Trump focused on 'what's important to him': 'Tone-deaf for a normally shrewd populist operator'

Now, as you certainly will have heard by now, these midterm elections are, of course, being framed as a referendum of sorts on Donald Trump and on the Republican Party at large. So for more, we're going to speak to Douglas High, Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee. Douglas, thank you so very much for joining us today here on France 24. We're going to talk about the cost of living, of course. But before we get to that, we did just hear word from Donald Trump saying that the United States plans to suspend its military aid. to Israel after the end of this year. This has kind of been an implicit, subtle element of campaigning in these midterm elections. I'd like to get a reaction from you. I mean, do you think he caved to some degree of political pressure, not only from the left, but also from elements of the right that were getting increasingly frustrated with American support towards Israel? I think he certainly caved. The question is why. And ultimately, given that this is election day, this is why this move is a surprise. This has been a huge issue in the Michigan Senate race. And look, a lot of people have already voted in Michigan. People are voting in Michigan right now. But ultimately, this doesn't help Mike Rogers win today. This is good news if you're El-Said. And it's why it's a head-scratcher. This is something that, if that came tomorrow, might make a little more sense. How he inserted this issue. Into the campaign at the very last minute, just like his speech yesterday, is something that I think is pretty puzzling to folks. Do you think it's a mistake to do it today, especially? Yes. And if you're Mike Rogers, again, so much of the Senate race in Michigan has been about Israel, support for Israel. El-Said talks about that issue constantly and AIPAC. It seems to be an off topic mistake for Donald Trump. And he's made a lot of those lately. We're going to get to that, of course, Douglas. So one of the biggest driving factors in support for Trump in 2024 was, of course, the state of the economy. He vowed not only to bring costs down, but to take the United States out of costly wars as well. Now, he has broken both of those promises in ways that have really been heartfelt by his supporters. Why do you think he risked shattering his support with such unpopular policy moves? Well, I don't think it's so much unpopular policy moves, although obviously tariffs have played a huge role in that and how it's affected not just our economy, but other economies. France is a good example. But it's also the issue that he either doesn't seem to get it or his eye is off the ball. And that's been a real problem for Trump. If we go back to the State of the Union address in January, he said America has never been richer or hotter. Voters don't feel rich and they don't feel hot right now. And meanwhile, Trump has spent months focused on, as recently as yesterday, the Kennedy Center, the reflecting pool, building an arch, a golf course in Washington, D.C. And for a lot of voters, they see him focused on what's important to him, not what's important to them. It really begs the question, Douglas, especially when it comes to the denial that he seems to be expressing about the reality, the very difficult realities that millions of Americans are facing now. Do you believe that he actually cares about what Americans are going through at this point in time? Well, if he does, he certainly isn't demonstrating it. When I first came in politics, I remember really clearly Bill Clinton said, I feel your pain, right? The economy in 1992 wasn't at a great place. And Clinton tried to tell voters how he empathized with them, how he understood this. Trump continually just goes off on these weird tangents about things that aren't important to people, or he brags about how much gas costs right now and how much money companies are making and so forth. All of these are very tone-deaf things for somebody who normally is a pretty smart and shrewd populist operator. Now, that certainly does explain the polling that we've seen in recent days, weeks, even months, suggesting a blue wave, the possibility that the Democrats take not only the House, but also potentially the Senate, in addition to quite a few competitive governor's races. If this does indeed happen, be it a wave, a ripple, a tsunami, do you project that it'll be more because of Republicans who supported Trump in 2024 2024 are deciding just to stay home and to punish him, so to speak, by not voting. voting at all, or more due to independents and Republicans who maybe supported Trump in the past coming out in bigger numbers for Democrats? Well, it's both. And the reality is when the president's numbers are where they are, you expect to have losses. And, you know, when I was at the RNC in 2010, I was at the Our magic number for Obama was 46. We thought if he was at or below 46% approval, we'd take back the House. Trump is nowhere near that. Of course, meanwhile, Democrats aren't popular either. So whether we're talking waves or not, all they need is a ripple to take back the House. It certainly could be larger than that. And there's obviously the very real possibility of taking back the Senate as well. That means Washington in 2027 is not going to be a fun place. It sounds also like part of the issue is that there are very few Republican candidates that have been able to generate as much enthusiasm as Donald Trump did in the past. Do you think that errors were made in the choice of candidates, especially in Republican districts that are now looking really very competitive? Sure. There's no better example than that, than Ken Paxton in Texas. That's a seat we would have won unquestionably if John Cornyn had been our nominee. But the reality is, with Trump's low approval rating, even in Republican-heavy Texas, that's another reason Ken Paxton can lose. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson is as good a candidate as we could have recruited, a member of Congress running for Senate now. But Trump's approval rating in Iowa, farm-heavy Iowa, where diesel Diesel costs are so high where we're having real trouble getting. Fertilizer, which is very important for farmers. She's in a nip and tuck race. She could win, but she sure could lose. And that reason goes back to Donald Trump's popularity and how low it is. I've been listening to focus groups, Douglas, in a lot of these red states and something that a lot of people have been complaining about, not only on the left, but really on the right quite a bit as well, is feeling bombarded, if not manipulated by these very expensive, divisive, in some cases, racist ads, campaign ads. Do you think that growing spending, especially from billionaires, be they Republicans or Democrats, is starting to get kind of counterproductive in a way? Well, I think we've been saying for a generation now, every two years is the most expensive election that we've ever had. And where that end is in sight, I don't think anybody knows yet. Clearly, the bombardment of ads is wearing down voters. I think one of the best things you can do as a voter, by the way, there's mail and there's phone calls as well. If you vote early, the mail stops, the phone calls stop. And those are the most intrusive things. You can sort of ignore Some of the TV ads, but. I'd be I'd be able to wager right now that in two years and in four years, we'll be talking about how expensive these ads and elections are. Now, gerrymandering, Douglas, was a pretty big part of Republicans strategy looking towards these midterm elections. How do you think that redistricting has shaped these midterms? Has it worked in Republicans favor in some of the more competitive areas? Or do you think that, too, maybe has has done a little bit of a disservice? Well, I think it's been an issue for both parties. Maryland this morning, and I'm about two miles from Maryland where I'm sitting now, they have a referendum on the ballot about Democratic redistricting. California has done certainly a lot of that. I think it's done two things. One, it's made a lot less competitive seats, a lot less competitive Republican seats, a lot less competitive Democratic seats. That's a problem. And I say that's a problem because it means in the primaries, Democrats run to the left, Republicans run to the right, and those who get to Washington, I find it much harder to find common ground with people in the different parties. But also, we've seen examples of where, because they're trying to get one more seat or two more seats in a state, what we call a gerrymander, meaning that you make some members more vulnerable to lose. Greg Murphy, a Republican in North Carolina, is a good example. He lost Republicans in his congressional district, and he may lose because of it. Now, as a successful Republican strategist in the past yourself, what do you think that the GOP should have or could do differently moving forward to avoid such close fights, especially as they start to prepare for the presidential race in 2028? This election was going to be a tough one. Presidents usually lose control of Congress or at least lose seats in their midterm elections. But it's been very hard for Republican candidates to focus on their messaging. And that's because of Trump. Every Republican candidate really wants to say, here's what I've done to try and lower prices, and here's what I want to do over the next two years. But Donald Trump's bizarre messaging, again, as recently as yesterday at the Reflecting Pool, just makes that job that much harder for Republicans. They've never really felt that they're on offense, and Democrats sure feel that they're on offense. Now, as a final question for you, Douglas, I mean, these elections are being framed as the most consequential midterms in recent history, but they do also fit into a pattern that we see every midterm cycle. It's a referendum on the president with the party not in office, obviously always expected to perform better. So do you think there's anything that's really different about these midterms? And if so, what is it? Look, every midterm election is the most important one. Every presidential election is the most important one in our nation's history. We hear that over and over again. But the reality is voters are not happy, and they're not happy with Republicans, certainly. They're also not happy with Democrats. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some incumbent Democrats lose, especially in the House, that aren't necessarily on radar screens. Washington is very unpopular. And until Washington, Republican or Democrat, or Republican and Democrat. Try and tackle some of these problems. It's going to remain the case. Well, here we'll wait and see in just a few hours, then, if either party really does take that messaging from the outcome. Republican strategist Douglas High, thank you so very much for joining us today. Thank you.