Talarico, Hinojosa & Record Turnout| Battleground Texas

Lone Star State have never been higher from top ticket races to the latest polls, campaign ads and candidate interviews. We're tracking every move on the road to November. This is Battleground Texas. Well, good afternoon. I'm Stephen Dial in Dallas. I'm Greg Grugan in Houston. I'm Rudy Kosky and Austin and welcome to the battleground. It's election Eve. All right guys let's buckle up. A new New York Times CNN poll reveals a major shift in the Senate race. Democrat James Tallarico has surged to a seven point lead in this poll over Republican Ken Paxton among likely voters that they surveyed. Tallarico currently holds 50 percent of the vote Paxton's 43%. Tallarico is outperforming Paxton heavily with women. Paxton maintains an edge with white voters. Now, two other new polls reveal a somewhat split decision. An Atlas Intel poll shows Tallarico at 51.3% and Paxton at 45.4%. But a new Trafalgar Group poll shows Paxton holding a razor-thin lead over Tallarico, edging him out. 48.1% to 47.5%. Each candidate with more stump speeches today following a busy weekend. In San Antonio Sunday, their messages stuck to their now very familiar scripts. No matter how many commercials he runs lying about his record, James Tallarico is simply put a democratic socialist, just like AOC and just like the mayor of New York, Madani. We are running against the most corrupt politician in Texas history. Ken Paxton represents everything that's wrong with our politics. He doesn't serve us. He serves himself. Now, the race for Texas governor is coming down to the wire. According to the New York Times Siena poll, Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa has narrowly overtaken Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. Hinojosa leads Abbott 48 to 47 percent among likely voters. The survey highlights a sharp gender divide. Abbott leads by 11 points among men, while Hinojosa holds a 13 point advantage with women. Now, the newly released Atlas Intel survey also shows Hinojosa holding a narrow edge in the governor's race, leading Abbott 49.2% to 47.6%. Governor Abbott stopped by Don Ramon's Mexican restaurant here in Houston just a couple of hours ago, and yesterday I spoke one-on-one with Hinojosa, giving her a chance to make a last pitch to independence. I'm running to be the governor for all Texans, not the governor for Democrats. Look, both political parties are broken. It is an opportunity to forge There's deep disappointment in both right now. a new way forward where we set aside the culture wars and focus on what we can all agree on. Forging a new way forward that is about delivering for the people of Texas, making sure that there is economic opportunity. So that hardworking families can make it in Texas, it's harder to make it than it was 12 years ago, it doesn't have to be that way. Listen, here's the deal. We know what early vote looked like. The Democrats came out strong, the Republicans closed strong, and we pretty much have a tie game right now. This election will come down to election day tomorrow. And you know who's won election day, election after election after election? Republicans. We have one task ahead of us, and that is to make sure all Republicans go vote tomorrow. Both candidates for the state's top job also spent big money on ads that played during Sunday's Dallas Cowboys game. Abbott's theme, chaos versus common sense. Hinojosa's, priceless. Taxpayer-funded handouts for data centers, $40,453,361.81. What it costs Elon Musk to have a governor who works for him, $5,500,000. No-bid government contracts to Abbott donors, $950,681,935. Electing a governor who can't be bought? Priceless. In the race for governor, it's chaos versus common sense. Gina Hinojosa supports open border policies so anyone can come in. Governor Abbott secured our border and cracked down on cartels. Hinojosa supports a state income tax. Governor Abbott banned it. And Hinojosa supports transitioning children and taking them away from their parents if they don't go along with it. Aside from the big two races, Lieutenant Governor candidate Vicki Goodwin is throwing her support behind Texas hemp businesses. Today in Austin, Goodwin joined industry leaders suing the state health department over a recent push to reclassify legal hemp products as controlled substances, calling it executive overreach. So I don't believe that we should be banning all THC like Dan Patrick believes we should. I think we should have sensible regulation. We should make it 21 and up, make sure the packaging is so that people know what they're putting in their bodies. We should make it so that the marketing is not directed to children. We can do this. We can use examples from other states that have been successful here in Texas rather than eliminating 50,000 or more jobs. Eliminating products that hundreds of thousands of people have come to use and benefit from. On Halloween, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick took to X to post, the witching hour is ticking. With three days until election day, protect your wallets from Vicky Goodwin's costly agenda. And don't let higher taxes haunt your family's budget. Say no to Vicky Goodwin's scary spending. Vote Dan Patrick on election day, Tuesday, November 3rd. All right, breaking down the latest mix of polling data and early turnout numbers when Battleground Texas returns. Voting numbers are in and Texas saw record-breaking turnout for a midterm election. More than 7.7 million Texans cast their ballots. That is roughly 40% of all registered voters in the state, crushing the 31% early turnout we saw back in the 2022 midterms. The surge is especially clear down south, and several Rio Grande Valley counties' early voting alone has already surpassed their total overall turnout from the last midterm cycle. Meanwhile, the state's biggest counties are driving massive volume. Harris County recorded more than 1 million early votes, while Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis counties each cleared the 400,000 mark. Okay, fellas, we are now just hours away from the actual midterm election, and based upon my conversations with multiple numbers crunchers, nothing is totally in the bag. In other words, Republicans can still pull off a clean sweep with a hefty turnout tomorrow. On the flip side, if Democrats can capture 60% of the so-called independent vote, Texas will not only elect its first progressive senator since 1988, but also the first blue team governor since 1990. Stephen, I'm told if the Indy vote goes 55-45, Tallarico still wins. But Abbott and most, if not all, of the statewide Republicans hold on. Agree with or disagree with that? I think Democrats would be happy with that. Of course, they want to win up and down the ballot, but that might not happen. The best scenario for Democrats here in Texas is the Senate race, is the Tallarico race for months, guys. We have been talking about this perfect storm for Democrats. The economy, whether you like it or not, it is what it is right now. Gas prices are lower than a couple of weeks ago, but it is still high. So it is what it is right now. And then you have Ken Paxton, a candidate that some Republicans aren't even voting for. The unknown is- It's how many Republicans will cross the line or leave it unchecked. But there is, there still is, a scenario where Tallarico and Hinojosa can win, Greg. All right, Rudy, we are down to the lick log, as Ann Richards used to say. Now, you've been skeptical and with good reason that blue energy would hold through Election Day. What's your educated guess? Well, my educated guess is that the polls are just all over the place right now. Like the polls that we looked at earlier in this show is like, wow, who do you believe, right? My Democrat contacts, they're nervous. My Republican contacts, They're anxious and they're ready to pounce on any perceived misstep. For example, the battle over who sent out those transgender mailers has now reached the state Supreme Court. And then there's that recent pro-Hinojosa op-ed in the Dallas Morning News, which turns out was written by a Hinojosa consultant. No one likes slimy political tricks, certainly a bad look on both and all, but especially for a newspaper that was once a reliable source for information. Wow, what a hit for the Dallas Morning News, Greg. Yeah, Stephen, Paxton needs a prolific day of vote, especially in red counties like Collin and out in the Texas countryside. You feeling it, or have too many conflicted conservative voters decided to sit this one out? Man, Republicans show up on election day, so they have that in their back pocket. The question is two things. One, how will the weather impact some of these red counties, and will it keep people on the couch? And then two, how many Republicans are just over Ken Paxton, Greg? All right, Rudy, same question to you. Is it going to be better the devil you don't know versus the one you do quickly? You know, I think that it's going to be interesting just to see who shows up and who basically forfeits, right? Okay, more political shenanigans and a political lesson. A state lawmaker from rural Texas sounds off on both when Battleground Texas continues. Welcome back to the battleground. A top member of the State Senate, Lois Kolkhorst, a Republican from Brenham, spoke to me about the tough lessons Texas GOP is learning right now from this midterm. She pointed out how Democrat James Tellarico has capitalized on the insulin cap bill that she wrote and she got passed. It's very misleading and I think that's his entire campaign has been misleading. It starts with the Senate Bill 827 by Kolkhorst. That is a Republican bill. If you really look at the initiative, it was a Donald Trump initiative from his first. Term, we'd been looking at it and watching it very closely. And when I filed that bill, it was a bipartisan bill. I passed it over to the House and actually Representative Lucio III picked it up. So his blatant naming of that bill, I mean, you can say I helped pass it, I was a part of it, but just how misleading he has been and disingenuous about the real facts. You mentioned, I passed property tax. That is absolutely not the truth. That is a Republican led initiative, just like Senate Bill 827 capping insulin at $25. He did not even file my companion bill on that. His bill was different than the bill that I passed. He had a bill, House Bill 40, I think that was referred to the Insurance Committee in the Texas House and never got out of committee. Is this a learning moment? For the Texas GOP? Absolutely, absolutely. And I think that all Republicans need to learn to run a general election race. Do the Republicans have to adjust their messaging? I don't think that we went out and we told people what we did for them consistently. And actually, we had such a good session that James Tellarico is stealing the bills and saying that they're his. So the proof's in the pudding. We've done some great things as Republicans, we just don't go out there and tell them. When we leave the legislative session, we get paid $600 a month, we go back to the district, we work, we go back to our jobs, and we also meet with our constituents. But we don't, as you said in a text message to To me recently to our horns, and I'm gonna start tooting that horn a little bit more from the from now on. Yeah, that horn is maybe a bugle saying circle the wagons right now, guys. You know, the senator said there's a long list of recent legislative accomplishments that never really got promoted enough by them. Things that go beyond hot button social issues. Told me things that the red team's game plan for next session includes home affordability for young families, clamping down more on local tax hikes, shoring up public education. Greg, those are certainly bread and butter issues. We've talked about that. Somehow Republicans lost all that. In this data center, flock camera, billionaire, boogeyman noise, right? Yeah, Rudy. I mean, if the Republicans in once ruby red Texas take a shellacking, there's going to be plenty of splaining and soul searching to do. The culture war messaging aimed at getting the base to the ballot box turned off a lot of independents and energized a bunch of Democrats. Republicans in the past. Have, I think, accurately portrayed Democrats as looking to raise taxes to fund a cascade of social programs, effectively making government bigger and the households with the lowest income more dependent. But instead of a focus on holding the line on taxes and stoking a robust economy, which enables self-dependency, Republicans decided to unload too much of their ammo on those boogeymen. La economía, pendejo. Of course, when you hitch your wagon to a president who starts a war he can't seem to end, there's a price to pay, and Republicans may pony up hard come tomorrow. Guys? Good take, Greg. You know, you've got to hand it, though, to Team Tallarico to successfully hijack two top Republican victories and then turn them into his own campaign promotion. Pretty bold, too, that the ads keep running despite being called out. Now, Coker's told me that if she wins, or if he wins, and she wins and she goes back, she's going to track every hard left flip-flop that he's making in D.C. Stephen, I think that's the challenge for any Democrat who may win Tuesday. Don't become a one term wonder like Ann Richards, right? Yeah, yeah, absolutely and to the ads and politicians on both sides have done this. Yeah, I mean they say that they champion the bill when you were just one of the votes on the bill. But the thing is messaging matters and that is what voters who are going to vote for him are hearing Oh, you champion this bill. Great. This is what I want. And so they're not going to get into the weeds of, oh, you didn't co-sponsor this. Now, there is a point where you got to be honest about it and just say, hey, I was a part of this bill, not I was the one who led it. But it's political gamesmanship. And that's where we are right now, Rudy. You know, as we head into... Tomorrow, election day, I was looking at the weather forecast guys and I was really worried about this earlier. So the forecast for here in central Texas looks pretty good. We're going to get some early rain and then it's going to clear out about early mid morning ish and all that. So that's a good thing. Stephen, the weather looks pretty good up there for tomorrow. Your forecast. Yeah, I'm told that our forecast is going to be clear by the time people wake up. Yeah, but Greg, it's going to be soggy, right, in Houston? Yeah, but I talked to Mark Jones earlier today, and he says there's really no good, I guess, data or research that shows that, you know, rainy weather knocks down turnout. So I was kind of surprised by that. Also, real quick, Rudy, both of those bills that Tallarico took credit for, they would pass without a single Democrat vote, right? Right. So, yeah, pretty bogus. Go ahead. Oh, it's me. Our parting shots when Battleground Texas returns. Welcome back. This is the portion of the show where we reserve to settle up all family business with our parting shots. I'll go first. With the hold your nose factor, Republicans like Dan Patrick and Ted Cruz banked on fellow conservatives, particularly the reluctant ones, holding their nose and voting for morally reprehensible Ken Paxton as the lesser of two evils. Tomorrow, we will learn if that gamble was solid or comes up snake eyes. Either way, I think the decision to roll the dice has gone has done some permanent damage to the GOP. And put hyper-progressives like Tallarico and Hinojosa in position to represent a state which remains far more centrist than they will ever be. Steven, what you got? Yeah, I'm going to say, will this all be for nothing? I'm talking about the Democrat side of things. Okay, now it takes time for a Democrat to win in a southern state. I'm from Georgia. You see what happened in Georgia. It took time and investment, and now they have two Democrat U.S. senators that were elected. Twice, in a way, because of the special election that had to happen. So my question is, will it be all for nothing here in Texas? Will Democrats give up if they lose the Senate race? Will they stop investing in Texas? That remains to be seen. Rudy. Guys, my parting shot is a perplexing question. It's not about political football, but a real pigskin problem. And Stephen, no, I'm not talking about the upcoming Ole Miss-Georgia game. What I'm talking about is, which is worse, the Dallas offensive line or the Dallas defense as a whole? Sorry, guys. I'm still a little sore from hitting my head, my forehead, all Sunday afternoon. I couldn't believe it. Come on, cowboys. All right. All right. Ouch. All right. That's all the time we have. You can see more of our interviews and segments by going to our YouTube pages. And keep the conversation going by hitting us up on social media. Tomorrow is election day, so we will be on for a full hour starting at three on Fox Local. Until then, Vaya con Dios from the Fox Texas Trio.