James Kaufman reports on a sudden M4.1 solar flare originating from sunspot AR-4482. Despite a very quiet baseline and low predictions from NOAA and NASA, this flare produced a significant coronal mass ejection (CME) that may impact Earth. Additionally, a moving coronal hole suggests the possibility of a G1 geomagnetic storm occurring tonight or tomorrow.
James Kaufman, World News Report Today.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Sunspot AR-4482 is performing exactly like we thought it may.
This was a very strong solar flare-associated coronal mass ejection
that left the sun just moments ago.
You're looking at GOES-19 solar ultraviolet imager at 304 angstroms,
and it gives you a very good view of what just occurred.
That was only considered an M4.1 solar flare, but it's
definitely going to affect Earth, and it looks very strong.
Before we take a closer look at that explosion,
I wanted to show you all that it's extremely calm.
This is starting today, all day long.
Looking at our KP indexes, four of them spread across the U.S.,
We see that there's no solar wind
or plasma hitting anywhere in the United States of America.
So we are seeing no solar weather whatsoever.
All right, and there she blows.
We haven't had much action.
Actually, we moved down into B baseline, unbelievably.
And all of a sudden, we had an M4.1 solar flare.
again a sunspot group 4482 which is still
a beta gamma sunspot group i'm expecting it to become a
delta class sunspot group shortly all right noah
and nasa weren't expecting much from anything on
our sun that's earth face
and we'll take a look at all the sunspots 4482 you can see an orange
there and 4478 are both beta gamma
class sunspots the m4.1 peaked
at 1419 fairly short term as you
can see and as we saw in the charts this only
lasted about 12 minutes 13 minutes we're back to
a B baseline after that
solar flare, a B7.65.
Pretty hard to
understand, but they weren't
really expecting an X-class solar
flare today with only a 10%, or
really even an M-class
solar flare with less than 50%,
40% chance.
They were definitely expecting some
C-class solar flares, and
well, I guess you can call those solar flares.
Those used to be our baseline
just a week or two ago.
Alright, so
We have 4479.
It is now a delta-class sunspot group.
It was beta-gamma just a few moments ago.
Another beta-gamma sunspot group.
I believe that these are far enough around the outgoing limb of our sun
that they're not going to affect Earth any longer.
Directly pointing at Earth, we have sunspot group 4485 and 4481.
And now over to our culprit, 4482.
Well, it's beta gamma class.
It may or may not come more complex.
It generated our 4.1 solar flare.
This is our HMI magnetogram.
If you have a good idea of what these sunspots look like.
Not a real busy sun at this moment.
A still shot, taken today.
You can see that the coronal hole looks
like it's just about past center disk,
so we should be feeling those solar winds by some point tonight
or into tomorrow,
and I would expect a G1 geomagnetic storm,
although they're not predicting one.
So this is a named sunspot group,
and it looks much more complex than they're giving it credit for.
They're calling it simple, and this is, of course,
4482 that produced the M4.1 solar flare just now.
All right, moving over to GOES,
Solar Ultraviolet Imager, 195 angstroms.
There's that 1419, I asked y'all to remember, right in there.
And there is the ejection of plasma,
and it looks like it definitely went into the atmosphere.
It's going to be hard to convince me that all that plasma
was sucked up back into the sun, how far out it goes.
So that ends right there, but that was quite an ejection.
I'm guessing that there's a very large coronal mass ejection associated
with this solar flare, again out of AR-4482.
Hopefully no one's got any problems seeing that.
All right, it's been a very quiet day. Here we go.
it was 1419 UTC time. We'll take another look at that.
It's right over the Atlantic,
parts of the U.S., Africa, the Caribbean, South America.
It's like a much stronger flare,
even per the radio automation.
Since then, nothing's occurred for the rest of the day.
It's been quiet, quiet, quiet, and we're currently at a B7, B baseline.
We've been there once or
twice this year but i don't know if we've been as low
as a B7 all right over to SDO HMI magnetogram
really gives those well magnetic currents positive
or negative a pop this is actually not named you
can see it at the bottom of the coronal hole i thought it
was one of the named simple sunspots
i just checked and it's not named it's
also looking like positive over negative it's like
it's going to become a sunspot and become a complex sunspot fast.
That would be reverse polarity if that was white over black
in the southern hemisphere. I believe this is a little black over
a lot of white. This is negative over positive
here. And this, of course, is 4482. It just
sent us that gift. We hope that
the coronal mass ejection misses Earth, but there's a pretty good
chance it will at least see a glancing blow
from that what i would think would be a large
coronal mass ejection all right this one was taken
at 706 this morning and this is SOHO at 284 angstroms
you can see that coronal hole has moved from the central part of our sun
which means that it's
already expelled all the solar winds, it's going towards Earth,
and I would expect an impact
at some point tonight or into tomorrow early,
and well, we're probably looking at solar winds
below 800 kilometers per second,
but they might spark a G1 geomagnetic storm. This is that spot
that's unnamed, and it looks like it's a reverse polarity.
How can this go unnamed so long? It is
quite a sunspot to go unnamed and of course
this is our culprit 4482, they just gave us our present
our 4.1 M class with a large ejecta, that said god bless each
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and always remember
anything's possible bizarro world