Peter Zalmayev: 'Ukraine was showing all sorts of cards that Trump took away and gave to Putin'

Well, we're going to head to Russia now. Vladimir Putin has welcomed Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to St. Petersburg today. Witkoff told Putin he had brought with him new ideas on ending the war in Ukraine. Steve Witkoff flew in, of course, after conducting what a U.S. official called constructive talks in Oslo with Ukraine's President Zelensky, as well as some European and NATO representatives. All this, as Donald Trump said, it was time for Ukraine to end the war, or in his words, face a very bad thing. Well, let's listen to a short Witkoff. Your decision to remove export controls on diesel oil from Russia and to sell not just to the United States, but also to the world at large, in the midst of this economic shock, I think that was a really important act on your part, sir. And we've brought some papers for you to look at is really some ideas about the different elements of some sort of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Well, for more on all of this, we are now joined by Peter Zalmayev of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative. That's an international non-profit that works for the promotion of democracy and human rights in post-Soviet countries. He joins us from Kiev. thank you very much for your time very good to have you with us we do appreciate your time I want to talk later about this collapse really in the already shaky relationship between Donald Trump and Zelensky but first of all let's look at the immediate Steve Witkoff arriving saying he has new ideas to show Putin we have had what many seem to see as many pushes basically for you Ukraine to surrender. What do you think might be in his new ideas box? I suspect there are no new ideas. I suspect that whatever we've seen so far, the Trump administration has pretty much taken all the cards that it claimed Ukraine never had, and actually it did have, recently being able to recapture some of the land in the Donbass, having struck some significant oil facilities in Russia. Ukraine was showing all sorts of cards, that Donald Trump decided to take away from Ukraine and to give to Vladimir Putin. What you just saw on your screens with Stephen Witkoff meekly suggesting some list of ideas after thanking Vladimir Putin for opening up the spigot of diesel to America and to the world, which will net Russia upwards of $5 or $6 billion in the immediate future to be able to continue financing this war machine in Ukraine. That is pathetic. That is humiliating. That does not encourage Vladimir Putin to meet Donald Trump halfway or a third of the way or a quarter of the way. He sees that Donald Trump is flailing. He sees that Donald Trump is willing to look for scapegoats on the eve of midterm elections coming up to deflect attention from his morass, his fiasco in Iran. He's now chosen Ukraine to be the scapegoat for this. So I just don't see how there's any motivation for Putin to step down from his maximalist demands when he sees that Donald Trump is doing everything that he wanted. You know, the Western alliance is fraying. Now there's talk of a tripartite meeting of the greats, China, Russia and America. And I think Donald Trump may be on board with it, with no Europeans invited, with Ukraine not being invited to that meeting. I'm seeing, I'm smelling a Yalta 2. I'm smelling another Munich where, you know, we're seeing appeasement of the aggressor. So I just don't see anything good coming out of it with such mediators, you know, such as Kushner and Witkoff. On top of everything else, we're hearing that they're being offered a lucrative deal to buy assets of the Russian giant Lukoil. So there's much that we still don't know. And if the Democrats win at least the lower house, the House of Representatives in Congress, maybe we'll find out as you know what exactly has been going on under the table as a result of hearings that the Democrats will certainly hold on this issue of a potential collusion of the Trump administration with Vladimir Putin. You are certainly very pessimistic about all of this. You're in Kyiv. We've seen this series of blows, you've just talked about them, that disadvantage Ukraine. What is the mood there at the moment? Are people really losing hope? Well, you know, there's a, you know, whenever we hear about how tough the times are for for Ukrainians. And, you know, there's a comparison to be made with, you know, the first days of war. And a lot of folks will tell you that, listen, you know, we had a we faced much more insurmountable odds right in the first few weeks of the invasion, even though Donald Trump is now saying that it was just a silly general with his silly decision to divert his column of tanks across fields rather than staying on a tarmac road. He's belittling, you know, and that cost the Russians this victory, which would have happened inevitably within four days. Of course, is once again showing his complete ignorance of what was occurring okay uh but be that as it may um the comparison i think is not very valid and what we're facing now is a total abnegation of the role of a ally from our biggest most important ally the united states and we see how if as the united states goes so will the rest of europe the financial times is already reporting that Europeans are thinking about engaging with Vladimir Putin directly. Of course, we're also facing very important elections coming up in France and in Germany, and signals are being sent that should new powers come to win these elections, they will cut off all aid to Ukraine. So the trajectory is quite different. In 2022, we had the sympathy of the world on our side. Now we see fraying transatlantic unity. We see disarray. And once again, it all stems from Donald Trump's decision to cozy up to Vladimir Putin for whatever reason. So, of course, it does nothing to boost the morale of either folks behind the front lines in Kiev or men fighting and actually conquering back some of the territory the Ukraine lost in the Donbass. This is a very, very disheartening development. You mentioned this idea that public opinion is turning away from support for Ukraine within Europe. Certainly if Marine Le Pen is to be elected in France, the polls show she is riding high. The election has not happened, but there is no guarantee that will happen at all. If she does, she's made clear she's cutting off funding to Ukraine. And around Europe, other leaders are becoming more and more vocal in their criticism of Ukraine. You've just said all that. You've talked about this idea, you know, that the Yalta conference, you know, that Putin, Xi and Trump will carve up the world. What can Zelensky do about this? The Europeans are going to ask the UK and Canada to contribute more. But every country is in such difficulty. What can he do to turn public opinion back towards Ukraine? You know, this idea that Ukraine is Cuba and, you know, Ukraine belongs to Russia, Cuba belongs to the U.S., that's how it is. Well, of course, that's, you know, I think that Vladimir Putin is trying to manipulate Donald Trump into suggesting that he may be of help to him in Iran, that he may actually ask the Iranians to stand down. Then, of course, he's promising, or at least he's sending a signal that Trump will be able to boast the release of an American citizen who actually fought on behalf of Ukraine to be able to show that, look, you know, my diplomacy is producing concrete results. Of course, that should not distract us from the larger, you know, capitulation to Vladimir Putin that the American side is showing. And paradoxically, it's helping Zelensky. Once again, Zelensky's been kind of on the wane. There's a lot of fatigue with not just the war in Ukraine, but with Zelensky himself. And in swoops Donald Trump with this sort of rhetoric, that boosts Zelensky's standing with Ukrainians. There's a sort of a rallying around the flag, rallying around Zelensky effect, etc. And what can he do now? I mean, he's been I think he's been doing what he can. Of course, there's something to be said about maybe trying to change the rhetoric when it comes to Trump. I'm not sure it's really helping this sort of tension that we're, you know, that we're witnessing. There needs to be kind of a step down from that. We've seen it. We've been there before. and I think that there needs to be a more flexible formula found maybe Zelensky would have been well advised to actually lay off hitting Russian oil facilities at least up until the election of November 3rd I'm not sure what it really how much it benefits us to continue this and continue antagonizing Trump or at least giving him this rhetorical ammunition against Ukraine to be able to deflect and say the Ukrainians are guilty for the rise in oil prices rather than my adventure or misadventure in Iran, etc. Everything else, I think Zelensky is doing correctly. He's engaging directly with European leaders, with the UK, etc. So they're looking for a formula of how to provide Ukraine with some sort of a security guarantee in case of a peace agreement that will stop just short of a full-fledged NATO membership, which is a non-starter for Vladimir Putin. We'll see how that works. But if that formula is found and it's convincing enough, it could be also presented to Donald Trump to where we could put the ball back in Russia's court. If you're not happy with this NATO arrangement, then here's this ad hoc arrangement with individual members of NATO that would guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty. And then I think Russia would have to respond to that. And Donald Trump would have to actually listen to that. If Europe is able to provide a unified front, especially in the time that we have until these elections happen, after which there's just no saying whether there'll be any sort of, you know, agreement on Ukraine ever again. Well, I want to thank you so much for joining us, Peter Salmayev, of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, that non-profit which works towards democracy and human rights in former Soviet countries. Thank you so much for your time. Really interesting insights.