Balance of power to be decided in 2026 midterm elections

The overarching theme of this election is how it could impact the balance of power in Washington. All 435 House seats and 35 key Senate seats are on the ballot, with many polls predicting Democrats will win back the House. The Senate, however, is considered a toss-up. KTVU political reporter Greg Lee watching it all, and he's here, and certainly we've got some results coming in that are talking about that balance of power. This was a race that was just called by AP and other outlets just in the last 10 minutes or so. That's the incumbent Democrat John Ossoff will hold that Senate seat for Democrats in Georgia. That was one they weren't particularly eyeing. But a year ago, consider this, Ossoff was considered the most vulnerable senator in a swing district, a swing state, to lose his seat. And for them to call this race one. One hour after polls closed, that means they overperformed. Democrats did in some of those urban areas and those suburban areas that it didn't matter that that lead is insurmountable. We should also say that perhaps this is indicative for Dems is that we saw a massive early voter turnout. in Georgia, and that is the kind of enthusiasm that Dems will need if they want to do what they want to do. Well, that lead right now is nearly 30 percent, so that is something that we're going to keep an eye on for those Democratic incumbents, not just hold the seat, but how big that margin will be. That's right. And Democrats needed to hold that seat as they look at those other swing states, if they want to switch Senate seats and flip Senate seats, if they want any chance of flipping the Senate, because that truly is a toss-up at this point. That margin is something that is indicative of what we could see to come. We're watching the districts that were redistricted because will that achieve what an individual says, whether it was California or Florida, what. The party wanted it to. Yeah, let's let's talk about California for a second, because it is widely expected that Democrats will flip the House and gain control. The question is, how deep will that flip be? How much of a majority will that end up being? Will Democrats go into Republican districts in, say, Virginia or other places where Trump won and carried in 2020 and flip them for Democrats in the House? Remember, California redistricting, gerrymandered, whatever you want to call it, five House seats at this point. Based on polling, it is looking like a clean sweep right now. But the one district that is a true toss-up, California District 22, that is Valadao versus Villegas, and that has been a toss-up throughout. Valadao has been someone who has stumped Democrats for six terms. They cannot figure out how to beat him, even in a district that has a Democrat registration edge. Prop 50. Made that a big and even bigger edge for Democrats. And Villegas also represents a lot of things for the Democratic Party. He's a progressive that Democrats in the establishment didn't want to win the primary. They propped up one of his opponents who was a more moderate. So this race represents a lot of things on the California scale, on the national scale. Latino voters, which this district is predominantly. Have they soured on President Donald Trump? Because remember, this election, this midterm election, truly is a referendum on the party in power and the president. There is something to say about voter excitement. Have we been seeing more voter excitement among the Republican Party, the Democratic Party leading into this? Yeah, what we've been seeing in the exit polling today, Mike, and that's a very good question, is voter enthusiasm. And what we're very much seeing in this early polling and this enthusiasm is an edge for Democrats. And keep in mind, too, we expect shifts in voter patterns and the way that these ballots are counted. So we may see shifts in the actual vote counts. By and large, nationwide and statewide, Democrats have been motivated to get out and vote. It's a determined population who wants to make sure their votes count. We've seen long lines across the country. You mentioned Ossoff. That was a race that we were watching very closely, not just who would win, but the margins. Tell me about the other races that you're watching. I mean, the two big ones for me, Texas and Michigan. Ken Paxton in Texas is the Republican, and James Tallarico is the Democrat there. This is a seat that has not gone to a Democrat since 1988. This would be a remarkable changing of the fates for Democrats, but they have been neck and neck throughout the polling and throughout these campaigns. And so that is a huge one to watch. In Michigan, it's Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers, the Republican. Republican, again. Another representation for the Democratic Party in Abdul El-Sayed, DSA member, a progressive, you know, backed by AOC, Bernie Sanders. We saw Democrats coalesce behind him, but they believe they have a good chance here. But Democrats need to hold that seat because that is the one of the seven that is already held by a Democrat. That race is also interesting about the future of the Democratic Party going into the presidential for the next couple of years to see how that pans out. Because progressives, if El-Sayed wins and you look at the rise of Zohra Mamdani in New York. Progressives of the party will say, look at what we've been able to do with our sort of economic populist message and to beat someone here like this. And so that will require some tough questions and looking in the mirror for Democrats if El-Sayed wins that race. On the flip side, if he loses, the moderates in the establishment will say, see, we told you. It is certainly taking the temperature for the Democratic Party of what's next for them. You know, we should mention, too, there are a lot of governor races coming around. We've got the governor race. Declared for Westmore in Maryland, in Massachusetts declared, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania as well. Obviously, we're watching our governor's race here. Absolutely. Steve Hilton versus Javier Becerra. The two men ran very different campaigns. Steve Hilton was all over the state with a lot of detailed plans specific to the cost of living. And he's been... Carrying that President Trump endorsement, which in California is a handicap for anyone. But for Republicans, he probably represents a best chance of turning this seat for Republicans in a very long time. He's a very good orator. He's good at sending his message. And he's speaking directly to the issues that voters care about. The problem for him is he's running in California, a state where Democrat registration is two to one over Republicans. Javier Becerra has run a very different campaign. Campaign after a very tumultuous primary, we have not until the last couple of weeks seen a lot of Javier Becerra, but now he's been out there. He has said, I'm not making a lot of promises, I don't want to make a lot of plans until I know what I'm looking at. It'll be interesting to see what the numbers end up tonight, right? The conservative knowledge is that Becerra will win this running away, but obviously it's up to the voters, and that is why we do what we do. But perhaps one of the things that Becerra, if he does indeed win tonight, is considers the fact that some of these messages from Steve Hilton were resonating with voters. Cheaper gas, cutting red tape, building more housing. Those are all things. Especially in Southern California, too. Absolutely. And that's where Hilton will be tonight. We know Becerra is in Northern California tonight. But that is one of the things that that will be up for consideration, because the one thing that a lot of California voters said they wanted was change. They wanted something different than what we have seen. And so perhaps if Becerra does win, and that's how things end up tonight, he takes that to heart and considers some of the things that made and makes Steve Hilton appealing to voters when he's been out on the campaign trail. And make yourself different than Governor Newsom, who's been in office for eight years. That's right. And certainly, I mean, Hilton has been saying that on the campaign trail again and again. He said if something's not working, let's try for a change. And that has resonated with people when you hear voters talking about maybe we should try something different. So whether the numbers play out, there's certainly a message there. Underline. Yeah, and look, a lot of those plans that Hilton proposed would certainly face a firewall in the Democratic supermajority in the legislature, but regardless, those were plans that people were sort of appealed to. Got it. Greg, don't go far. We'll bring you back later in the hour. Thank you. Thanks, guys. All right.