James Kaufman reports that Earth is currently entering a geomagnetic storm, likely reaching G1 or G2 levels. While the KP index has not yet reflected this, data from the DSCOVR and ACE satellites show significant increases in solar wind speed and plasma density following multiple M-class solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we're currently in a geomagnetic storm
caused by coronal mass ejection,
and none of the KP indexes indicate it.
I'm guessing that the next three-hour barter drop on each of them
will, in fact, put us in a G1, perhaps even G2, geomagnetic storm.
But again, we are currently in a geomagnetic storm,
which has just started.
We first saw it a few hours ago on our DSCOVR satellite
and on our ACE satellite.
They're a million miles above Earth,
and it takes about 40 minutes for those type of events to reach Earth.
So that would explain, well,
why we're not seeing a geomagnetic storm on the KP index,
although the next 3-hour barter drop,
which should drop in about 1 hour at 4 central time,
and that will be the telltale as far
as the geomagnetic storm we're currently in.
Let's get some more information.
Now, we just had a really double-wicked M-flare,
and there's probably earth components to it it's actually
from two different sunspots the second
one a sympathetic eruption from the first one
these sunspots are highly connected i'm going
to show y'all that event it is spectacular now's calling
the first M-flare a 6.8 magnitude M-flare
The second one, a 6.5 magnitude M flare.
Some pretty good explosions and associated coronal mass ejections.
It should, again, be affected toward Earth.
Now, this is only the first of the two explosions.
The second one came from here.
This one would probably be most geo-effective towards Earth.
The second one may be a little bit too far towards the limb,
although that is where our geomagnetic connection to the sun is,
that outgoing limb.
It's hard to see.
The other one happened so quickly,
I can't believe they missed it, but we will show it to you.
All right, head over to spaceweatherlive.com.
We see those last two M flares, the 6.8 here peaked
at 18.11, and the 6.5 here peaked at 18.59,
and you can see it was one after another. Bam, bam.
I wouldn't call this a sympathetic solar flare.
We have another M flare down here.
This was generated by 4479, as I indicated, and the second
was generated by 4478, a little lower, closer to the limb.
We had 4480 generated an M1.4. We'll show you all those.
And we can see by the colors here,
4479 is a Delta-class sunspot still, whereas 4478 has become
a little bit more simple and is a Beta-Gamma sunspot now.
Now, an honorable mention down here
an M1.2 was really late last night,
right about 6.15, 6.12 Central Time last night.
And we'll wait and see,
but maybe the second flare will be more geo-effective towards Earth.
4479 looks like it's awful close to that outgoing limb.
4480 also appears to set in flare.
It is very close to that outgoing limb, again,
although that's where our geomagnetic connection to our sun is.
4478, well, that flare will most probably
be geo-effective towards Earth.
We have a new sunspot they just named, 4481.
So there's a total of only four sunspots on the Earth
facing side of our solar disk.
All right, we have STL 193 angstroms.
We will put Solar Ultraviolet Imager from GOES-19 in play.
It's almost the same angstroms.
I think 193 versus 194.
Here we see that coral hole.
I don't think it was too effective towards Earth.
We see another coronal hole that's forming here that very well could be
too effective towards Earth in a few days, or more than a few days,
after it's pointed towards Earth.
We see our three active sunspots here,
and I guess that's the sunspot they named right there,
although maybe they should take a look at this area as well.
All right, over to our Space Weather Prediction Center from NOAA.
Well, we haven't been hit by all this plasma quite yet.
I think we have been hit by some plasma.
They've changed it so many times.
It's like a double impact of some sort.
And actually, they've already come and probably gone.
But we're going to take a look at the real data.
This is just a forecast.
Please note, in the forecast, it's a glancing blow.
Well, that's not a glancing blow.
So that is an incident of a glancing blow,
and this will be a glancing blow that gets headed in for tomorrow.
All right, taking a quick look at NOAA's KP Index cruise
forecast breakdown from July 3rd today to July 5th.
They have a storm hitting later, so it still might arrive.
I said the next shoot or drop might be it.
So they have it up to a G2 here.
We're going into tomorrow in V2 as well.
We haven't even seen a G1 yet, so we'll keep you apprised.
But I do see it on Discover and Ace inbound,
so I won't be surprised, I guess.
And they're talking about a third CME over here.
It's going to impact late on the 5th.
And, of course, we did get both explosions for you.
First one will come from here, and the second one will come from here.
Let's take a look at what that looks like.
That's number one, right there.
And then number two, right there.
I think we got it pretty good.
You can see that there was a CME ejection emitted.
The second one just doesn't look like it's going to be Earth-affected.
Let's see if we can see anything
from the first one.
It's going to be questionable in the first one still.
All these sunspots, all three of these are very active.
active take one last look there's a good chance
that that did create a CME first one
the second definitely definitely expelled plasma over
to our D region absorption prediction center
i'm going to move this long enough to wait it's going
to be the first of the two CMEs let's
see not yet but here right over the u.s
and the second
of two CMEs right over the u.s again
so we have the double bang bang lots
of x-ray radiation out there folks i hope everyone's
enjoying their friday afternoon
so earth did pick up a lot of x-ray radiation from both those
M-flares there's a very good chance it will see some
of the plasma associated with those flares
all right so i guess we really get
impacted just slightly here just slightly
now ACE doesn't look a thing like this uh within
the last few minutes is really what i say the
impact occurred you can see the temperature shoot up solar winds
are pushed ahead plasma is pushed
ahead and this is going to be the event here
although that doesn't push us into uh solar
weather plasma here it's not pushed until just
now up to 17 18 uh 19 centimeters cubed and wind
shot up to 570 kilometers per second
with temperature shooting way up as well so that's
the definite impact there these are the winds being pushed ahead
of the plasma that started
started hitting our satellite
that's 1 million miles away takes about 40 minutes after well
after you see this which is about 30 minutes old for it to get here
but we won't see this might
generate a G2 geomagnetic storm this might uh might
be more powerful than we think it still
seems to be rising this uh will be seen
with our 4 p.m central Kp index bar so we'll know a lot
more in just a few moments over to ACE
also a million miles above earth right between earth
and the Sun at the Lagrange Point 1
And, folks, it didn't match up here whatsoever.
This is one centimeter cubed, and so the winds did move up
But then I looked up and noticed that this chart is from yesterday
It's been turned off for some reason.
So that explained to me I had re-taped
this because I just noticed I was bitching about
never seen this run so far behind
and i tried to refresh it for you guys and then i noticed that
well it was the wrong date
and here we are with our planetary lineup if you can call it
one we've got the moon behind earth lined up
with mercury sun well in between and then the biggest
mass in our solar system jupiter on the far side
so that could be causing a lot of geomagnetic
activity and magnetics in our small solar system
that said folks we are in a geomagnetic storm
it hasn't shown itself on the kp index yet
although i believe it will it'll drop about 4 10
about 10 minutes after four o'clock
and uh well i'm sure it's going to be a g1 g2
and if anything crazy happens i'll get right back with you
but it has hit the discovered satellite
hard i would say hard it was up at 19 centimeters
and rising the temperature was extremely hot
the solar winds were almost up to 600 kilometers per second
so we will expect that next part of
drop to be well at least red god bless folks
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and lots of love to all you guys
happy fourth of july we will be holding
the um mount rushmore fireworks and drone show
and Trump's speech, and I believe that starts at 7.30.
We'll probably start a little bit earlier.
7.30 would be central time here in the U.S.
God bless, folks.
Hope to see you there.