AJ. Brown Reception Props and Primetime Betting Value

How about A.J. Brown? We talked a little of Moore for Chicago. His number is 5 1/2, which is, you know, six receptions is a lot. They threw to him 10 times last week. He only had three receptions, but at least they did throw to him 10 times. And I'm thinking, Craig, he's one of those prima donna types that if he doesn't get his receptions eventually, he's going to bitch and complain. So nationally televised game as well. all these big-time receivers and really big-time players you know if this is a one o'clock game against the Indianapolis Colts you know whatever throw it to somebody else i don't care right but prime time game whole world's watching big time contest against Chicago uh if AJ doesn't get his six receptions and again that that's you know i like it at four and a half i prefer it but if he doesn't get his six then it's not because they didn't try like he just wasn't getting open So I'll go over, you see the four and a half there, but it's up to five and a half now. I'll go over the five and a half. Yeah, I'm going to stay away from that. Look, I got to see him actually catch the ball. It wasn't for lack of trying. He couldn't catch the ball last week. I don't know what was going on, but he was open, and I think he had three drops, if I'm not mistaken. So if there was any prop I would like with Brown tonight, it would be his longest catch, because it did appear that there was twice last week where Maye had him for 30 or 40 yards and he just didn't catch the ball. I would assume variance evens that stuff out, Scott, and he just had some rust and hadn't played in a long time. But generally, New England receivers, and I know Brown is cut from a different cloth, but New England receivers, it's hard for me to see eight catches 140 yards from any New England receiver, and this is going on, I don't know, 10 years? It feels like it's going on pre-Brady or Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss-type years. Edelman so uh that would be the one thing i would play longest reception maybe in the 30s tonight for him go over that whatever that number is i'm gonna guess somewhere in the low 20s or 18 20 something like that uh yeah i i could see him i could see him catching a bomb not maybe for a touchdown but maybe a 30 40 yard catch tonight that i that thank you okay so 25 and a half was the number all he has to do is put his hands out and catch the ball last week twice and he goes over that easily exactly well chris is right no no he's and he dropped the ball twice so got to do it tonight and by the way scott here's what i would tell you is that if you're if you're in on any of his props tonight and he can't and he drops an early one get off because then there's something then there's something then then then you got Steve Sax throwing us to first base you know like get get off get on get on get on something else here's here's a great example of how you should do shopping to get a better number on the same site right so i looked it up you know because i i know i saw it at minus 180 or so this afternoon right so i looked up AJ Brown all receptions and all receptions they give you two or more three or more four more five or more whatever right so when you go to five or more that in essence is over under four and a half right I mean that's right five receptions of course so when you look for alt receptions AJ Brown five receptions or more minus 180 if you scroll all the way down and I don't know why FanDuel does this but they give you the alt numbers first if you scroll all the way down and go to AJ Brown total receptions that's where you see four and a half which again is five at minus 158 you're saving yourself 22 cents and that's where our guys got the minus 158 so good job guys all right so it's the same same site it's the same I need five receptions one bet's making you lay a buck 80 and the other you know bet over four and a half is making you lay only 148 or 158 gotcha okay fair enough yeah they I just I'm not a big I'm not a huge I think Brown was really good with Philadelphia I don't think you'll see the same numbers with New England I I just I you know you know what me a little bit of and I guess last week sort of was the goes against my theory but uh it reminds me a little of when Metcalf left Seattle and went to Pittsburgh and expecting the same results and we didn't get him now last week Metcalf had maybe his biggest game as a Steeler so maybe this is the beginning of something for him but until AJ Brown you know Scott until he has his six for a hundred which he had all the time in Philadelphia I'm not gonna bet on six for a hundred until he does it can't do it