John Wisniewski, Former NJ State Legislator, Discusses Key New Jersey Battlegrounds and House Control Implications

Welcome back on Philadelphia Live. I'm Jeff Skowierski. Thanks for staying with us. Of course, Election Day 2026 is right around the corner. Lots of implications for New Jersey. Every congressperson is up for re-election in the Garden State. Let's talk more about that with former longtime New Jersey state legislator and former New Jersey gubernatorial candidate John Wisniewski. John, thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. Yeah. So, John, you served in the New Jersey State Assembly from 1996 to 2018. We'll be right back. What is the biggest race that you are watching right now? What do you think has the biggest implications of all the races going on in New Jersey? Well, the race that every political pundit, Democrat or Republican is watching in New Jersey, New Jersey, but also nationally, is New Jersey 7, where... Congressman Tom Cain faces Rebecca Bennett, a race that for the last two cycles has been at best lean Republican, maybe some would say safe Republican, has now been rated lean Democrat. And that is going to be a switch, I predict, on election night when Rebecca Bennett will get elected and defeat Tom Cain. Why do you believe that? Well, I think there's a couple of things that are at play here. That district demographically has changed quite a bit over the past two cycles, and frankly, for the last decade, it's become increasingly more democratic. The traditional Republican margin that existed there has been almost evaporated. And there's a national mood in which candidates are faced with, which is The disapproval of how the president is handling his job, frustration at prices, gas prices, supermarket prices, and it's a strong wind that no matter how good a candidate you are, it's very difficult to overcome. That's kind of my next question that I wanted to bring up. I mean, how much are people judging the local politicians and their local candidates versus going, OK, well, what is President Trump doing? And are we happy with the president? Do we approve? Do we not approve of President Donald Trump? How much do you think that's trickling down to the different candidates in the state of New Jersey? Well, I think it's trickling down, not just in New Jersey, but nationwide. But this happens rarely, this type of national mood swing election where, you know, if you look nationally, there are Democrats who are really competitive in solid 20-plus Republican districts. This reminds me a lot of the aftermath of Watergate in which, you know, even solid Republican members of Congress, solid Republican senators. saw themselves lose their seat in that election in the aftermath of a national trend. And I think that's what we're seeing here. Talk about the second congressional district. Jeff Andrew, he's, of course, a familiar name in South Jersey. Does he have a significant advantage in this race? Yeah, Jeff Andrew, I served with as an assemblyman. I was in the state house when he was a senator and saw him go off to Congress as a Democrat initially. The one thing that Jeff has done in the 20 plus years that he's held elected office, he's worked that district very well. And so he's a very strong candidate. However, when you look at that national trend I talk about, Zach Mullock, Is this the closest race right now in New Jersey? Or if not, what is the closest race? Well, in terms of the closest race right now is seven, where Rebecca Bennett is leading Tom Cain, at least in the most recent public opinion surveys. I would say that two is probably a district where Democrats are coming close, although I think there's a large distance to go with only a couple of days till Election Day. I would argue that, you know, Chris Smith is in probably the ultimate safe Republican district in New Jersey. I don't see him. I think the last surveys had him maybe up 15 points. I don't see that being a likely pickup for Democrats. But for the rest of the map, the rest of the incumbent Democratic members of Congress, they're all getting reelected and they're getting elected by better numbers than they had two years ago. Let's talk about the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey. Cory Booker, the Democrat against Justin Murphy, the Republican. I'm a Republican. Obviously, Cory Booker is a well-known politician in the state of New Jersey. Here's the... Where do you think he stands right now in the sense of what Justin Murphy would have to do to overtake this race? Well, you'd have to have a lot more money. The last campaign finance report showed that Murphy had raised barely maybe one one hundredth of what Senator Booker has raised. And you can't run a statewide race as speaking of somebody who has run a statewide race. You can't run a statewide race without a lot of money to very expensive media markets. Plus, Cory Booker has been in office for this will be his third term. And. New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972. So this is a monumental lift for Murphy. Booker is the overwhelmingly prohibitive favorite in that race. Is there a common theme for that? You say a Republican has not won that race in a very long time. Is there a common theme that you have seen there, a reason for that? Well, you know, that's a great question. I think ultimately the makeup of New Jersey is largely Democratic. It's a state that, if you look at the congressional map, there's currently nine members of Congress that are Democratic, Democratic governor, Democratic controlled legislature. So I think it reflects the electorate at large in New Jersey. I also think, like, for instance, this year, while the Republicans might have looked at this race and said it might be tough to beat Cory Booker, they really didn't even give it. Any effort. And, you know, that's the way you set yourself up for future elections. So I would argue that the Republican State Committee in New Jersey is essentially just thrown in the towel on trying to win a Senate seat. For someone that's been in politics a very, very long time, what are the final days leading up to these midterms? What are they like? I mean, for any of these politicians that are trying to win their race or get reelected? For them, if they're trying to turn a vote, if you're trying to turn someone's vote or someone's mind or really just create an opinion, maybe someone that doesn't have an opinion, what are these final few days, the final few hours like on the campaign trail? You get very little sleep, you don't eat very well, you're out every single moment that you have trying to connect with voters. Across New Jersey today, there were probably more than a dozen different rallies of different sizes in which candidates, whether they're congressional or county commission or Senator Booker himself, are at making the final pitch because you never I never rest as a candidate until... Eight o'clock when the polls close and the votes start getting counted. And whether you're Cory Booker, an overwhelming favorite, or you're an underdog trying to take away a seat from an incumbent, you just continue to push that until you can push no more at eight o'clock on election day. For everyone that lives in New Jersey. And this may be hard to answer, but is there one issue that you think matters most to the people in the Garden State that any of these candidates are trying to win over or trying to fix? Is there one strong issue across the state or is that just impossible to answer? Well, I think there's a theme. It's affordability. It's, you know, as a subset of that, it's gas prices, it's inflation, it's everyone's paycheck, being able to produce less with each new pay cycle. And there's a sense, there's a palpable sense among voters of frustration that for some of them, they voted in a particular way two years ago, thinking that this was going to to be solved for them. And now they're looking at the results. And they're saying, you know, this isn't working. And I think that's the theme. It's an economic message that Democrats are able to seize on. And Republicans really don't have any significant or satisfactory rebuttal or explanation for. All right, John Wisniewski, we appreciate you joining us. Political analyst joining us with great insight on the state of New Jersey ahead of election day, of course, just days away coming up on Tuesday. Some big races in the state of New Jersey. John, thank you so much for joining us on Philadelphia Live. Thank you very much.