Week 7 Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Best and Worst Matchups

Hey everyone and welcome to another edition of Fantasy with Fabs right here on SITV. Of course, every week I'll bring you my top starts and sets to help you set your fantasy football lineups. And before we kick off, just a reminder that the Bills, and yes, Josh Allen, the Chargers, the Commanders, and Jaguars are all on a bye this weekend. With all the injuries around the National Football League, there's a really good chance you'll have to start some players you might otherwise prefer to sit for another week. And we're going to get things going, as we always do, with the quarterbacks. And you're going to notice a trend on start 'em and sit 'em this week. I'm going to be picking on the Lions. And let's start off with Jordan Love, who's been on absolute fire over the last couple of weeks. 20-plus fantasy points in two straight games. And I think he has another big game this week, again, against the Lions and their vulnerable defense. Believe it or not, but Detroit has allowed all five quarterbacks they have faced to score over 21 points. and Josh Allen beat them for more than 40 points. This is the worst defense in the league when it comes to stopping the pass, which means it's the best defense in the league for fantasy quarterback matchups. Start Jordan Love in what should be an absolute barn burner. I'm also going to stick with Matthew Stafford. Now, I liked him last week. The numbers weren't terrible. He has scored 20 plus fantasy points in three of his last five starts. And I do like the matchup against the Raiders. They've given up the sixth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. And they've also allowed the seventh in EPA in terms of expected points added per game to that position as well. Now I get it. Devontae Adams is out for the next six to 10 weeks. That hurts. But keep in mind that last year in three games without D.A., Stafford still averaged over 24 fantasy points. So this is a loss, but it's not enough of a loss to keep Stafford out of your starting lineup when the matchup is favorable. Another quarterback I absolutely love this week is C.J. Stroud. how about this guy? I mean, talk about rising from the ashes. He's been on absolute fire lately, 20 plus fantasy points in three straight games. He's completing 72% of his passes in that time, and he's only committed one giveaway. So he's been extremely accurate. And the Texans, they have no ground game to speak of. David Montgomery's banged up. Woody Marks couldn't get the job done last week. They're throwing the football and throwing it often, and they're finding success. Also keep in mind, you've got Nico Collins and now Marvin Harrison Jr. Tank Dell is back and Jalen Knoll has been playing very well. So Stroud has a full complement of weapons. He's got the Giants this week. They've allowed three quarterbacks to beat them for over 26 fantasy points. So CJ Stroud, that's right. CJ Stroud is a top 10 fantasy quarterback this week. How things have changed. Now let's move on to the sit-em quarterbacks. And I'm going to tell you to sit Patrick Mahomes. Now, I know sometimes I get a little crazy. I put a big name out there and tell you, well, maybe temper expectations. That's the case with Mahomes. Last week against the Chargers and the winless Chargers at that, he scored 10 and a half points. In his last three games, Mahomes is averaging 14 and a half points. That's not good. Now, I know injuries are a concern, right? Rasheed Rice has been banged up. Taequann Thornton's out for the season. But also keep in mind, the Chiefs are leaning on Kenneth Walker a ton. He's averaging 24 touches a week. That is insane. He never averaged more than 18.1 in any one year in Seattle. So guess what? They are leaning on the run more than they have to lean on Patrick Mahomes. And by the way, revenge game against Seattle for Ken Walker. They're going to want to get him in the football. And Seattle has allowed the second fewest points per game to quarterbacks. So beware Patrick Mahomes. Next up is Tyler Shuff. He's playing the Steelers in Paris this weekend. Now, admittedly, I'm kind of on the fence about him because he's been really good. I mean, basically dating back to the middle of last season and quarterback's thin right now, but I don't like the matchup. The Steelers defense has allowed only one quarterback to beat them for more than 12.9 fantasy points, and they've posted the fifth lowest EPA per game to quarterbacks after the first six weeks of action. So I get it. Shuff's been very good. you may have to play him. The matchup, based on the numbers, is not great. And finally, Sam Darnold. I mean, listen, simply put, Sam Darnold's been brutal this year. He's had one good game. That was against Washington. Their defense is Swiss cheese. Other than that game, he hasn't scored more than 13.3 points in a game this year. He's been held under 12 points three times, including each of his last two games. And now he's got the Chiefs. It's a huge Sunday night matchup their defense has allowed the fourth fewest points per game the quarterbacks and the seventh fewest EPA like this is not a good matchup for Darnold so even in a super flex league you may want to sit Sam Darnold this week in what could be another stinker for the veteran here's a couple of streaming options for you at the quarterback position i know Bo Nix has been brutal i get it but desperate times call for desperate measures and the cardinals have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and then if you really want to get nuts How about Geno Smith? I get it. He's really hard to trust, but Miami has allowed the ninth most points to quarterbacks per game this season. All right, folks, welcome back to Fantasy with Fabs, and let's move on to the tight end position, and we'll start with Tucker Kraft. I told you guys I'm picking on the Lions this week, and Kraft has started to wake up. He had a slow start to the season in his last three games, 36.8 fantasy points, and I've got to keep him active this week against Detroit. Their defense has allowed not one, not two, not three. I'm going to keep going. Seven tight ends to beat them for over 13 points this year. This is crazy. We're only in week seven and no team in the league has allowed more points or a high PA per target per game than Detroit. This is a smash spot for Tucker Kraft. He's a must start. Get him into your lineup. I also like Dallas Goddard against the Dallas Cowboys. Now, quietly, he's had a pretty good start to the season. He scored at least 9.8 fantasy points three times. He's averaging right around 12 points per game. For a tight end, that's really good. And last week, in the first game without Jalen Hurts, he had a pretty strong game. He was targeted eight times by Tanner McKee. The Cowboys defense is kind of in the middle of the pack against tight ends, so this isn't a good or bad matchup, but tight ends thin volume is huge. Goddard's getting that volume and the Cowboys defense. I mean, let's be honest. It's not very good. So start Dallas Goedert and start Tyler Higbee. And you can even go with Colby Parkinson here too. And here's why first off Davante Adams is out six to 10 weeks. That's not good. And the Rams number two wide receiver is no great shakes, which means I think LA is going to start running more multiple tight end sets, more 12 more 13 personnel and that means good things for Higbee now he didn't have a great game last week but overall Higby's been pretty darn good and I think because they're going to run more multiple tight end sets and because DA is out Higbee and Colby Parkinson are both very streamable options this week against the Raiders who have struggled against tight ends I'd prefer Higby out of the two but Higby and Parkinson are both streamers this week in what could be a high scoring game in Sin City. Now let's move on to the tight ends that I would fade or at least temper expectations. And I'm going to start off with Travis Kelce. And I made all the jokes over the first three games. Boy, getting married to Taylor Swift has really helped his fantasy value. 49 combined fantasy points since then, 12.8 points on nine targets combined. That's not very good. Now I get it. Tight ends thin. You're probably going to have to play them. But once again, temper your expectations against Seattle. Only one tight end has beaten the Seahawks for more than 8.8 fantasy points and allowed the fourth lowest EPA per target of tight ends this year. So I get it. Kelsey's a big name. He's hard to sit because tight end is thin, but you may want to temper your expectations. Another big name that should be on your bench this week is Mark Andrews. I mean, listen, he's become impossible to trust in fantasy lineups. He has scored single digits in two straight games and four of six games this year. And this week's opponent, the Bengals, they've allowed the eighth most points per game to tight ends. So the matchup looks really good. But if you look deeper into the numbers, most of the damage was done by Dalton Schultz. He beat them for 26 points back in week two. Other than that, they haven't really given up massive stat lines to tight ends. So unless you're desperate, I'm going to sit Mark Andrews against Cincinnati. And finally, Jake Ferguson. And this one hurts because you guys know I am a Cowboys fan and a, I guess, struggling one at that. Ferguson has scored double digits once in his first six games. And now he's starting to lose playing time to Brevin Spann-Ford. In fact, Ferguson played just 53.2% of the snaps last week. Spann-Ford played 46.8%. Now compare that to week five when Ferguson played 83 of the snaps and i mean you could do the math we're talking about a 30 decrease that's a huge decline and now the eagles are not awful against tight ends they're not good they're not bad but i just don't trust ferguson based on what we saw last week with that declining snap count and really just an overall lack of fantasy production here's a couple of streamers for you this week i already mentioned Colby Parkinson against the raiders i think you could play him if you're in a pinch and desperate at the tight end position and I also will tell you that if you want to roll the dice Kenyon Sadiq is worth a look Miami's defense has allowed four tight ends to beat them for 10 plus points this season welcome back my friends it's fantasy with fabs we're talking starts and sits and we're going to move on to the running back position and I'm going to talk about Jalen Warren and last week I told you to play him but I was a bit concerned about Rico Dowdle? Well, the concern was warranted because Warren did not put up a good stat line. In fact, in three games where Rico Dowdle has been active, Warren's averaged 9.9 points. In the games where Rico's been out, he's averaged over 24 points. So this certainly hurts his value, but I can't sit Warren against the Saints. Their defense has allowed six running backs to beat them for more than 17 points in six weeks and three running backs have scored more than 25 points against them. And so does Warren's value take a hit with Dowdle in the mix? Absolutely. The numbers prove it. But is it enough for me to sit Warren? Absolutely not, especially with the bye weeks here. And this matchup is simply too good to ignore. I'm also going to play Kyron Williams. And you may think, well, wait, Fabs, this is kind of low-hanging fruit. But Williams is coming off of his worst game of the year. He scored just 9.7 fantasy points in that crazy loss to Arizona. Who would have thought that? and he lost work to Blake Corum who scored more points than him last week but I am still starting Kyron with confidence this week why he's playing the Raiders their defense has given up the sixth most fantasy points and they've allowed the seventh highest EPA per game to running backs and four running backs have beaten them for more than 17 fantasy points in the last five games so will Williams continue to split the workload with Blake Corum I think he will but is he still a good bet to put up a solid stat line in Sin City this weekend? I say yes. In fact, I think you could play both Williams and Corum. That's how good the matchup is. And I also like Bucky Irving. Now, last week on the show, I told you not to play him. I didn't love the matchup against Pittsburgh. He had a stinker, fewer than seven fantasy points, but I think he rebounds this week. This week's got a much better matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Their defense is fifth in fantasy points allowed, two running backs on a per game basis, and only six teams have a lot of higher rushing success rate. Carolina's been really generous to running backs. Last week, they gave up 15 fantasy points to Damian Pierce, who was on the Eagles practice squad like two weeks ago, guys. So this is a good matchup. I get it. Bucky was bad last week, but I think that was predictable. I am getting him back in my lineup this week. Start Bucky Irving in that NFC South battle. Now let's get to the sit-em running backs. And we got to talk about Cam Akers. We have to. because I'd be lying to you if I knew what his role is going to be this week against the Texans. I have no idea, but I do know that he played six snaps last week, six, and he didn't touch the ball once in that loss to New Orleans. So everybody who played him got bupkis. It was brutal. Now, John Harbaugh, the coach of the Giants, started Najee Harris, and now Najee Harris just got caught. So you're going from four running backs to three. But Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary led the Giants in snaps and fantasy points. Tracy had a couple of touchdowns. So this week, the matchup, not great for any of these players, including Skedaddle. The Texans are really tough on running backs. So it's really impossible to start not only Cam Skedaddle, but even Devin Singletary and to a lesser degree, Tyrone Tracy. because the rotation, it's up in the air, and the matchup is not good. That Giants backfield has become a disaster. I miss the days of Tiki Barber. Now let's go on to Emmanuel Wilson, who I think the carriage has turned back into a pumpkin. I loved him in his first couple of starts for Seattle, and he put up very good numbers. Two touchdowns and had over 40 combined fantasy points, but last week, 5.2 points. And his touch share dropped from 51% in the previous two games to only 26.4% in week six. Zach Charbonnet is getting close to return. I think Wilson's a risk-reward flex against the Chiefs. They've allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-lowest EPA per game to running backs this season. I guess Emmanuel Wilson, it was fun while it lasted. And then finally, Tony Pollard. I told you not to play him last week. 7.6 fantasy points, even though he had 19 touches. And that's where it's tough to sit in as a flex because the volume is typically there. But even with the volume being there for Pollard, I just can't play him. And he's still averaging fewer than nine points per game. He's got the Browns this week. They've allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They've allowed the sixth lowest EPA. And this is not going to be a high scoring game. Look at the total. It's under 40. I am going to sit Tony Pollard. Here's a couple of streaming options for you at the running back position. I already mentioned Blake Corum. I think you can play both him and Kyren Williams this week and you'll be in a pretty good spot. I also like J.K. Dobbins this week. He has scored 13-plus fantasy points in two straight games. And in those two games, his touch share has risen to near 45%. So it looks like he's back being at least the 1A in that rotation with R.J. Harvey. Start J.K. Dobbins. All right, everybody. Welcome back to Fantasy Football, the Starting System edition. And, of course, as always, we appreciate you guys tuning in. And we're going to end with maybe the most important position in fantasy football. the wide receivers and i'm going to continue with that theme of picking on the Detroit Lions my big start this week is Matthew Golden. Has he not been golden this year? I know it's a bad dad joke i just couldn't help myself but look at the numbers i mean 15 plus fantasy points four times he's averaging just under 17 points per game and he and Christian Watson have become one of the best fantasy duos among wide receivers on the same team in the National Football League and again Lions this week they have one of the league's worst defenses overall four wide receivers have already beaten them for over 19 points and the game total is in the mid 50s this is going to be a high scoring game at Ford Field start Matthew Golden and obviously start most of your Packers this week because that's going to be an absolute fantasy smorgasbord I also like Jamison Williams this week in that same game against Green Bay now he's been on a fantasy heater over his past two games almost 35 combined fantasy points and i think he keeps it up against green bay and again what is projected to be a very high scoring for green bay's defense has allowed double digit fantasy points to eight wide receivers eight and five of them have had at least 16 fantasy points and williams also beat green bay for nearly 27 fantasy points in his last meeting that was last year. This is a massive fantasy matchup. Start Jamison Williams and kind of like starting all of your Packers. You're starting all of your prominent Lions this week as well. And you're also going to start Jalen Coker. I mean, he has been a pleasant surprise. I mean, think about it. This guy was drafted in the double digit rounds as a wide receiver for wide receiver five. And after his four games this year, he's averaging nearly 17 fantasy points. I that's better than George Pickens, which is crazy. And he's seen nine or more targets in three of those games. So Bryce Young is looking to him early and often. Now I'll tell you, the Buccaneers have been a bit hit or miss against wide receivers in terms of allowing fantasy points to them. They've allowed some really big games and they've allowed some stinkers. And some of those stinkers were to some big names, but look at last week, DK Metcalf and Jeremy Bernard both scored over 20 points apiece against Tampa Bay so they can be had start Jalen Coker and start Ted McMillan and Bryce Young this week as well in that NFC South matchup now let's get to the wide receivers that you're going to sit and I'm going to start with Michael Wilson and I have to be honest with you I've been dead wrong about Wilson the last couple of weeks I thought that when Arizona traded away Marvin Harrison Jr. that the fantasy floodgates would open up and Wilson would just go bonkers. That has not happened. Over the last couple of weeks, his numbers have been not even mediocre. And we were talking about a guy who hasn't even finished in the top 30 among wide receivers over the last couple of weeks. Why? Defenses are suddenly double teaming him. They couldn't do that when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field. That's an issue. He's also got Denver this week. They've allowed the third fewest fantasy points per target to perimeter receivers. Again, dorky stat, but it's important. They've also allowed the 10th lowest EPA at the position, regardless of alignment. Now, maybe you're going to argue that Wilson is due, and maybe he is, but the matchup's not great. I would temper your expectations if you do start Michael Wilson. And the same goes for Carnell Tate, who literally has been all or nothing, okay? He scored 19 or more points in two of his last three games, and that third game, he had 1.6. So it's really hard to trust him right now, especially with Kim Ward being just so absolutely brutal in terms of throwing the football. So take this week as a risk-reward flex against Cleveland. Now, they've kind of been middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to perimeter receivers this season. So it's not a terrible matchup. It's not a great matchup. But what worries me is that the total is really low. I mean, we're talking about a game that's at 38 and a half. So neither one of these teams is going to score a lot of points. I could see this being a 14-10 type of game, 17-14 type of game, and I could see Cardinal Tate putting up a modest stat line. So at best, he is a risk-reward flex, and I'm also going to sit down Josh Downs. Now, this guy has gone into a statistical spiral over the last three weeks. He hasn't scored more than 8.7 points in any of those three games, and last week, Keenan Allen, who's certainly no spring chicken, had more targets and scored more fantasy points than Josh Downs, not only just last week, but since week three. So I have Allen ranked ahead of Downs this week over at Sports Illustrated, and I'm keeping Downs on the sidelines this week against the Vikings. They've allowed the fourth lowest EPA per target and the third fewest EPA when you're talking about points added to wide receivers. They have been very tough. Overall, Minnesota has allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Outside of Jonathan Taylor, who I'm even worried about as well against Minnesota, there isn't a guy I would start. against Minnesota's ferocious defense now for a couple of streaming options I already mentioned Jeremy Bernard 21 targets in the last two weeks and the Saints have been generous to wide receivers so start Jeremy Bernard and how about Ryan Flournoy of my beloved Dallas Cowboys nine targets last week 29 combined fantasy points over the last two games the Eagles matchup is pretty favorable so Flournoy is worth a look for those who are desperate and that will wrap up another edition of Fantasy with Dabs right here on SITV. As always, thank you for tuning in and make sure you tune in on Sundays from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Eastern as Aaron Coscarelli and I answer all, and I mean all of your fantasy lineup questions leading right into kickoff. Thanks for watching and good luck in week seven.