Hormuz shipping still faces major risks

One thing is very clear. The idea that this trade is open is frankly laughable. Just because there is a higher volume coming out does not mean that there isn't a massive cost and huge risk. for those ships. And as a result, that the Iranians are still trying to close it, trying to make sure that they control who comes in and who goes out. And they are probably collecting fees from many of the ships that they do let cross. So there is a need for a deal that opens the strait, lifts the blockade and ends this war, even though the Trump administration is trying to to make the case that the Strait is sufficiently open that that does not have to be a major point of the negotiations. I think the data shows clearly that that is not the case. There's also a rhythm and a pattern in which we see that the more the administration says that the Strait is open, the more they put out these infographics, etc., claiming that everything is now okay in the Strait, the more they have incentivized the IRGC to Strike against ships and try to make as many headlines as possible about how difficult it is to get through the Strait.