Midterm polls predict ‘blue surge’: Top pollster breaks down 2026 key races

All right, let's bring in Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of Rutgers Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. Ashley, thank you so much. Do you get excited this time of year? Like, it feels like the anticipation has been, you know, I mean, like this year, I guess maybe every midterm or every election kind of builds up to it. But does it feel different this year a little bit? I mean, this is our Super Bowl and our Christmas, right? I mean, for you guys as well, it definitely feels like there is somewhat of a difference, I think, just because of how much each party understands the stakes that are riding on this election. So there is definitely a buzz going around. And this is something that could potentially be pretty historic if the polls shake out to be correct this midterm cycle. So I definitely think there's something different about this particular midterm election. We're already seeing some of those early voting numbers here in New York are pretty strong. Certainly not as strong as you might get during a presidential cycle. But when it comes to the gubernatorial races and those sort of off years when that happens, that it is extremely strong this year. And we're taking a look at some of the other key races that are happening right now. You talked about the polls and it's pretty definitive right now. These polls do show that across the country, Democrats are in a pretty strong position. I mean, what are you seeing there? Yeah, I mean, frankly, narratives have moved from a blue wave for tomorrow now to a large blue surge or tsunami. And so a slate of New York Times-Siena polls just came out over the weekend showing that in a number of key races, the Democrat is ahead in every single one. And we've known throughout the trajectory of this race, I mean, we're now seeing the generic ballot at about... Democrat plus 10, plus 9, somewhere around there. This looks very solidly from polling in the Democrats' corner. So, you know, of course, we have to be aware of who actually turns out to vote. We know in early voting that early voting numbers have been monumental and that, you know, Democrats are far surpassing Republicans. But we also know Republicans are more than likely to vote on Election Day. So, you know, still there's a whole lot of momentum going into this. Nate Silver predicts 90 plus percent for the House, almost 80% in the high 70s for the Senate. So it looks like Democrats are on track. But of course, we have to be careful about who actually turns out by tomorrow and what that means for each one of these key races. Exactly. Obviously, the big race around here, among them, the gubernatorial race in New York. Governor Kathy Hochul is trying to be reelected against. Westchester County Executive Bruce Blakeman on the Republican side. I mean, the latest poll from Siena had Hochul up double digits. Quinnipiac's poll also showing a similar margin there. I mean, realistically, what can Bruce Blakeman do in these last couple hours here this weekend and even today to kind of try to make any difference that he can? I mean, he can hope for turnout. That's really the only thing that could potentially help him. But trying to close in on that double-digit lead that Hochul has over him is almost insurmountable, especially with a lot of the early voting numbers that we've seen at this point. I believe Hochul, in some of the latest New York Times-Siena polling, has favorability ratings that have improved as well. So things look good when it comes to the the governor and her securing her seat once more. And what is the thing? The thing that really that you're seeing, I guess maybe not just in New York, but across the board, What are the key issues that voters care about right now? It's all about affordability. I mean, let's go back to the 90s slogan that it's the economy stupid. It is an all about affordability for voters across the country. This was an issue in both New York and New Jersey in the 2025 elections. It's been an issue in special elections. Even those who have been Trump supporters, even those in the Midwest and in red states, cost of living is at the top of mind for voters. So this is what they're going into. When they go to vote. It's not social issues or a culture wars redux. It really is the unaffordability of day to day living right now. You know, exactly right. And one of the other key races in our area, Congressman Mike Lawler is trying to be reelected as well. But he is facing a pretty strong challenge here from the Democrat. This is one of the most closely watched House races. In the region, the AP has even said that the outcome here could actually determine whether or not Democrats can sort of take back Congress. What are you seeing here in this race between Lawler and Conley? Yeah, we have some interesting races on both sides of the Hudson, I would say, and they do actually share some similarities. With Lawler and Conley, we see that the very little public polling that has been out shows her as just pulling ahead. So this race is really a virtual dead heat at this point. And we know that Lawler has had to depend on that crossing the aisle. In cycles past, and it seems like he is losing support, that bipartisan support that has carried him within this district before. We also are seeing surges in early voting turnout within places that make up the 17th. So it's some of the polling that was internal, I know that it showed Lawler ahead, but when it comes to the public polls that we've seen here, We do see a race that's neck and neck. And over in New Jersey, you said both sides of the river. We're talking about NJ7, Tom Kean and Rebecca Bennett, New Jersey's 7th congressional district, a competitive race as well. What's the latest there? Yeah, so Kean over here in the 7th is also in a nail biter. Rebecca Bennett. I'm sharing, you know, similar background with Connolly in terms of military experience. Rebecca Bennett is has been up by about four to five points in some of the few public polls that we've seen on this race. Now, we know Tom Kean Jr. has had quite the journey in the past year, absent from Congress for several months, not talking to press, not saying why he had been absent. Also, some indications in terms of stock trading during that absence. So there's a lot going in here. He has been in nail-biter races in cycles past. He took the seat back from the Democrats a couple of cycles ago. But this is a district that went for Mikie Sherrill last year, the current governor, even though it went for Trump in 2024. So there are a lot of indications here, especially given its suburban landscape, that This could be kind of the final time for Kean, especially as a lot of GOP funding pulled out in these final weeks for him. So this is a race by Cook Political Report has been shown as being closer for Democrats and a likely Democratic win. I'm Matt Koenig, assistant research professor and director of Rutgers Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. We have asked some of our viewers to scan the QR code, and we did get someone who had a question for you, Ashley. Let's see if we can bring it up. Forty-five, born and raised in the state of New York. Half my family born in the five boroughs. For me, I was born in upstate New York. What are your thoughts on the outcome of this midterm election? That is Matt from Warwick. Yeah, upstate New York is also near and dear to my heart. All of New York is, you know, I would say this is, there's a lot riding on this election. Obviously, it is the ability of government and how government will function in the future going forward if Democrats take both the House and Senate. That means Democrats will have to have Some sort of message and some sort of strategy going into this in Trump's two final years. And whether or not we see President Trump become somewhat of a lame duck in these last two years, given that. So there's a lot riding on this that also serves as a precursor to 2028. I think we'll see what happens tomorrow night on election night and if these polls turn out to be accurate. But we also need to remember these polls are snapshots in time that are telling us what voters are our thinking in the here and now. They're not meant to predict things. Everything depends upon turnout that we'll see by the end of tomorrow. All right. Turnout is the key, of course. Thank you very much. We appreciate your time. Ashley Koenig, assistant research professor and director of Rutgers Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. Ashley, if anybody wants to find your work, anything you want to give yourself a plug or anything like that, where can we check you out? Sure, I would love to. Look for all of our press releases on New Jersey on eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. Always happy to poll in the tri-state area. We know how important it is to assess the public opinion of, you know, residents and voters like you.