days, four days is probably the longest prior to this.
We've had an electrical storm every single day.
Space weather alert.
I mean, we're getting hit by everything all seven days.
All right.
We can see that impact right here again.
Plasma does not shoot up.
We saw it at 69, was it, and 43.
I don't see anything like that on ACE
which is another satellite that we have up there.
I see that our shields went down and we're in trouble here
and so solar winds are going up and look like
they have definitely made it to 500 maybe
headed up further looks like they've made it up
to 600, they're headed up along with temperature
pretty elevated there over
to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center well
See how they did.
Their plasma wasn't high enough,
but I think they did pretty good on the timing.
Personally, this is probably
the best I've ever seen them do on a prediction.
This is out of their new Space Weather Prediction Center.
I believe it's in Huntsville, Alabama,
although it might be in Boulder at their new building.
So they got the solar wind right, too.
I already checked it.
Sorry I didn't mention it.
Went up over 550.
It's probably going to go up over 650.
So they could have.
Short of that, they definitely shorted the plasma
as we saw some much higher readings there.
Over to our D-region absorption prediction center.
Everyone's getting their healthy x-rays for the day, right?
X-rays are so healthy for the human cell.
So, sun is passing over us.
We did have some M-class solar flares that were impressive.
Nothing that was Earth-directed.
Those were probably much stronger flares
if they were out of our friend that's around
the limb already.
There was one of those strong M flares.
They always seem to happen right over us, right?
Now, some of NOAA is predicting that it's going to get much,
much worse and that this
is just the beginning.
And some believe that this was the impact that we're waiting for.
Depends on whose camp you're in.
I believe we're going to have a couple
more impacts, maybe three or four more.
And we'll see how it goes.
They were not expecting, well,
they had pretty good timing there, I will say.
All right, this is the sunspot I've been worried about.
It's negative over positive,
and one could argue it was in, well, it's on the equator.
You'll never see them on the equator either.
Everything else looks pretty gentle, pretty gentle.
This is SDO HMI magnetogram.
Over to SOHO 284 angstroms,
we can see that this sunspot here is getting going.
It looks like it's going to be probably a delta.
Delta sunspot by the time it gets here.
Our worries are what's going to happen over
the next 12 to 20 hours here
with these multiple, perhaps, coronal mass ejections inbound.
SOHO 284 angstroms, if I didn't say so.
it was taken at 7:06 this morning Central Time.
So we are in a, at least, G1 geomagnetic storm.
We should be going into, I guess, a G3 geomagnetic storm.
We'll see what happens.
We could or could not be in a cannibal CME right now.
We'll also see and see what happens.
Obviously, the coast has been cleared no matter what.
It says Earth here.
The moon is directly behind us where it shouldn't.
I'll tell you if it's behind us or in front of us.
We always get more activity than if it's not.
You can see where Saturn, Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter, Mars are here.
Everything's obviously only the scales to Mars.
These are, planets are much further out.
You'll see the yellow lines here,
which mean not to scale after that.
All right, and there you have it, folks,
for April 15th, 2025.
Geomagnetic storm, more coming,
and we've got a nasty sunspot
about to be directly Earth-facing.
God bless.
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