Surviving The Fourth Turning | Neil Howe
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Famed demographer Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning, has just finished writing a new book with practical advice on how to survive it.
If history is any guide, we need to prepare for:
1) a financial collapse
2) political collapse, and
3) conflict among the great powers
In advance of the new book's availability to the general public, we discuss its key recommendation in this video.
#fourthturning #demographics #marketcrash
0:00 Book overview: financial collapse, political collapse, and great-power conflict
3:50 Practical preparation and Pascal's wager
8:00 Agency versus fear-mongering and fatalism
11:00 Critique of worst-case scenario books
14:00 Lost knowledge of food production and just-in-time systems
16:00 Decline of repair skills and mechanical know-how
19:00 Community as the weakest form of capital
21:30 Importance of real social cohesion versus acquaintances
22:40 Red zones versus blue zones and money versus time
24:20 Population density and levels of social engagement
26:40 Why community cannot be bought in a crisis
29:50 Generational loss of basic skills (navigation, knots, etc.)
32:00 From Fourth Turning to First Turning and the call to rebuild
37:00 Infrastructure vulnerability and the ease of grid disruption
42:20 The coming “main show”: great-power war
44:00 Timeline of the current Fourth Turning (through the mid-2030s)
47:00 Rising wars, defense spending, and public risk perception
49:30 Historical pattern of strongman leaders in Fourth Turnings
50:30 Why leaders like Lincoln and FDR were revealed at the time
52:30 Trump as an example of the wrecking-ball dynamic
56:00 Nationalism, populism, and the turn toward strongmen
57:30 Socialization of gains and losses during national crisis
1:00:00 Government ownership of industry in total war (WWII example)
1:05:00 Limited appeal of democratic socialism and differentiation from extremists
1:12:00 How extreme-left chaos historically strengthens the right
1:15:00 Cultural rediscovery of roots and immigration concerns
1:17:50 Europe’s nationalism-versus-collective-defense dilemma
1:22:40 The ATFT Fourth Turning ETF and its multi-strategy approach
1:27:30 Volatility drag and why arithmetic returns mislead
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