MN weather: Severe storm risk, tornado threat Wednesday

Welcome to your Wednesday afternoon. I'm meteorologist Keith Marler. Thank you for clicking on Fox Local or whatever you're doing. You're clicking for this October 28th, a day that doesn't feel like it at all, both in terms of warmth and in terms of a little humidity and in terms of storm opportunity as we go on into the better part of our day today. Today, highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and we have an option to even make it up into the 70s today. Partly cloudy to partly sunny sky. We broke open that cloud deck this morning. dew points approaching 60 later today and a cold front plows into all of that and promotes some thunderstorms moving across the state as a whole they'll develop in western Minnesota after lunchtime and into the early afternoon and then cross the state as we slide on into the mid to late afternoon right on into the evening hours rolling through the Twin Cities on either side of the dinner hour themselves key times in the metro are between four and eight o'clock this evening for some of those more aggressive storms and then they are out of here by around nine o'clock tonight and the sky opens up nicely on the other side of it but the kicker with all of this because we've been talking about the potential for some thunder and lightning into our Wednesday but there's enough ingredients into all of this that we actually have a severe weather threat for our afternoon and evening and that's something new that was brought in late yesterday and has continued to talk about for the day today into today key times overall broadly speaking across the state including all of the level one risk zones across the entire viewing area for the most part, between 2 and 9 p.m., but again, the kind of the bullseye zone for the metro is really between 4 and 8. Hail an inch in diameter, gusts 60 plus miles per hour, the low end thresholds to qualify for severe weather, and a couple of few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question inside any of these storms that generate, starting again in early to mid-afternoon out west and then propagating out across the state as a whole, but this is a conditional severe weather threat. Now, what do we mean by conditional severe weather threat? All the ingredients are in place, but it It is late October, so the humidity isn't quite everything it needs to be. The warmth is there, but upper 60s to near low 70s, and the sun angle is pretty low. It is essentially, for instance, today, today is my birthday. Yesterday was my daughter's birthday. I am old. And so we partied it up yesterday evening. We celebrated. We went out to dinner. We had a grand old time. We have all the stuff in place in my house to continue a celebration today for me. but I'm at work today and I am tired when I get home and although I want to party and celebrate my birthday and we have all the stuff to celebrate this evening I don't know that I'm going to want to I might just want to sit down and enjoy a quiet evening so again all the ingredients are in place for a party tonight I just don't know that I want to it's a conditional party tonight it's a conditional severe weather threat all the ingredients are in place for strong storms this evening but it might not everything come together it all is dependent so partly cloudy sky this afternoon storms ignite across the afternoon and into the evening marching across the state with our level two risk for severe weather here in the metro we'll see how strong they can get yes thunder and lightning by all means but the severity is in question stay sky aware pay attention we've got everything covered breathing just like it would be if it was july or august or april for that matter everything is still in place for us here across the board on Fox Local or wherever you're watching. And then, boom, it's out of the way quickly. Dew points fall through the night. The sky clears up. Tomorrow, gorgeous. Upper 50s to near 60 tomorrow. Lower 60s into the day on Friday. Still well above average for this time of year with two beautiful days. As we go on into both of those days, ample sunshine around the board. So put it together on the forecast today. We are talking about warmer and humid, patchy sun. Afternoon and evening storms blossom, grow, move through, then move out into the overnight hours tonight. Upper 60s, again, could be conservative. We'll see lower 70s in our viewing area by all means. and they might brush up against the metro if we get carried away with ourselves. The stronger the storms come about by the warmer the temperatures. Clearing and cooler overnight tonight as the storms move out and the sky clears out at 45 and the sunshine returns Thursday into Friday with highs in the upper 50s right around 60 to wrap up the work week. A weak little impulse rides by on Halloween. Nothing too scary there in terms of weather. Just extra cloud cover, maybe a couple of drips, very weak. And to be honest, the bulk of that looks to be across maybe southern Minnesota. Maybe some sprinkles or drizzle otherwise. It doesn't look to be ruining any plans, other than looking a little dour at times. Highs still warm in the lower 60s. Mid-60s on our first day of November as the sun goes down at 5 p.m. on the dot. And then it's all about those late 4 p.m. sunsets as we go into Monday and Tuesday with warmer temperatures still for early November. By Monday and Tuesday, average highs are in the upper 40s. And here we are, a good 14, 15 degrees above that, with a chance for some decent rains into Monday and Tuesday, your election day, with that high around 60. In the meantime, stay sky aware, pay attention to your radar, and again, keep it right here on Fox Local if you hear things that go a little too loud into your Wednesday afternoon or evening.