'Israeli electorate has moved rightward: Many underestimated extent of fracture in Israeli society'

Well, the complexity of the current situation then certainly requires close analysis for a better understanding. So for that, we're going to speak now to Shira Efron-Ranz, Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy. Shira, it's a pleasure to have you on the program today. Thank you very much for joining us. So, I mean, pending the rest of the results, what do you think is the biggest takeaway or the biggest takeaways from the voting thus far? Well, the biggest takeaway is obviously that the Israeli society is deadlocked and that leads us to a gridlock. It was anticipated that neither side would reach the desired 61 majority out of 120 seats in the parliament. But I think many of us, myself included, underestimated the extent of the of the fracture in Israeli society. What we have now, objectively, is Netanyahu now has 68 seats in the Knesset, four he obtained later, but 64 mandates he received in the previous elections four years ago. And he is, according to the current count, he's lost substantial numbers, but still his Likud party is the largest. And on the other side, we have what we call the Eisenkot bloc. We have the opposition that had a pretty good setup to perform well in those elections. And together with the Arab parties, they have a clear majority opposing this government. But in Israeli politics today, with the delegitimization of the Arab parties, they don't have as many good options as forming a government without violating their elections promise. so uh shira before we get uh more in depth to a couple of issues that you that you brought up there i do want to ask you ultra nationalist parties led by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich did lose representation at least as things currently stand do you think this is a consequence of right-wing voters instead coalescing uh behind like what are the remaining major ideological differences then between these different right-wing parties So it's a combination of two things. One thing has to do with arithmetic. Israeli votes, the system here, votes proportional to parties. And as voter turnout increases, the absolute numbers that parties receive shrink according to percentages. And what we've had is historical record in terms of voter turnout, and especially in the Arab public, which means there were sort of losses or diluting of the votes on both sides of the opposition on the coalition. So that's structural and has nothing to do with voter preferences for the extreme ultra-nationalist parties. But also, Netanyahu himself has invested in a campaign to coalesce the votes around him, wanting to use a narrative that he has the biggest party. And since these elections are referendum over his rule by having the biggest the biggest country in the Knesset of both the coalition, the opposition, he needs to he needs to form the next government. So so it's a combination of two things. So, Shira, this has been framed as, you know, a consequence of Israel's relatively complex electorals and parliamentary system. But at this stage, all it would really take for Eisenkot to win is to form a coalition with Arab parties. It was one thing to rule it out before the vote. But now that he's so close, I mean, why continue to refuse? I know you said that he made a promise to his voters, which is true. But at this stage, what do you think is more important to voters, ousting Netanyahu or keeping the promise to not work with Arab parties? So depending which voters you ask, and we have to say something, and it's a little bit nuanced. We can put all the Arabs together. Obviously, there are they have different differences between them. And Eisenhower, to his credit, has not ruled out sitting with the Arabs. He has articulated several conditions for conditions. And he said, any party, Jewish or Arab, that is willing to adhere to these conditions is welcome in my coalition. And if you look at the Arab parties, the party of Ram, led by Mansour Abbas, is very close to these conditions. But the Joint List, which forms together a couple of other parties, is really not there. And so I think we do have to be honest with ourselves that the Israeli-Jewish electorate has moved right and I think often espouses racist position when it comes to the Arabs. But many of the Arab leaders are not willing to also sit in a Zionist government with the Israelis. The big option is the Ra'am party that I mentioned led by Mansour Abbas. But looking at the numbers they have now and we're not in the final tally, but if they have seven and Gadi Eisenkot's block has 48, that doesn't bring you across the 61. It may not even bring you to a higher numbers than what Netanyahu has. And we have to remember it. It's not just Eisenkot himself. himself, there's Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, his coalition partners, that they may have other calculations and would want to abide by their election promise not to sit with the Arabs. So it's not as a simple solution as you propose. It's possible, but definitely not simple and politically very, very complicated for all parties. That indeed certainly clarifies things quite a bit, Shiret. It also partly answers a next question. But I do still want to ask you, Because, you know, these Arab parties, no matter how diverse they are, they represent more than 20 percent of Israel's population. And again, at least for now, their voices are kind of being silenced in a sense. What does this suggest, if anything, to at all to you in particular about the state of Israeli democracy? So I will tell you that if there was a different leadership now in Israel, it would celebrate the participation of 21 percent of its population. Basically, a society that for decades had lower voter turnout because they figured that all governments are the same from their perspective and not giving them the services that they needed. And it's an opportunity to integrate them in society and the economy in very meaningful ways. Unfortunately, at the state of where we are today, the Arabs voted not so much because of a draw to their own parties, but as a protest vote, as a reaction to the government policies of the last four years that had institutionalized treatment of them as second class citizens and even less so. And they're saying, you want to ignore us, but here we are. And we it's it's on us. And they have here the agency to push away, you know, Avigdor Ben Gvir, who is someone who is in charge of the police to push away someone like Smotrich that discriminates against them in terms of budget and making sure that they receive the services that they deserve as as as taxpayers. citizens in this country. We're still waiting to get the results, Shira, of the so-called double envelope votes, which, of course, include reservists amongst other segments of the population. We know reservists, for their part, have been frustrated about the exemption for ultra-Orthodox men from serving in the military. Do you think that this frustration and exhaustion from these ongoing military campaigns will make a difference at all in the final balance? You know, so-called the double envelopes and the soldiers, it should spread equally between the population. Traditionally, we know that the soldiers' votes turn to be more right-wing. So this exhaustion that you talk about usually is not being manifested in the voting patterns, but to the contrary. There could be surprises, but except for cementing the results we have now and possibly giving even a slightly bigger advantage to Netanyahu's bloc, it's hard for me to see a different outcome at the moment. It's very clear then, Shira, from listening to you and other analysts over the past several hours or so that Israel is still very far away from hearing the end of Benjamin Netanyahu. How do you think he will be able to wield his influence, even if the opposition does eventually succeed in forming a government? Look, he I mean, I think and you can see that both sides are basically not saying a word, which reflects their understanding that they're in a deadlock and tied. But if you look at the cards they're both dealt, Netanyahu has more cards or better cards to play because his option is either continuing as a caretaker prime minister and going for another election in which he's more likely to perform even better than he did this time. and the opposition would fare less good, or try to call for a unity government with Gadi Eisenkot or try to pull away one of Eisenkot's more junior partner, Bennett and Lieberman. And there's good reason to believe that they would go this way. And whereas the opposition has fewer cards. So I think we're not close to seeing Netanyahu's departure anytime soon. On the other hand, And, you know, it's the Middle East, but he's he's not a very young man. He might want a legacy. Who knows? And that brings me to a final question for you, Shira. It's been said time and time again that this election is a fork in the road, given what you just said. I mean, what does it mean for Israel's future in the mid to long term now that it's looking like in one form or another, Benjamin Netanyahu will indeed survive this this political challenge? Very complicated question to say, because these elections were not a referendum of Netanyahu, but not just Netanyahu, right? Netanyahu's legacy. And if Israel remains a liberal democracy, what's its future with its neighbors? What's the future on the Palestinian front? And all these internal issues about the burden sharing with the Haredi ultra-Orthodox population that is exempt basically from all services but receives all benefits. It really depends on the next coalition. The opposition can join in and claim that they have take credit for stopping the sort of judicial overhaul legislation agenda that we've seen earlier and slow down processes. But but this is a this is a day of reflection in Israel as Israelis are thinking of the way forward with Netanyahu in the foreseeable future. And also, what does it mean for Israel's future after the coming years? Shira Efron, a pleasure to hear your expertise. Distinguished chair for Israel policy at RAND. Thank you very much for your time today on France 24. Thank you.