Strong Solar Flares/ Solar Storm/ Polar Cap Absorption Event August 26 2025!

James Coughlin, World News Report today. Here today with a complete solar weather, space weather update. Starting out looking at our KP indexes. These are ground-based indexes that tell us what our plasma and solar wind and the combination of the two look like at any given spot on planet Earth. Starting out in Boulder, looks like they've had three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. It looks like it was all clear today in Fredericksburg. Our estimated planetary index is a KP index used by NOAA and NASA, recently upgraded, and that one says that it's a very quiet day today. Looking at our college index, well, it says that we just got through with three hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm. It's by far our most sensitive and altogether today we've had six hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm and three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. Now we regularly only trust the estimated planetary KP index as it has been upgraded. All right, today we've already had three M-class solar flares from our very busy sunspot groups. We started the day out about 30 minutes into the day, or only about 7:30 last night central time, with a 3.35 solar flare out of AR4199. That was followed up by another M flare, even stronger, an M4.5 solar flare out of Sunspot Group AR4197. That happened, well, peaked at 524. which is about 10:30 last night central time. Now we've just also had an M1 solar flare and I would tell you all that's an unnamed sunspot group. Well it is unnamed on our well charts today but it has been named 4202. Now I can't tell you where it is and I'll show you why. but it just produced an M1 solar flare 4202. all right starting the day off here's our M3.35 out of a simple sunspot group at the time 4199 i believe it's still simple that happened at about 7:30 central time last night or about 30 minutes into the UTC day That was followed up by an M4.5 at 5:25, that's UTC time, so that's right at 10:25 Central Time here in the U.S. last night. That came from sunspot group AR4197 that they now say is a delta class sunspot group. Here it's called a beta gamma sunspot group. You can tell because it's in orange. If it was a delta class sunspot group, it would actually be red. It is, in fact, or has been upgraded to a delta class sunspot group, the most complex sunspot groups that we know about. That was followed by an M1 out of 4202. It's going to be real hard to determine which sunspot group that is because there were about three that needed to be named. That happened at 14:07 UTC time, so minus 7 just after 9 a.m. this morning Central Time. You can see that the 4.56, and it's hard to say if this is today's or yesterday's, is the strongest we've seen in 72 hours. I guess this is the 4.52, the 24-hour max right here. Very close, you can see there. We also doubled our numbers, just like I told you we would. We now have a 10% chance of an X-class solar flare, a 55% chance of an M-class solar flare. That chip did sail, and we're running a strong C-baseline, i.e. a 99% chance of that. Over to HMI Intensigram, we have two of these to look at. We see 4197, which is now a Delta class sunspot group. Here it's still Beta Gamma from earlier this morning. We see 4191, directly Earth-facing. We have a total of nine sunspot groups, I believe. Yes, nine sunspot groups that are Earth-facing. Although you can see that we had a couple that needed to be named. I'm just not sure which is 4202. What else do we have? We have 4199. 4199 was responsible also for one of the M flares today. That was the M3.35 that happened right around 7:30 last night Central Time, which was on the 26th UTC-wise. Generally the same picture sometimes taken at a different time. We still don't know which of these is 4202. We know that 4197 was responsible for the 4.52 and 4199 the 3.35 solar flare. 4191 has been very quiet for days and again one of these two just produced an M1 flare But we don't know what 4201 and 4202, which one is which. All right, we're officially in a solar storm here. Really, we were in and out of one yesterday, but we're definitely in a solar storm now. This is our ghost proton flux, a solar storm or protons pouring in our poles. And we see the 10 million volts of electricity line. Breaking over the space weather threshold here and the 50 million volt line in blue has moved up slightly but it's not very intimidating. We are we are getting 10 million volts through both of our poles. They're hardly protected at all by our Van Allen belts. Again this is a solar storm. We get hit by solar winds or a filament All right, taking a look at NOAA's KP index breakdowns, their forecast for today, the 26th, tomorrow, the 27th, the 28th, quiet sailing, folks, every day. There's supposed to be no solar winds or plasma hitting Earth, and I really haven't seen any Earth-directed coronal holes, or any Earth-directed filament releases, or any Earth-directed solar flares. So I can go with this. All right, over it goes. 19 solar ultraviolet composite 195 angstroms. It's so much easier to see what's going on when they remove the filter here. This has been done by happenstance. You can see this line here. It's probably part of the spacecraft itself. Here it goes. So we're going to run through this real quickly. And this is, there is the M1 flare. You can actually see it occur there. I'm guessing it's the second of the two sunspot groups. The last one to come around the limb there. The other one must be 4201. Just based on the location itself. Very very strange how we see the spacecraft I guess here and we have a artifact up here. Now all the M-flares we've had over the last three or four days we would expect to see plasma shooting in every direction. Maybe not the direction of Earth. We do see plasma at the very end there. And I just don't see how that could be the M1 flare, but it corresponds timing-wise to the M1 flare and position-wise with 4202 for what we think 4202 would be located and where it would be named. That would be the only one that caused a coronal mass ejection, the M1 flare. Strange stuff. Over to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center also recently upgraded for millions of dollars in taxpayers money. Today is the 26th. Jump to the 26th. We see that they believe that plasma is going to start the day off at about 6 and end the day off at about 3 here. So 6 to 3 on plasma. On the 26th here they see solar winds starting the day off at about 400. And they see them rising up to about 550. So 400 to 550 and 6 to 3. We'll see how good they did when we get to our discovered ACE satellites. Over to our D-region absorption prediction center, we're in an ongoing polar cap absorption event, which means those protons we saw i.e. the solar storm are pouring in the poles where the Van Allen belts don't protect the planet as well as they do everywhere else and we can see the north pole is taking the brunt of this look at the radio ionization radios are going to be useless in the north pole and they're going to be having a lot of problems in the south pole it looks like usually we see the south pole taking the brunt of this and this is a little unique but remember we're getting fried like an egg Someone in Arizona on X actually fried an egg on one of the rocks in their garden. Well, within a pan, actually. Left the pan out for 15 minutes, popped open the egg, fried in just a few moments. And that was in Arizona yesterday on X. Very interesting that UV is off the hook. All right, this is where it has just been named. All this has been named. It's going to be 9.9 on the top and 0.2 and 0.1 on the bottom. Just when you think it's safe to go back in the water, we still have 0.2.0 to deal with in orange here, 0.1.9 to deal with, and now 0.2.1 to deal with. And they all look nasty on the composite down here. And I believe I mentioned it, but this is the back side of the sun, and this is the earth-facing side on both these composites here. And they're both a day and a half old. This has moved in and been named as discussed. Over to our Discover satellite here. Plasma first. It looks like they did all right. The beginning of the day is here. You can say that's six. See the 6 in there, closing up, 6.01, beginning of the day, and it fluctuated down to 1 and back up to 3 and back up to 6. So they went from 6 to 3. It's been all over the place, but between 6 and 3 and lower. Now, where they really got it wrong was solar winds. Solar winds, they said, would start out at about 425 and end up at about 550. Instead, they started out at 425 and well, they're down at 330 and back up to 370 and headed back down to 350 currently. So that does not look like a good call on the solar winds. I'll remind y'all of that. Here's the 425 up to 550, really almost 600. I don't know where they saw a coronal hole, but there wasn't one. We're going to take a look at SOHO, 284 angstroms. If there was one, we'll for sure see it. They saw something, but they got that dead wrong. All right, checking our work. It looks like everything checks out. We started at about 450. This is really the beginning of the day. So let's say 425 and down, down, down to 300. So of course, the Space Weather Prediction Center got this completely wrong. Temperature reinforces everything we've seen here. And they did a pretty good job on the plasma from 6 to 3, from 6 to 3, although it went even lower than one centimeter cubed a few times. Alright, SDO HMI magnetogram image. This is a mess. Look at the white over black here. No wonder it's a delta class sunspot. It's a reverse polarity sunspot. This is 4191, 4197, 4199 and you can't see 01 or 02 on this composite. This was taken last night, which is the reason. Let's see if so is any newer. This was taken at 6.06 Central Time this morning, and we can't really make out any of the sunspot groups, but we can see how busy it is. No coronal hole here passing us. I don't know where they got the uptick to 550, almost 600 kilometers per second in solar winds. That is as deep of a mystery as so many other things associated with NOAA and NASA. Over to the EESA, the European Space Agency, Euphoria. If you don't travel the world a lot, you don't realize that the European countries have 20-hour, 23-hour work weeks max, and almost everything they do is incorrect. I'm surprised Germany is so good at making vehicles. I truly am. A lot of it is automated, but I'm truly surprised. And Sweden makes the M-Law, mother-in-law, any tank battery weapons. They're awesome, too. So they do produce some good stuff. Obviously, some of the chip parts come out of Finland, the only country to be able to make those parts. But they have very short work weeks. Here we see on the 26th, they've got plasma way up here. In the 20-25 range, of course, it's in the 3-6 range, and then here, they also see a coronal hole, C-26, they have it pretty much down here still, we'll get that to stop and see if we can figure out where the 26 is, alright, it's all through the 26, remember, it went from 425 here, here, to 550 here. And I've turned it to 27, so they've got it way under 350, under 325, and below 300. They totally blew this. You could say, well, this is the opposite of what occurred. I don't know where they saw this CME ejection hitting Earth, because we've had no Earth-facing coronal mass ejections. that we know about and i don't know why both agencies have this huge jump in plasma this went only to 500 kilometers per second then almost to 600 kilometers per second all happening in around the 26th this one more on the 27th No coronal holes, which are what produces solar wind, have been Earth-facing or visible for days. Finally, over to theplanetstoday.com. We've got a geomagnetic connection seen in pink to Pluto, one to Sirius, one to Saturn, one to Neptune, one to Eris. We're about to have one to Uranus. And we did have a 6.1 Earthquake yesterday. We had a little call out for yesterday. We also have a call out for the 9th and 10th of September and the 21st and 27th, uh, 2nd of September, and we'll get to see why here. It's all nicely, nice, maybe the, uh, the 9th and 10th here, uh, all nicely lined up here with the sun. It could be more perfect, but it's definitely. It's going to cause an uptick in earthquake activity and an uptick in volcanic activity. I think we'll see solar flares all week based on the sunspot groups that are Earth-facing. Although, let's really think about this. They were oh-so-terrible to the right where the gas giants were hanging out. Earth spinning counterclockwise when they blew those X flares. They were facing all these geomagnetic connections. With Sirius, Eris, Neptune, and Saturn, there really are no geomagnetic connections. We do connect to Uranus. Let's see what we do to that. So the 9th, 10th, but the real strike zone is going to be, there's Uranus connection there, which is terrible. This is the real strike zone here, the 21st and 22nd. Expect a huge earthquake or 10. And expect an uptick in volcanic activity. Expect solar flares over the month of September when Earth is on this side of the solar system. Oh, it's just a much busier time, solar flare-wise. Now, after two failed attempts, Starship is supposed to launch at 6.30 Central Time this evening. I will be live about 6 Central Time this evening if you want to join us. For the launch, I don't know if it's going to be scrubbed again or not, but it is planned again for tonight. Tonight, Tuesday, August 26th, the launch itself is at 6.30. We might tune in a little earlier than 6. God bless. Share, subscribe, and always remember that anything's possible in the Zorro world. God bless you guys.