Ravens vs. Bills Picks: Back the Over With Lamar Back

Lamar Jackson probably will play today. It looks like he will for the Ravens, so he is back. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL when he is on the field. And when he's not, we see what we saw last week, which is the Ravens aren't very good. The Buffalo Bills are off a bye this week. They are laying three points. And, you know, I'll talk about this one a little bit later on. But I just think a very big danger zone for Buffalo here. This line to me is, why is it not five? Why is it not six? Why is it not seven kind of thing? Uh, so Joe, I will be backing Baltimore today, uh, because of that, you know, for me, it's less about what the results are and more about what the lines are. And, uh, I, I, I'm surprised that Buffalo's a short favorite here until they start until they stop somebody on defense. I can't back. I mean look, I can back them to win games. But I think the Ravens, you know, comes right down to the end probably for me. And I'll take points when I can. That's my view on this one. I think that's a fair assessment. Lamar Jackson is back, but he's certainly not 100% healthy. But you know what I'm going to back? Over. Why? Because neither of these defenses are special. Let me just hit some numbers here for you for the Buffalo Bills. They are ranked 30th in points allowed per game. Total yards per game, 31st. Passing yards allowed per game, 31st. Rushing yards allowed per game, 15th. Third down conversion rate, 27th worst in the NFL, 45%. That's a lot of bad stats there for the Buffalo Bills defense. So they're going to allow even, I think, not 100% Lamar Jackson. To be productive, I think, enough in this game. I know it's been tough the last couple of weeks with our good pal, Derrick Henry, the King has. He's abdicated his throne, but they have him at 80 and a half rushing yards this week. And I think Vegas is looking at an uptick from Derrick Henry. I also think the over on Josh Allen's rushing prop is something you should look at as well. Most markets have it somewhere around 35 and a half. I would go over in that one. But for me, it's the over. That is the place where I want to live in this game rather than picking a side, because whenever you have two big dynamic quarterbacks, especially the Ravens have a must win kind of situation here, they got to stop the bleeding here with this record. I'm going to agree with you. I've probably leaned towards the Ravens, but instead, rather than have to pick a side, I'm just going to go with the over here because I think points will be abundant because neither of these defenses are very good. Plus, you've got a healthy DJ Moore back for the first time in a couple weeks, too. That should help add to this total as well, potentially with another weapon on the field for Josh Allen. There's something also to keep in mind because on the earlier shows of the week, the bye weeks come up. You know, teams off the bye, and this team's off the bye. Then it's just a narrative, and it's just natural to think that You want the team off the buy. Well, folks, if you take a look at the last, I did this this week just to be sure that I wasn't crazy, but if you look at the last three years of football, there's absolutely no difference against the spread whether a team has a buy or does not have a buy. In fact, two years ago, 30% covering. And teams had to buy this year a little bit above 50%. So, folks, don't factor that in to your handicap. It sounds good from people like us that are yelling and screaming. It is not a factor. Not a factor at all going into the games in the future. Take a look at the data. You'll find exactly what I saw.