What to watch in Illinois’ governor, Senate and congressional races

Welcome back. Voters across Illinois are headed to the polls today to decide some major races from the race for governor to the Senate seat that is being vacated by Dick Durbin and all 17 congressional seats. Early voting numbers are already outpacing the last midterm election. I'm going to break it all down with former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady. Pat, thanks so much for being with us. Good morning, guys. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. All right. So this is going to be a big one for the city of Chicago. The first entirely elected Chicago school board in history. What could be different with this fully elected board? Well, I think the big political story is whether or not the Chicago Teachers Union has enough clout to get their candidates across to finish. And I think they're Participators supporting 14 of the candidates, plus they have a candidate in the president's race. So let's see if CTU can deliver, and if they can't, that actually sends a pretty big message into the mayoral race if CTU is the mayor's main supporter. Maybe they aren't the political juggernaut that everybody thinks they are, but that's the thing I'm really watching, to see how many of their candidates actually win. Are you watching as well for any potential Are there any potential surprises here in Illinois today? I wish I could say yes, but I'm not. It's gonna be a rough year for all my republicans. That's too bad because we have a lot of really good candidates. I encourage everybody still today to get out and vote if you haven't voted already. But I don't anticipate any surprises, but that's what elections are all about. We'll see what the people think about the pollsters and hopefully it's a better night for republicans then. Then they've been talking about, well, I want to focus on that comment with the fourth congressional district because this is a really interesting one. You have Patty Garcia, who is the Democrat, no relation to Chewy Garcia, but. Some people were upset in the controversial way she became a candidate. It was one of the last days to file. He decides he's not going to run that day and then puts his chief of staff up. So it's Patty Garcia, the Democrat, against Lupita Castillo, the Republican. And then you've got Ed Hershey, who is with a third party, and then Chris Getty, also a third party. What about this race, though? Could that be different for the Democrats? And I don't think so. And listen, that shenanigans with the way she got on the ballot, welcome to Chicago politics has been going on for decades, but that's a pretty solidly Democrat seat. So I think it's a real long shot to think anybody, but Patty Garcia is going to win. Pat, what's your reaction to, as Natalie just mentioned before our segment, that early voting has already outpaced the previous midterm election. How significant of a stat is that in your mind in terms of how overall turnout is going to be today versus past Well, sometimes that early voting is cannibalizing people that would vote on election day. So I think it's a good sign we're seeing more participation. I think more people are getting used to the idea of early voting, which is a relatively new thing in Illinois. But I think we'll have a decent turnout now if you're on the Democratic side. That would suggest to them, or they'll tell you that there's huge enthusiasm for the Democratic candidates and they're going to have a big night. But usually when you're trying to read those early vote tea leaves, you're not always accurate. So just got to run it through the tape and see what happens tonight. This was interesting to me. I did a little history research. Only two previous Illinois governors won a third term, Oglesby and then Thompson. Thompson actually served four terms, correct me if I'm wrong, Pat. Both Republicans, though. And so how likely do you think it is for J.B. Pritzker, and I already know your answer to this, to achieve the same, a three-peat? Yeah. It's going to be difficult, but Natalie, I'm old enough to be both your parents. I remember Jim Thompson well. And for Republicans, we had 26 straight years of Republican governors. We elected a Republican governor in 2014. In 2010, we had 11 of the 19 congressional seats that controlled all the county boards. So this is going to be a rough cycle for Republicans, but there's still an appetite for Republicans to win statewide. I remember when Mark Kirk won. In 2010, Senator Kirk, Barack Obama had won this state by 25 points. And two years later, Senator Kirk takes his seat in a state that some people consider blue. So we just gotta get through this cycle, do the best we can then kind of retool because I think there is a message. For what the Republicans have to offer, but we need to get back to talk about what people care about. We could talk to you all morning, Pat Brady, but we're getting the rap from our producer. We will check back in with another results here. Pat Brady, thank you very much. And a reminder, our results coverage here at your election headquarters on Fox Chicago starts at six o'clock tonight. We will stay on air through the late hours. We'll be right back.