Israel Elections 2026: Will Netanyahu Lose Power? Gaza, Iran War Explained

Is Benjamin Netanyahu finally running out of political options? Israel has voted, but the election has not delivered a clear winner. Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party remains the largest single party, but his right-wing coalition is struggling to secure the numbers needed to form the next government. And standing in his way is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who has emerged as the main face of the opposition. But here is the big question. After years of war involving Gaza, Iran and other regional fronts, why are so many Israelis questioning Netanyahu's leadership and why do millions of others still believe he is the man Israel needs? Let's break it down. What do the results tell us? As of the latest available partial count, with more than three quarters of the ballots counted, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win around 54 seats. Eisenkot's opposition bloc was on approximately 47, while Arab-led parties were projected to hold around 19 seats. Remember, these are partial figures and the final numbers could change. Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to make the final cut. So neither side, as of now, has secured a clear majority. Netanyahu can point to one important achievement. His Likud party remains the largest single party. But that does not automatically mean he can form the next government. And this is where the election gets complicated. Israel's political system depends on coalition governments. Parties must negotiate, compromise, and bring smaller groups together to reach a majority. The opposition may have enough numbers to challenge Netanyahu, but its parties are divided. and cooperation with Arab-led parties remain politically sensitive. In other words, Netanyahu is weakened, but he is not out. So, the question is what worked against Netanyahu then? The biggest question hanging over Netanyahu is October 7, 2023. That was the day Hamas launched its devastating attack on Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking 215 hostages. For many Israelis, the attack raised a fundamental question. How did the country's intelligence and security system fail so badly? Netanyahu's critics argue that as Prime Minister, he must accept political responsibility. They also accuse him of resisting an independent state inquiry into the failures that preceded the attack. Netanyahu has highlighted Israel's military achievements since then and has placed responsibility for the security breakdown on the wider security establishment. But for some voters, military action cannot replace accountability. They want answers. They want to know what went wrong, who was responsible and what will change to prevent another such disaster. This has become a major political challenge for a leader who has long presented himself as the person best equipped to guarantee Israelis the security they need. So, did the wars help or hurt Netanyahu? This is where the picture becomes more complicated. Netanyahu's supporters argue that his government has weakened Hamas, confronted Hezbollah, and taken direct military action against Iran. They see these operations as evidence that Israel is prepared to act against threats to its security. And there is an important point here. The wars themselves have not necessarily turned Israeli voters against Netanyahu. Many Jewish Israeli voters support a hard line against Hamas and Iran. But there is another side of the story. Years of conflict have taken a heavy toll. Military reservists have repeatedly been called up. Families have endured prolonged uncertainty. The economy has faced mounting pressure and Israel's international standing has come under strain. For critics, the question is no longer simply whether Israel can strike its enemies. The question is, what is the endgame? Can military operations produce lasting security? Can Israel avoid another cycle of attacks and retaliation? and what happens after the fighting ends. In Gaza, the destruction and humanitarian crisis have drawn intense international criticism. Yet, the election campaign has focused more heavily on Netanyahu's leadership, the October 7 failures and domestic political disputes than on a fundamental change in Israel's policy towards the Palestinians. The opposition too is not offering a unified shift towards a Palestinian state or a comprehensive peace settlement. So, this election should not be interpreted as a simple vote for or against the wars. It is also a vote on whether Netanyahu has delivered the security and political outcomes he promised. There are two more important domestic issues. The first is military conscription. Most Jewish Israeli men and women are required to serve in the military, but ultra-Orthodox Jewish men have benefited from broad exemptions linked to religious study. That arrangement has become increasingly controversial as reservists are repeatedly called up and the military faces manpower shortages. Many Israelis are asking why some citizens should carry the burden of military service while others remain exempt. Netanyahu's dependence on ultra-Orthodox parties makes this issue particularly difficult for him. The second issue is trust in political institutions. His controversial judicial overhaul triggered mass protests in 2023. Critics feared it would weaken judicial independence and concentrate power in the hands of the government. Netanyahu also continues to face corruption charges which he denies. For some voters, these issues are about much more than one politician. They concern the kind of country Israel should be, how power is exercised, how the courts function and whether political leaders are held accountable. So here lies the real story of this election. For Netanyahu's supporters, Israel faces serious threats. They believe a strong military response is essential and they see Netanyahu's experience as an advantage in a dangerous region. They also point to military operations against Israel's adversaries as evidence of his leadership. For his opponents, however, security cannot be measured only by military victories. They question how October 7 happened, whether the prolonged wars have delivered lasting results and whether Netanyahu's political survival has become too closely tied to the decisions of his government. And then there is the question of identity. Should Israel continue moving towards a more nationalist and religious political model or should it pursue a different balance between religion, democracy, the judiciary and the rights of its citizens? Arab citizens of Israel have also turned out in significant numbers and Arab-led parties could become crucial to the coalition arithmetic but forming a government with their support will be politically difficult. Netanyahu rejects relying on Arab parties while even parts of the opposition face their own limits on cooperation. That is why the numbers alone do not tell the whole story. So the question is can Netanyahu lose power? Yes, it is a real possibility. His coalition has fallen short of the majority in partial count and the opposition has an opportunity to challenge it but there is no guarantee that the opposition can unite negotiate a workable coalition and secure the required the magic figure of 61 seats the final outcome will depend not only on the remaining votes but also on political negotiations in the days ahead.