James Coughlin, World News Report today.
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
we have been in a solar storm and solar disturbance
ever since we thought we were entering one yesterday.
You watched yesterday's solar update.
And while we've only had six hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm,
And six more hours of a geomagnetic disturbance.
We do have winds over 700 kilometers per second,
but our shields have been very steady.
This is according to the estimated planetary index, KP index,
a measurement of the solar winds and plasma hitting Earth
at, well, these four locations here.
Now, the college index shows a lot more activity,
but it's elevated, i.e., up on a mountain,
and some of the other indexes show less activity,
actually, like the Fredericksburg and Boulder
index.
Now, in the last three hours,
we did jump back into a geomagnetic disturbance, as you
saw, and this is still having
to do with that huge coronal hole that was so elongated that
it might last for three days.
I don't believe that we've been hit by any coronal mass ejections yet
because our plasma is still reasonable.
We've had three more M flares today.
We have a 20% chance of having an X-class solar flare,
which is a very high percentage chance.
They're really worried that we might have one today or tomorrow.
We will see if that does occur.
You can see the three flares here.
Two, three, ums, uh.
Hey, I think it's a 1.8, and the rest
of them just barely made the M-class, and we have
several large C-flares, too.
There's a strong C-flare there,
it's a plus AO C-flare, there's another really strong
C-flare there, almost an M-flare,
and so we've had some strong C-flares and three M-class
solar flares.
All right, we've been so busy today,
I can't even show you all the activity.
Here's an M1.8, I think that's the biggest flare in the last 24 hours.
It was at 7.46 UTC time,
about 1.46 last night, I guess.
Here is an M1.1, and they're not actually showing the latest M flare,
just hasn't been assigned.
It's going to be assigned to the same sunspot group.
4566. And we had a 20% chance of having an X-class solar flare.
It's been lowered in the last hour
to a 15% chance. A 60% chance of having an M flare.
We had three of those. We've had lots of
C flares. And look, back to a B baseline here.
Unbelievable. That's the large M1.8 is what
That's what they're calling it down here.
And the 72-hour max is at M1.99.
All right, over to GOES 19 Solar Ultraviolet Imager, 195 angstroms.
You can see that activity there, the first M-Flare,
the strongest M-Flare of the day.
And we'll move along to the second M-Flare,
which should happen right about there it is right now.
And, well, there's continuous flaring.
There's the third M-Flare.
And, well, that sums it up for the day.
They don't look very, well, ferocious.
Take a look over
on LASCO and see if they created any visible chromospheric ejections.
And, yes, we see plasma leaving from all areas.
So, I don't know if that's backside or not.
I don't know why it's going straight up like that.
Besides that plasma moving up like that,
there's not a whole lot of plasma being emitted from those M-flares.
And I don't know what would cause it to go straight up like that.
I don't think there's any missing time.
That was an impact on LASCO there.
Right there.
Impact on LASCO right there.
So, I don't know if any large coronal mass ejections were created.
It's not as, well, obvious as yesterday's.
Our total electron count has really risen here
and bring it back and see we had no electrons
and that moved up to a very high level
here just about an hour ago. So there is
a lot of radiation across the U.S. mostly
in the central here it looks like.
All right let's take a look at some of the flares.
There's your 1544.
M-class flare, we see one more M-class flare here,
which is covering parts of South America,
and then we should see a C-flare right about here
that will look close to an M-flare, that's
a C-flare over Hawaiian Islands,
and that's going to be it for the day.
We don't get to see the strongest,
most powerful one that happened earlier this morning, but
uh
1:50, and that's in the middle of the night, of course.
All right, they're talking about how large this thing has grown.
Now, they have it down to a 15% chance of X-class solar flare.
It was up at a 20.
Total of five sunspots.
Some more coming around the limb, but five sunspots.
One delta and four simple sunspots.
That same sunspot is just peppering us.
Here's a little bit different view of HMI,
and you can see that we have some more areas
that are probably going to have to be named here soon,
but 4566 is the only thing that
sticks out.
They say it's doubled in size in the last 24 hours.
That's what NOAA says.
I don't know if visually it looks that way.
This is the latest from STO AIA,
and this shows us that coronal hole is still earth-facing,
basically, but it is moving along.
This is the sunspot that they're worried about right here,
4566, and these are some dangerous looking sunspots.
They look like they will be coming
around the limb. Although these sunspots look very complex to me,
they say they're simple.
So let's go to the sample.
Real-time solar winds at 716 kilometers per second.
Stronger than yesterday.
They went up to over 760 here.
Let's see what we can find.
I don't know if we can grab the top or not.
Are they lettuce?
I don't think they're lettuce.
752.
752.
So just over 750.
And so they're more powerful than yesterday.
We'll have to see what the shields look like.
Expect us to be back in a G1 geomagnetic storm
when the next KP index drops.
And the Jet Propulsion Laboratory missed another rock that flew by.
They reported it after it flew by here,
flew by earlier today, and then they reported it.
This was 2026 VR5.
Not a real large rock, only 20-25 feet in diameter.
Although they're not very certain about it.
They have a high condition code on it.
And it was again reported after it flew by.
Taking a quick look at SDO HMI magnetogram.
This is the only thing that sticks out right there.
Just below the equator there.
It does look like it's black over white.
Although it's questionable.
Still delta class sunspot.
The most complex sunspot that we know about.
Let's see some more sunspots that look complex.
Just barely making it around that incoming limb there.
There will be some more activity.
You can see them a lot better on SOHO at 284 angstroms.
They're just as active as what's going on here.
This was taken this morning at 7.06 central time.
You can see what we're dealing with.
All right, to the satellites.
Well, it looks like our shields are trying
to stay up above the dotted line
most all of the day.
They did take a dip just a second ago.
Temperature's elevated, as we can see here.
Plasma went up for a few minutes above 10 centimeters cubed.
Don't know what was going on here.
That could have been a glancing blow
from that stronger CME that happened four days ago.
It just doesn't look like it would be.
We'll see what Solar 1 has to say about that.
And I can see that.
Solar wind speeds look like they've gone up
as high as maybe 800 kilometers per second,
which is a good, good, fast solar wind.
Obviously, it was a huge coronal hole.
Also, the orientation of our shields are basically north all day long,
which has really helped us stay out
of a geomagnetic storm all day long.
And let me correct myself, because from 0-100,
At 7 p.m. last night to 10 p.m.,
we were in a geomagnetic storm, G1 KP5 right here.
You can see that's because our shields went down up here,
although they were still oriented north.
They went down for quite some time,
which allowed this KP index to reach a 5.
I don't see uh let's see
if plasma plasma goes nowhere near 10 centimeters cubed all day long
here just what I thought this is all solar winds it must have
been a mess up on ACE the older
satellite this is some very strong winds here
let's see if we get a high point looks like that
there's 781 this looks like it's even higher
this goes over 800 kilometers
per second but see we're still even
though our shields are down there we still didn't get but a
4.0 which is a geomagnetic disturbance here
so our shields are oriented north almost all day long
besides a few moments here and there and they did come down
and they got hit with this really fast
solar wind here uh
but that was for a very short time, it did bring us to a KP4
I would assume the next window that drops may be a geomagnetic storm.
I don't know, though.
Looking at this, it looks like temperatures
are falling off quite a bit.
over a hundred kilometers per second.
We only made a KP4
with 800 plus kilometers per second winds.
And our shields were actually down during that time,
probably due to the winds themselves.
But although they were northerly oriented,
The plasma's been, well, the highest all day,
under five centimeters cubed.
You can see up here in orange.
Temperature is elevated all day long,
although it looks like it might be cooling down as well.
It looks like we still have some coronal hole to deal with,
and I know we have some CMEs from yesterday that are inbound.
So as long as those shields stay up
and northerly oriented like they have been,
Well, it's a whole different story, isn't it,
compared to when they're down and southerly
oriented.
We're seeing really no solar winds or plasma hit the ground here.
And when they're down and oriented south,
just a small little C-flare can cause havoc
like a, well, KP7 or 8, G3 or G4, as we've seen.
Here is the moon.
This is the 8th. We have one more watch day after this.
We haven't had a lot of earthquakes.
I would expect them in the next two or three days.
Plates here on Earth are charged.
We have both Venus and Mercury in between us and the Sun.
The Moon's right here also.
The 9th is our last watch day tomorrow.
We have geomagnetic connections to three gas giants.
Uranus, Saturn, and Neptune, and one microplanet, Eris.
Way out there, in the middle of nowhere.
And that's it, folks.
Three M-flares, although none of them were real strong,
and I don't think I saw much of a coronal mass ejection created,
so I think we're in the clear for the day,
although the minor geomagnetic disturbances and minor storms.
That said, give us a thumbs up, please share if you will,
and God bless you all.